An idea has been kicking around in my head recently. is there a sub optimal # of opponents for say AQ or AK? or any hand for that matter.

what I'm saying is we all know these are good hands but is there a point where a certain # of opponents make them -EV? for example if 7 people limp into the pot and you have AQ on the button and both blinds will call regardless if you raise, would this hand show a profit for you? and is raising the right play?

Just a theory, let me know what you think.

If you're talking no-limit, then yes because of the money you'll be able to extract when you hit the flop hard.

If we're talking limit, which I'm presuming you were, I think it would depend on how everyone would play after a flop. For instance, if you hit a Q-high flop, will people with second or third pair still pay? Will people with an A or K pay to chase their overcards? Will the any two suited crowd be compelled to chase as well? Don't think I'd raise in this situation though, would rather see the flop cheap and make my determination about how aggressive to play from there.

If its the sort of table that's loose pre-flop but clams up tight after the flop (rare, but I"ve seen them), then I might be inclined to lay it down unless my read was that a raise here combined with a bet post-flop stands a chance to pick it up for me regardless.

Are we assuming random or playable hands that limped? Do they all go to showdown?

If we are looking at them all goign to showdown, then its a pot equity problem. Since this is mainly a theoretical excersize, I'll use AQ, and find were it starts to have (-) pot equity. Obviously of course, real life youd want a different amount of players, since 2-3 is easier to beat than 5-6.

Gimme a few minutes to run some numbers

lets assume that they will play any hand preflop but to continue on post flop they need at least 1 pair or an open ended straight draw or flush draw.

AHha, thanks steve, thats kinda beyond my simming power.

Oh I crunched some numbers:

Pot equities for AQo vs AA-22, all "20" hands, Suited aces, suited connectors >=56s (AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo):

1 opponent: 56.7%
2 opponents: 38.7%
3 opponents: 26.3%
4 opponents: 19.7%
5 opponents: 15.2%

By pure simming, to showdown, vs playable hands, AQ has negative Pot equity vs 4 or more players, and barely + PE at 3 players. You really want no more than 2 players to hedge your bets.

This actually is how most of like to play AQ, HU or 3 handed. Notice the difference between 1 and 2 opponents is only about 1.4% +PE ([56.7-50]-[38.7-33.3]). That minuscle percentage is nulified by the fact that HU, you can only win 1 bet per bet wagered, but for only 1.4% less PE, you can double that win rate.

So by these nukbers, I would assume 2 opponents to be the ideal number to play AQo against.

ok so its ideal at 2, but does it ever become negative??

the one problem with the sim is that it only shows pots won, there will be many times you fold the winning hand or would not make it until the turn or river.

give me some more times to fiddle with this, I know a person who ran a similar a few years back. stay tuned!!!

It becomes -PE at 4 opponents. Everybody should have an equal 20% chance of winning, but with AQo vs 4, you only have a 19.7% chance, therefore its negative.

so with 3 limpers you should fold AQ? assuming the BB is the 4th opponent

Well perhaps... but no.

A raise may eliinate some of these limpers. This numbers really dont incorporate folding equity and general pokery skill.

A long as you realize that your pre-flop Pot equity is break even at best.

This sim I did realy shows how vulnerable AQ truly is. You read the occasional lamenting article from pros saying how overvalued AQ really is. Feeney has a good one in "Inside the POker Mind" titled "Do you pass the AQ test?". AQ is truly a backbreaker in tough games, it usually gives you second best hand, or so they say.

Point is, AQo is A LOT weaker than most people realize. It is a much bigger jump from AK to AQ than from AQ to AJ. AK can flop TPTK either way without being vulnerable to overcards. AQ on down cannot do this, Every time they hit TPTK, they will be open to overs landing.