Completely hypothetical scenario...

It's the middle of some random $10 MTT. I've got $3600 in chips and the BB is $200 (M = 12.) I'm playing a hand where the villain shoves all in on the turn. At this point I know I'm a 2 to 1 dog the pot is giving me exactly 2 to 1 on my money. To call the villain's all in, I'll be risking half of my stack, leaving me with $1800 and an M of 6.

Call or fold?


Generally speaking, in these situations where the decision is pretty much 50/50, is it usually wiser to err on the side of caution and just fold the hand? The reason I ask is because last night I realized that I usually lean towards the call in marginal situations such as these. It's like I look for an excuse to call and getting even money is often good enough for me.

M is the total of blinds and antes so would include the sb too. If it was say 150/300 your M would be only 8.

As for the question if it is EXACTLY 2 to 1 dog and EXACTLY 2 to 1 odds, I fold. It's break even and (hopefully this makes sense) the extra chips you win half the time aren't as important as the chips you lose the other half.

In saying that it depends on the reward of knocking someone out, eg. how many are left, payout structures etc. If the top 20 get paid and there's 80 left, it's an easier fold than if there are 10 left and there's a huge jump in prize money for final table.

Originally Posted by davidab157

M is the total of blinds and antes so would include the sb too. If it was say 150/300 your M would be only 8.

Ooops. I meant the BB is $200 (I wrote $300 because I was thinking of the total in the pot before the cards are dealt.) Fixed.