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Thread: Implied odds+

  1. #1
    PokerForums God the alex's Avatar
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    Default Implied odds+

    One thing about this forum that I love is we don't abuse math to justify fishing. But where are spefic situations in limit or NL where implied odds are changing your decision on whether to call, raise, or fold. We've discussed this is Steve's limit threads and the situations have become scattered.

    Mainly, looking to see where you guys use math to get a little creative. Whether these situations have shown profit or not, thus far, or you haven't really noticed or experimented enough to know would be helpful to know.

    Some more detailed questions to begin to guide this thread?
    1.) What low-medium pairs are you limping, folding, or raising with in what positions. Why?

    2.) When are connectors valuable to you? What positions? When are you raising on your draws with these hands and if you don't raise, why or why not?

    3.) How do your opponents affect your implied odds?

    4.) Beavis had an interesting 22 hand when he used folding equity to justify raising a 4-4-Q flop? With these pairs, draws with overcards, how often do you tend to be betting using folding equity in the "equation?"

    There are many other similar ideas here and I hope that I'm clear enough. We all know that maximizing and minimizing are keys and both are heavily effected when we get a little creative and predict the future a bit.
    Quote Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
    GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
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    WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
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  2. #2
    (Formerly Steve-O) Steve Ruddock's Avatar
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    I'll talk about limit

    I place pairs into 4 categories

    1) 22-66 I'll play these in late position with at least 3 limpers for a single bet or attempt a blind steal only, of course if I'm in some weird game where 6 or 7 people see every flop for 1 bet I'll play them almost anywhere.

    2) 77-TT I look at these hands basically the same way, except I play them in Middle and late position in a normal game and I open raise with them if the table is on the tight side, if it's a loose game and i can entice 2 or 3 people in I'll just limp.

    3) JJ & QQ same as before except I always raise limpers with them and I'll reraise normal players. but depending on the action in front of me my play will change especially with JJ.

    4) AA & KK no explanation needed

    Connecters below 89s I'm not real fond of, the flush draws are low and you will hardly ever win with a single pair.

    89s-JQs I like 4 or 5 opponents. however if I can open raise from late position I'll do it if the blind is not a chaser, and just bluff on the flop too.

    I'll obviously semi bluff with position not only to try to win the pot but for the free card as well. if the pot is 2 or 3 way I'll attempt check-raises with a decent draw when i'm out of position. typically if the turn is a dud I can bluff at the pot on the turn. When I make my draw it is also nicely disguised.


    Here's a spot I'll chase; 4-5 players I'm the button with

    flop

    if there is 8-10 bets in the pot I'll take one off here, a 6, T, or diamond would keep me interested and you'll get paid off with so many opponents.
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  3. #3
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    Default

    I use implied odds a lot in the loose NL tournaments I play, mostly the free rolls, because the riskvreward is huge. but I have done it is SnGs to with min bettors, if I have two backdoor draws and a high card I will take a card off.

    In limit, I may use implied odds for a weak PF call, but don't fish much post flop.

  4. #4
    Poker Hustler puddlejumper's Avatar
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    Beavis....so that's why you pushed with pocket threes.
    Bean181818: some guy came up just grabbed my hand and starting massaging it, since it wasn't you, i told him to fuck off
    xcrunman02: yeah only I can do that, i don't need some gook trying to get with my life partner
    Bean181818: i've been faithful
    xcrunman02: me too
    Bean181818: peck tried to get all this but i told him this was all taken, all of it!

  5. #5
    PokerForums God the alex's Avatar
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    DISCLAIMER: I am not saying that preflop decisions are not very, very important.

    What I was looking for was a little more of your flop decisions in combination with those flop decisions.

    PF decisions can be justified by implied odds many times and are fairly elementary and call be well argued on either side many times because you've only seen 29% of the hand. What your game plan with certain marginal hands that aren't "video pokeresque I have this hand," but what are you thinking with certain marginal hands? What are you thinking with draws in late position on LAG/LP/TP tables? Or even early on these tables? When are overcards not to be calculated to you?

    No matter what's in the hole, I don't have 2 cards on the flop, I have 5- 3 of which are shared and my hand is only as strong as the weakness of my opponents' hole cards in combination with the flop. Preflop decisions are usually not important because of the cards as much as the decisions that follow i.e. Beav's 22 hand. (I don't mean to pick on you, Beav, but that's just a good recent community example.)
    Last edited by the alex; 02-15-2005 at 11:13 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
    GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
    GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by puddlejumper
    Beavis....so that's why you pushed with pocket threes.
    It was fours damnit, and we were three-handed and I was the short stack - had the best hand too didn't I?

    I really hate pushing with small pairs, seems like I lose every time with the board double pairing on me.

    For those that don't know, got down three handed in a SnG, the chip-leader didn't like me very much (I didn't say anything to him I swear) I had a decent stack, but had not been gettting ANYTHING for cards and was the lowest of the three, we got into a raising war, he had AK and I had 44, flop was JT6J6. Why you have to do me like that???

    The reason he was mad at me: I raised PF, he made his typical fish call, flop was KQT I had QJ, also had a backdoor flush draw. I called him bet, I hit a nine for the straight, but just called him down because 3 spades were on the board. He had two-pair and thought calling with a pair and an OESD was just terrible.

    Back to the topic at hand.....

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by the alex
    One thing about this forum that I love is we don't abuse math to justify fishing. But where are spefic situations in limit or NL where implied odds are changing your decision on whether to call, raise, or fold. We've discussed this is Steve's limit threads and the situations have become scattered.

    Mainly, looking to see where you guys use math to get a little creative. Whether these situations have shown profit or not, thus far, or you haven't really noticed or experimented enough to know would be helpful to know.

    Some more detailed questions to begin to guide this thread?
    1.) What low-medium pairs are you limping, folding, or raising with in what positions. Why?
    I will limp with 55+ in most spots, but fold 22-44 EP. Too many pots end up short anded and raised, and even an Ax with a crappy kicker can miss the A and still outdraw me.

    Quote Originally Posted by the alex
    2.) When are connectors valuable to you? What positions? When are you raising on your draws with these hands and if you don't raise, why or why not?
    In limit, there have to be a LOT of people in the pot, I usually only play them from the blinds and button. I am not a fan of SC below KQ. In no-limit I like them if the players are weak, since I know I will get paid off nicely if I hit.

    Quote Originally Posted by the alex
    3.) How do your opponents affect your implied odds?
    Depends on how weak they are, and how passive, if there are a lot of limpers and min raisers, I know I can draw cheaply, and get paid when I hit, if they are tighter and more aggressive, I know it will be unprofitable to chase.


    Quote Originally Posted by the alex
    4.) Beavis had an interesting 22 hand when he used folding equity to justify raising a 4-4-Q flop? With these pairs, draws with overcards, how often do you tend to be betting using folding equity in the "equation?"
    I probably talked this one to death, but I will explain it one more time.

    The EP player checked, the original bettor bet. A few things I learned from HoH and SSH, most flops miss, and most pre-flop raiser bet the flop if it is checked to them.

    There were 9 bets in the pot. If I raised, I thought that the button and EP may fold a weak pair. If either of them called, it would be obvious that they had some kind of hand since there was no draw on the board. If the bettor only called, good chance he did not have a Q in hand (but he could still have a lower pair). I had position on him, so if he checked to me on the turn and I bet, I could probably see the river for free. I figured I could invest a few bets for a chance to win a decent pot.

  8. #8
    (Formerly Steve-O) Steve Ruddock's Avatar
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    post flop implied odds nave a lot to do with your opponents.

    if you think when you make your flush you will be able to check raise someone than your implied odds improve, however if your opponent will check down a scare card than they are diminshed.

    What are you thinking with draws in late position on LAG/LP/TP tables? Or even early on these tables? When are overcards not to be calculated to you?
    with a draw on a LAG table I'm checking and calling, it's tough to get a free card, you may be reraised, its to unpredictable.

    an LP table I'm playing them agressively from LP to get a free card, these opponents are easy to manipulate, and when they do have a power house they typically call and go for the check raise on the turn. HAHA i checked it down on the turn, freec card, free card!!!!!

    TP table I'm aggressive as well not only for the free card but now add in semi bluffing. on a LP table a raise on the button is not a semi bluff you have no chance of taking the pot down, don't confuse a semi-bluff with a free card. on a TP table you may be able to take it down. I'd also check raise a draw from EP on a TP table as a semi bluff.

    a time I'd chase is if I have 55 with the 5 of clubs and the flop is 7TQ with 2 clubs with say 5 opponents, if my 5 comes it's not helping anyones hand, and with 5 opponents I should be getting somewhere from 11-16 to 1 on my money, with good implied odds. if my pair was 88 or 99 I would fold since it completes too many hands. or if instead i didn't have the 5 of clubs since i wouldn't count this as a pure out now.
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  9. #9
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Within the past week or so I poasted a hand where I beat AAA with an OESD when He didnt raise me enough to get me out of the pot. At the time of the raise, the true odds were not there, but I knew If I hit, I was going to get teh rest of my stack in, and get paid for it, so In counting those odds, I felt it was justified. If anybody wants to crunh those numbers exactly, be my guest, but I was not using 4% on the flop, but the true 2% per out that I was getting.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

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  10. #10
    PokerForums God the alex's Avatar
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    Default A situation defined by the situation? Or is it more simple?

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve-O
    an LP table I'm playing them agressively from LP to get a free card, these opponents are easy to manipulate, and when they do have a power house they typically call and go for the check raise on the turn. HAHA i checked it down on the turn, freec card, free card!!!!!
    And then you hit your obvious draw and they bet into you, you raise, and they what?... THEY RE-RAISE!!! HAHAHA!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Steve-O
    with a draw on a LAG table I'm checking and calling, it's tough to get a free card, you may be reraised, its to unpredictable.
    OK. So you're in a limit game that is fairly loose, but very aggressive. A lot of pots are bring raised and 3-4 people are seeing flops. You elect to call a raise from a maniac in EP with and get called by the button (weak-tight) and the BB (loose, but tricky. switches up his aggression a lot. likes to see a lot of flops, analytical)

    Flop: (9sb's)

    BB checks- EP raiser bets- You _______?

    What if this is an online .5/1 NL game?

    - PF: EP maniacs raises to $3- You call with the same hand and get called by the button and BB.
    - Flop: same. ($12.50) BB checks- EP raiser bets $10- You ________?

    You have 18 outs to hit a hand:
    9 Clubs
    3 Tens
    3 Aces
    3 Queens

    I think that this raises some questions.
    1.) How many of these outs are alive?
    2.) What are your odds to win?
    3.) What are your impled odds?
    4.) How much scrutiny are you placing on the river card at this point?
    Last edited by the alex; 02-16-2005 at 01:30 PM. Reason: New title for those that browse in thread mode
    Quote Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
    GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
    GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus

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