Pot Odds and NL Play

**mxp2004** · 02-08-2005

I was wondering if any of you apply the concept of pot odds a little differently in NL games to take into account that you may not get to see all the cards. Here's an example of what I mean:

Let's say that you are in the SB with Ax suited, with 50/100 blinds. One person limps, you complete the bet, and the BB checks for a pot of 300.

The flop comes down with two of your suits, giving you the nut flush draw. You check, the BB bets 150, and the limper folds back to you.

At this point, you have a 1/3 chance of making your flush with two cards to come. Looking at the pot odds this way, you would make the call because the pot is laying you the correct odds (i.e., you're paying 150 for the right to win 450).

In NL, however, many players who conclude that they are ahead get much more aggressive on the turn. In this example, if your opponent bet the size of the pot on the turn (now 600) when a blank fell, you'd be overpaying to see the last card. After the turn, you only have a 1/5 chance to make your flush, but you'd be paying 1/2 pot to try to get there. Thus, you wouldn't call here, and in some sense, you wasted your flop bet because you didn't get to see the two cards that you were paying to see.

Recognizing that this is way that NL betting often goes, do you think it would make more sense to view each decision in NL play as if you are only going to get to see one more card? In other words, if you have a flush draw after the flop, should you make your calling decision as if your odds are 1/5 (the odds for making a flush on the next card) or 1/3 (the odds for making it with two more cards)? Finally, would your approach to this issue differ depending on whether you are playing in a ring game or in a tournament?

**Girevik** · 02-08-2005

I had this same questiona and talked to a couple of folks about it offline (I feel better now that someone else had the same question). The general consensus I got was that on the flop you only factor in getting one card into your pot odds (basically if you don't you're assuming you'll get to see the river for free).

Don't forget about implied odds, as well though. You may not have correct pot odds to make the call on the flop with a flush draw, but if you factor in the chips you can reasonably expect to have ADDED to the pot on the turn and river, then your call may be justified.

**Steve Ruddock** · 02-08-2005

To get your pot odds for 2 cards you have to make a reasonable assumption on what your opponent is likely to bet on the turn and also how big yours and the other stacks involved in the hand are as well as if he will call a big bet if the flush shows up (it will be pretty obvious what you have since you were calling reasonably big bets).

This is a very good reason why you would want a hand like AXs in LP (tough hand to play from the SB) with position you could throw out a 150 raise on the flop and probably see the last 2 cards for free.

**xxdemexx** · 02-08-2005

This is only ring... isn't Ax with two cards to make the flush usually all-in in a tournament?

In ring an ace high flush can have a very high payoff on the river - so its not just about pot odds but also about what ppl have in their stacks and what kind of player they are. In some situations ppl will bet out pretending to have high pair with Ax on the make - if you take into account the outs with the ace and the "defeat premium" on the river if you hit then this can be a good EV play.. not least because if someone is also going for the flush and it hits you've kidded them into thinking you have high pair or two pair. If you bet early and strong enough you can suppress over agressive betting in later players to give you good odds. If you don't bet and someone on the draw in late decides to semi-bluff with volume you have a difficult decision to make.

Ideally you want the flush to be made and someone else to have a flush- this is maximum payoff. Flushes pay most on the river.

In tighter games you're chasing blinds alot of the time anyway so a sturdy bet will prbably give you them.

You can get caught up with flushes and the extent of the EV and "defeat premium". By and large my instinct is to bet to see what's out there to test honesty and get information. In NL an ace high flush can "stack" someone. If the pot is too small at the river you are less likely to make it interesting enough for someone to take the risk.

A bet is not only made to win money on a hand..its used to get information, establish yourself in the hand, cut out ppl drawing on PP, diffuse bluff attempts etc etc..

Bob

**geerussell** · 02-08-2005

In party poker $25 NL ring games a lot of people will put their stack on the line to make the flush. Had this happen to me just last night:

***** Hand History for Game 1556532161 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Monday, February 07, 19:34:01 EDT 2005
Table Table 14085 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 8: geerussell ( $54.95 )
Seat 5: lamchop05 ( $33.3 )
Seat 10: SpongerSB ( $60.1 )
Seat 1: Brownsfan78 ( $37.3 )
Seat 3: SlugNchuG ( $18.9 )
Seat 6: tandj222 ( $24.5 )
geerussell posts small blind [$0.25].
SpongerSB posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to geerussell [ Ac As ]
Brownsfan78 calls [$0.5].
SlugNchuG calls [$0.5].
lamchop05 calls [$0.5].
tandj222 folds.
geerussell raises [$2.75].
SpongerSB folds.
Brownsfan78 calls [$2.5].
SlugNchuG calls [$2.5].
lamchop05 calls [$2.5].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Tc, 3c, 4d ]
geerussell is all-In.
Brownsfan78 folds.
SlugNchuG folds.
lamchop05 is all-In.
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6h ]
** Dealing River ** [ Qh ]
geerussell shows [ Ac, As ] a pair of aces.
lamchop05 doesn't show [ Jc, Kc ] high card king.
geerussell wins $21.65 from side pot #1 with a pair of aces.
geerussell wins $71.1 from the main pot with a pair of aces.

**Beavis68** · 02-08-2005

Two overcards and a flush draw can be an OOP push in NL, but I wouldn't call with something as weak as KJs, If I had AKs I may call depending on what I thought the opponenet had and the pot odds.

I also wouldn't call a PFR with KJs.

**Marm** · 02-08-2005

You need to consider each street on an individual basis. You are really only about 20% to make a flush on the Turn, and only about 20% on the River. Over both those streets you are about 33% to make the flush, but you are not paying to see both streets, unless you go all in. Outsx2%+2% works for boththe turn and river. Only use 4% if you pay to see both streets.

You must consider your implied odds in these situations. If you think he will make you pay dearly on the turn to see the river, then you cannot just take the 3-1 odds you are getting now, you must also add-in how much you are goign to have to pay on the turn, if you use the 2-1 odds of getting the flush over 2 cards. In the example you described, if you think he will make you pay to see the river, and may not pay you off if you hit your flush, then you may want to consier folding the nut flush draw in a HU pot. If you look at only the turn, then you need 4-1, and are only getting 3-1, you still want to fold. If you think he will pay you off for the flush, then you can call with the implied odds.

This is a simple odds problem, with some implied odds thrown in, not how to play Axs suited OOP, or any other crap like that. If you have the odds, you stay, if not, you fold. Its basic gambling theory, find an edge and exploit it. Its about +EV and -EV moves. The odds dont change because you are 'the better player' and deserve to get paid.

Now, buying a freecard is a different story.....

**mxp2004** · 02-08-2005

Originally Posted by geerussell

In party poker $25 NL ring games a lot of people will put their stack on the line to make the flush.

I agree... and I'm not sure whether I love or hate this phenomenon. I know that it's a negative expectation play for these guys and a positive one for me, but I also know that I've been busted or crippled way more times that I care to remember. When that happens, it's little consolation that my opponent made a bad call. For me, it's one of the hardest emotions in poker to control.

With respect to my original questions, I appreciate the comments, but I don't want to get too hung up on the flush draw example. I just threw that one out because the math was easy for framing for the issue. Having said that, it sounds like the advice is as follows:

First, when betting on the flop, you have to try to anticipate what it might cost you to bet on the turn before deciding whether you have the pot odds to continue with the hand. In this regard, it is sort of the opposite of the concept of implied odds. Rather than trying to determine whether the betting will ultimately give you the odds to call, you're trying to determine whether the betting is likely to take away those odds.

Second, try to bet on the flop in a way that is most likely to result in slowing your opponent down on the turn. The goal is to bet in a way that maximizes your chances of getting to see all the cards.

Do I have that right?

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