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Thread: theory question

  1. #1
    (Formerly Steve-O) Steve Ruddock's Avatar
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    Default theory question

    You are playing in a 2/4 limit hold em game and have AK. the flop is K82 with 2 spades. after the betting there is 2 opponents and a 10 small bet pot.

    opponent A has the nut flush draw, say A7 of spades

    opponent b has 89.

    If the turn is a blank and you bet out who benefits and who loses from opponent b's call? he will be getting 7 to 1 on his call.

    lets take the same situation only this time opponent b is getting 15 to 1 on his call (or proper odds). now who benefits and who loses in this situation?
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  2. #2
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    Default

    Whether he calls correctly or not, you gain more by him folding than you do by him calling do to your increase in PE (or how often you win), the player with the flush draw has the same PE regardless if player B calls or folds, so he gains more by player B staying in because the pot is larger.

    Player B only gains when he calls correctly.

    Actually, I didnt do the exact math on the pot sizes, so it is possible the pot is not big enough in the first situation, but I figure it is.

  3. #3
    (Formerly Steve-O) Steve Ruddock's Avatar
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    Default

    But in situation 1 he is calling incorrectly getting 7 to 1 odds on 4 outs.

    what if he was recieving only 5 to 1?
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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steve-O
    But in situation 1 he is calling incorrectly getting 7 to 1 odds on 4 outs.
    I am not certain what incorrect or correct has to do with it, unless you are trying to disprove the FTOP, which I already discussed at length in a morten's theorem post.

    When the pot is large and you are ahead, you gain more from opponents folding than you do by they calling (unless you have a hand that is very very strong).

    If he is getting 5:1 you probably gain more by the new money coming in. I am not going to do the exact math, because I have done it else where.

    It is all in terms of PE and pot size, when the pot is large, the pot equity gained when an opponent folds and you have an easily drawn out hand is more profitable than the new money coming in.

    Fundamental Flaw

  5. #5
    PokerForums God the alex's Avatar
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    Situation 2.

    63% of the time, you'll win 15 bets, but 6% an Ace will hit and win you more bets from Player A's added action. About 21% of the time, you lose 2 bets including a river call if you choose to call. Depending on your position on Player B, you'll 2-3 bets 10% of the time.

    But over a long term, Player B is making a 16-17:1 call on a 9:1 shot. Over the course of 100 hands, he'll lose -100 and make +160-170 making his call +EV.

    You will win +15 bets 63% of the time (+945) and lose 1 bet 63% (-63). 6% of the time, you can figure yourself to win 1 or 2 extra bets on the river (between +96 and +102 [+99]) and lose 1 (-6). 10% of the time, you will lose 2 or 3 extras on the river for a total of 3-4 bets (between -30 and -40 [-35]). 21% of the time, you lose 2 total bets (-42).


    945-63+99-6-35-42=+898

    Player A will lose 1 bet 94% of the time (-94), 2 bets 6% (-12) and win 16-17 [16.5] bets 21% of the times (+346.5) making his call +240.5

    All of you are making +EV moves in the moment and a significant portion of their equity comes from you calling when they hit. If you were folding to any spade, player A's equity falls about 12.5%.

    Of course for the pot to get that big, player A, B, or someone at the table made large -EV moves.
    Quote Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
    GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
    GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus

  6. #6
    PokerForums God the alex's Avatar
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    Situation 1

    You: [(63*7)-63]+ [(6*8.5)-6]+ [21*(-2)]+ [10*(-3.5)]= 378+45-42-35= +346

    Player A: (21*8)+ (-73) + [6(-1.5)]= 168-73-9= +86

    Player B: (10*9.5)+ (-100)= 95-100= -5

    2% of the time, B could lose an extra bet if the 8 or 9 on the river is a spade to Player A not affecting the equity much, but still a horrible unless B can extract 3+ bets on the river which is still EV=0-10, but I'm guessing 2-3 on the river, putting the total at 9.5 to win.
    Quote Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
    GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
    GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus

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