Ok I apologize for resurrecting and beating the horse tills its glue, but Kids Post in the rebuy thread sparked this idea.

In a freezeout MTT, 10+ tables, top end weighted payout, you pick up the first 2 sets of blinds (SB folds to your BB, You steal the BB) and then you get AA on the button and the entire table has pushed in, and the blinds look very eager to do so, guranteeing them calling, do you call now?

Only arguments about this idea please.

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Even if we assume random hands, its a fold. I didn't run it long enough for the "true" numbers but 35% is fair.
Hand 1: 08.1677 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 2: 08.1106 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 08.1505 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 08.2203 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 08.1783 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 6: 08.2189 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 7: 08.1325 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 8: 08.2898 % [ 00.08 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 9: 34.5315 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { AA }

Let's use the $10 level for simple math? Lets assume no ties as they won't really affect it.
35% of the time you win $45.
65% of the time you split $45 8 ways or 5.625

Over 100 times you win $45 35 times for a total of $1575. You also win $5.625 65 times for a total of $365. 1575+365=$1940. Or a total of $19.4 per SnG. +EV for sure.
BUT
If you fold you have a 11% chance of winning first place and a 89% chance of winning second place.
($45x11)+($27x89)= $495+$2403=$2898 or $28.98 per SnG.

So overall we can assume a call is costing you $9.58 or almost an entire buy-in everytime you make this mistake.

EDIT: Forgot a decimal, lol the call does not cost you $958

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

Oh shit, this is for a MTT, I really worked this out well for a 1 talbe SnG if anyone wants to see it. Ignore the post though, its useless. On a side note, show this to Helmuthpoker since he still believes math is irrelavent.

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

I never said math is irrevelant, i simply said that it should not be overused. Math is important, but not the most important factor in poker.

Can you show me the calculations you used to arrive and that conclusion?

rofl
Beavis you idiot, its obvious that he "instinstively" knows that math is useless

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“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

When:
M is Math
P is Poker
I is Instict
H is Helmuth, and H<0

P=5I-M/H
Math must be a big number to get P to be positive

That was probably the dumbest thing ever. And, I'm just joking Helmuth .

Sheesh


OK, heres my answer to my own question. I call.

I will end up with 5%-10% of the chips in play early, and can dominate from there. Or at least thats the plan. There is no immediate risk of elimination, since we have an extra 2+ BB's in our stack over everyone else. I will not be eliminated, but 'just' severly crippled. And with these crappy players pushing/calling with at best JJ in some cases, my 3 BB's left might be enough to rebound, unlikely, but possible.

With a top weighted payout (top 3 get the bulk of the money), I'm shooting for the top 3 places. I can't do that by folding in severly +EV spot with non-elimination consequences. Yeah, losing is very bad, but the opposite result is worth it.

At least I think.

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Yeah, I remember owning everyone with my common sense skillz on the SNG question.

On an MTT however, you should call. You're the favorite to win (well... the plurality of the time at least...), and when you do, you'll have a huge chip lead.

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"Last night I stayed up late playing poker with tarot cards. I got a full house and four people died."
-Stephen Wright

But what are a few temporary chips????

I agree, call!