Welcome to PokerForums.org

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 12

Thread: Is this a leak?

  1. #1
    Super Moderator WotaWaster's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Luton, England
    Posts
    5,409

    Default Is this a leak?

    This is applicable to NL cash games around the $200 mark. And i think maybe my biggest leak.

    I think I quite often set myself to get to a showdown as cheaply as possible, rather than deciding I am willing to invest $x more in this pot so I will bet it on turn making draws pay, and possibly getting lsightly better or identical hands to fold in the process.

    Such as in following situation:

    I raise to $12 (4bb) PF with AQ and get 2 calls:

    Flop:



    I bet out $30 into $40ish pot and get a call.

    Turn:



    I now think well maybe the guy has a 5, maybe he called with AK (I know this player may have called with AK on flop putting me on a bluff). Therefore I decide to check turn. He checks behind.

    I now will call a bet he makes on river of say $50 incase he is bluffing.

    Would I be better of betting this money out on turn:
    Firstly to make draws pay
    Secondly if he also has AQ he will likely fold

    However if I get raised I must fold accepting I'm beat.

    Therefore I am investing the same amount in the hand either way, but 2nd way I have larger fold equity and remove free draws.

  2. #2
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    1,230

    Default

    Ask yourself 2 questions before you bet:

    1. Can I get a better hand to fold?

    2. Will a worse hand call me here?

    The answer to one of those questions must be yes to consider making a bet. Otherwise you're making a bet that only a better hand can call.

    So in your example above, what is villian's range?

    Let's say villian calls with AT-AQ, KJ+, QJ/QTs, JTs, 55-JJ

    On the flop, we have TPTK. We bet, villian calls. What hands could villian be calling with now?

    Quad 5's (55), TP (AQ/KQ/QJ/QT), Flush Draw (AJs-ATs, KJs, JTs), a pocket pair that sees a paired flop and thinks you're C-betting (66-JJ).

    Of those hands, only the quad 5's are ahead of us right now. So we ask ourselves the questions above. The answers:
    1. No, Quad 5's are not going to fold.
    2. Yes, We're ahead of a lot of hands that would call a bet here.

    So we bet.

    The turn comes K, now let's re-evaluate:
    Hands that beat us: 55, KQ, KJ
    Note AQ ties . . .
    Hands that will likely fold to a bet: PP's 66-JJ
    Hands that may fold to a bet: AQ, QJ, QT
    Hands that will call a bet we beat: AJs-ATs, JTs

    So let's ask ourselves the questions again:

    1. Yes, AQ may fold here and give up their tie equity.
    2. Yes, flush + straight draws will call. TP or 2 pair may raise.

    So how likely are the combinations? There's 6 ways to deal 55, 6 ways to deal KQ (1 K and 2 Q's accounted for), and 1 way to deal KJss. So that's a total of 13 combinations that beat us.

    There's 1 way each to deal AJs, ATs, JTs (3 total), and add to that 8 ways each to deal QJ and QT (16 total) for 19 hands.

    So it's more likely we'll be called by a worse hand than a better hand here. And a better hand is likely to raise. So a bet here is very likely profitable.

    Do I do all this in my head as I play? I don't do the card combos down to the exact number, but I consider how many total "hands" are on each side of the equation. I use my gut and some offline number crunching to make the call on whether or not the balance is in favor of betting or checking.

    Note that on a river like , the only hands we're ahead of and might call our bet are QJ and QT (and even so it's marginal), so checking the river is the best play . . .
    Last edited by Jason75; 07-25-2006 at 03:17 PM.
    Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
    Beavis68: You play poker.
    Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

  3. #3
    Super Moderator WotaWaster's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Luton, England
    Posts
    5,409

    Default

    Great Post Jason. Thanks.

  4. #4
    Stu Ungar OrionPro's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    2,671

    Default

    Indeed, I had to close my mouth manually after reading it.

    Jason, you aren't by any means Harrington hiding under a different name?

  5. #5
    Mike McDermott tightagressive's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    3,439

    Default

    u are using pot control here very well in this hand.

    i like a check behind here, this is no leak.

    if you bet TPTK on every steet 100% of the time, THAT is a leak.

  6. #6
    Poker Professional Eclipse86's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Toronto, Canada
    Posts
    1,656

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by tightagressive
    u are using pot control here very well in this hand.

    i like a check behind here, this is no leak.

    if you bet TPTK on every steet 100% of the time, THAT is a leak.
    i agree..
    this is a situation where you need to check the turn due to pot control.

    if u decide to lead out again on turn and opponent flat calls, you now have to check river.. and when u check river ur opponent can easily use position to take it away from you on the river - plus u wont be able to call river cuz ur turn bet made the pot huge.

    i would have checked turn, and if he checks it down too.. then i lead out on river with a blocking/value bet on river for about 1/3-1/4 ps and fold it to a raise.

  7. #7
    Mike McDermott tightagressive's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    Michigan
    Posts
    3,439

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Eclipse86
    i agree..
    this is a situation where you need to check the turn due to pot control.

    if u decide to lead out again on turn and opponent flat calls, you now have to check river.. and when u check river ur opponent can easily use position to take it away from you on the river - plus u wont be able to call river cuz ur turn bet made the pot huge.

    i would have checked turn, and if he checks it down too.. then i lead out on river with a blocking/value bet on river for about 1/3-1/4 ps and fold it to a raise.
    right. checking the turn in spots like this also can set up very good value bets on the river. if you are raised, you are beat.

  8. #8
    Stu Ungar OrionPro's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    2,671

    Default

    How much do you guys actually bet on TPTK when you don't have to price out any straight or flush draws?

    In the micros, this hand would be easy to play, since you get attacked with suited cards 99% of the time.

    But how much do you bet against a 'normal' opponent and why?

  9. #9
    Mike McDermott
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    West Virginia University
    Posts
    3,185

    Default

    Would you guys bet the turn if it wasn't a K?
    BOSS

  10. #10
    Mike McDermott Bagonirix's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Brunson, Amarillo, Crandall? Do I need to say more.
    Posts
    3,429

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SeanyBullets1
    Would you guys bet the turn if it wasn't a K?
    nor a spade, yes. Would he really play A5, unless he has 55
    idkmybffjill?

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •