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About LinkBacksNear the end of a 600-men tourney, about 30 left, already ITM. Limits had just gone up, so I was approaching the red zone and was looking to double up or (re-) steal. The guy was new at the table. He certainly didn't see me playing earlier. Most people were playing loose, stealing with A8o, KTo and similar junk from any position.
What's your play?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
Button (t35477)
SB (t43755)
Hero (t21822)
UTG (t15657)
UTG+1 (t59444)
MP1 (t16332)
MP2 (t34149)
CO (t50177)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 7
.
3 folds, MP2 raises to t6000, 3 folds, Hero raises to t21722, MP2 calls t15722.
Flop: (t44044) A, K
Turn: (t44044) 8
River: (t44044) 4
Final Pot: t44044
Results in white below:
Hero has 7d 7s (one pair, sevens).
MP2 has Qh Qs (one pair, queens).
Outcome: MP2 wins t44044.
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Results 1 to 10 of 11
Thread: Push or fold
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07-13-2006 #1Stu Ungar
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Push or fold
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07-13-2006 #2River Rat
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I think it depends on your read of the guy, if he's pinched a few of your blinds before then this is a good time to push back against him, if he's a tight player who's rarely if ever pinched the blinds then let these go and wait for a better opportunity.
He has you covered so unless it was a complete steal attempt he's probably going to make the call and most likely your a 50/50 at best, worse case he has you 70/30.
I suppose you could just flat call him and then when you get a flop like that and he bets or raises (depending on your action) you can let the 7s go quite easily.Bad Beat of the week 27/08/2006:
:kh :jd
Flop - :jc :3s :6d I raise 2/3 pot, Villian calls.
Turn :kd - I raise to put villian all in, he calls
he flips over :4d :4s :eek:
River :4c :rant: :mad: :rant: :eek:
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07-13-2006 #3Banned
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Fold.
He's got 15k to win 27k he's not laying much down and at best you are up against two overs even if you had a read versus a maniac.
Pick a better spot you're not in trouble yet where you would need to make this move.
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07-13-2006 #4Stu Ungar
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My mistake might be here to assume that a medium stack would try to steal with a somewhat weak hand.
Then again, his stack size is precisely the reason why I attacked him. He must fear I have KK+, AK, AQ, AJ etc so that he doesn't get the odds to call (assuming he is dominated). Besides he would have a smallish stack if he loses.
IMO if he had two high unpaired cards, and that's more likely than a higher pair, he should let the hand go unless it's AK. Remember the other hand AQs vs AA preflop? You said AQs is definitely foldable, so if you were my opponent would you not lay down AQ at least every other time (thus, making the push +EV)? And even more so, anything weaker than AQ?
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07-13-2006 #5Stu Ungar
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Ok after testing with PokerStove I figured that his odds are still about 2.3-2.5 : 1 if his hand is dominated, making it only barely a wrong call if at all. So he can indeed call with Ace-anything, unless I have AA.
However the question remains how often he'll lay down his hand.Last edited by OrionPro; 07-13-2006 at 05:48 AM.
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07-13-2006 #6Banned
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If I had AQ I would have probably raised it slightly more, but yes I would lay it down to the push quite a lot in the situation you describe. There's a whole lot of context specific stuff that might change the way I played it though.
As for Pokerstove it's helpful, but at this point in MTTs it's more about the $EV than the chipEV. Sometimes they coincide but often the $EV which is harder to quantify will mean you don't make the "correct" chipEV decision. In this instance I would not call on the basis of my 2.5:1 pot odds because my cash return is not guarenteed to rise by the same proportion if I call and win, yet if I call and lose I am guarenteed no more cash. If I fold, I am still alive and may come back to win big (this is a personal assessment of skill V the field and very tricky). Pokerstove and chipEV based decisions are only a 100% in closed case ring games (assuming applied odds are not a factor) and even these hands exist in a broader context.
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07-13-2006 #7PokerForums God
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This is a definte fold unless you know you have folding equity. There way too little chance that you have a dominant hand to 22-66 or a horrible Ace the many times he calls v. the very few times he folds and you have enough chips to fold this and get something a bit better or even deuces in a better spot.
You'll go broke calling of course because this is such a large percentage of your stack and you see that, but pushing means knowing that your best case scenario is 50/50 and that should be a worst case scenario with your stack.
Originally Posted by FaDi
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07-13-2006 #8Mike McDermott
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everyone allready explained why you should fold. but, heres what happens if you dont
-donk raises with ATo
-dafish pushes with 77
-donk will think about it, and press his extended time button. he will type something to you, and say something really arbitrary like "u have ace jack?"
-you wont type back
-donk will call, spike a 10 on the turn. after he wins the pot everyone will say "nh" and the donk will say "yeah, thats what i put you on"
then you will be on life tilt
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07-13-2006 #9Poker Hustler
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This is one of those situations that's dependent upon how you're doing at the table. If you feel like you're getting run over and are a little out of your league, I think you shouldn't even consider folding, you should push this hand.
You'd be happy with a coinflip, as it would double you up 55% of the time and put you in a much better situation.
If you feel confident in your play, then I'd think about the push but would toss it in the muck 99% of the time.
BTW - Note that if you put your opponent on a bigger pair like 88-QQ, a stop and go would be perfect here. But of course, with no read, there's no way you can do this . . . .Last edited by Jason75; 07-13-2006 at 11:03 AM.
Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
Beavis68: You play poker.
Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.
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07-13-2006 #10Stu Ungar
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I see no reason ot push here...
There is probably no fold equity by pushing it right now... he must call with any hand he made that raise.
you are up agaist 2 over or a higher PP in most case so you are a 55/45 dog agaist the range of hands we can put him on right now... if he is pretty loose... if he is somewhere tight, we are probably 2:1 dog.
Wedont have enough chips to justify a call, so our only option is to lay it down...
KJOriginally Posted by Girevik
Heck, I've seen people go nuts with middle pair!
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