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Thread: Hmmmm?

  1. #1
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default Hmmmm?

    Betting with mid pair nut flush draw on the button. Good/bad?

    Hand #3883169-1489 at San Mateo (No Limit Hold'em)
    Powered by UltimateBet
    Started at 06/Jan/05 13:10:24

    skooterman is at seat 0 with $4.55.
    Ptarmigan is at seat 1 with $8.15 (sitting out).
    AliMacG is at seat 2 with $5.71.
    HIDLMA is at seat 3 with $7.51 (sitting out).
    Dimber Damber is at seat 4 with $3.20.
    matcoach is at seat 5 with $7.30.
    Marm is at seat 6 with $9.95.
    DRADICATOR is at seat 7 with $4.15.
    wicked_too is at seat 8 with $10.45.
    arkadii is at seat 9 with $7.05 (sitting out).
    The button is at seat 6.

    DRADICATOR posts the small blind of $.05.
    wicked_too posts the big blind of $.10.

    skooterman: -- --
    AliMacG: -- --
    Dimber Damber: -- --
    matcoach: -- --
    Marm: 4h Ah
    DRADICATOR: -- --
    wicked_too: -- --

    Pre-flop:

    skooterman calls. AliMacG calls. Dimber Damber
    calls. matcoach folds. Marm calls. DRADICATOR
    calls. wicked_too checks.

    Flop (board: Qh 4s 2h):

    DRADICATOR checks. wicked_too checks. skooterman
    checks. AliMacG checks. Dimber Damber checks.
    Marm bets $.60. DRADICATOR folds. wicked_too folds.
    skooterman folds. AliMacG folds. Dimber Damber
    folds. Marm is returned $.60 (uncalled).



    Hand #3883169-1489 Summary:

    No rake is taken for this hand.
    Marm wins $.60.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  2. #2
    change my title babo bonchkid's Avatar
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    Default

    I like it, you're more likely to get some play if the flush card falls. If the table is too loose-passive, no one may bet on fourth even if you hit your flush.
    “There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

  3. #3
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default

    77,175,722 games 1811.860 secs 42,594 games/sec

    Board: Qh 2h 4s
    Dead:

    equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

    Hand 1: 50.0710 % [ 00.50 00.00 ] { Ah4h }
    Hand 2: 09.9867 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { random }
    Hand 3: 09.9796 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { random }
    Hand 4: 09.9875 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { random }
    Hand 5: 09.9919 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { random }
    Hand 6: 09.9833 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { random }
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  4. #4
    change my title babo bonchkid's Avatar
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    Default

    Yea you're error is you are assuming they ahve random hands.
    “There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

  5. #5
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default

    If I get one caller and assume he has a Q, then this is not bad, but not good either.

    1,308,310 games 2.078 secs 629,600 games/sec

    Board: Qh 2h 4s
    Dead:

    equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

    Hand 1: 49.8313 % [ 00.50 00.00 ] { Ah4h }
    Hand 2: 50.1687 % [ 00.50 00.00 ] { QQ, AQs, KQs, QJs-Q2s, AQo, KQo, QJo-Q2o }

    But for each additional caller without a Q, it gets better.

    120,685,950 games 58.937 secs 2,047,711 games/sec

    Board: Qh 2h 4s
    Dead:

    equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

    Hand 1: 48.7206 % [ 00.49 00.00 ] { Ah4h }
    Hand 2: 43.5694 % [ 00.43 00.00 ] { QQ, AQs, KQs, QJs-Q2s, AQo, KQo, QJo-Q2o }
    Hand 3: 07.7100 % [ 00.07 00.00 ] { random }

    All the way up to my original post.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  6. #6
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bonchkid
    Yea you're error is you are assuming they ahve random hands.
    Not really, since they limped, and they could all have anything at all.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  7. #7
    change my title babo bonchkid's Avatar
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    Default

    Now put one on any PP JJ-44
    “There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

  8. #8
    change my title babo bonchkid's Avatar
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    It's not that bad, but then again PokerStove is hard to use accurately.
    Board: Qh 2h 4s
    Dead:

    equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

    Hand 1: 48.4395 % [ 00.48 00.00 ] { Ah4h }
    Hand 2: 12.4650 % [ 00.12 00.00 ] { AA-44, AKs-ATs, KQs-KTs, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-ATo, KQo-KTo, QJo-QTo, JTo }
    Hand 3: 39.0955 % [ 00.39 00.00 ] { QQ, AQs, KQs, QJs-Q2s, AQo, KQo, QJo-Q2o }
    “There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

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