What was he thinking?!?!

**binaryc** · 07-04-2006

I just wanted to start a thread discussing theories on what goes though a fish's head when he calls a pot sized bet with absolutely nothing.

Here's an example:

Flop:

I'm first to act and bet about 3/4 the pot with

and get two callers.
One had

, the other had

.

The Fish ended up winning the pot when

came on the turn (and I didn't get my last diamond on the river), but that doesn't really matter for this discussion.

I can understand the 2nd guy hoping to hit his OESD. But the first? He had no hope for a flush and no hope for a straight on an already paired board. It's not like he was bluffing because he just called.

So what do you think goes through the average fish's head in a situation like this?

**Porg** · 07-05-2006

I have two over cards so I can probably win the pot if one of those come, if not I have the runner runner straight to go after. Maybe the guy betting is full of shit and I can make a bluff later - would'nt that feel good!

**tom.hunter** · 07-05-2006

same thing that was going through yours when you made a 75% bet, as first to act on that dangerous board

You should have made more of a probe bet to find out where you stood a 75% pot bet is usually better for stopping drawers when your in the lead. 50% or less is average probing bet

But yeah some poeple just see it as a gamble and arn't trying to play well

**Gryff** · 07-05-2006

They think 656...nobody has anything... my overcards might be GOOOD!!!!!

**the alex** · 07-05-2006

The guy with J9's thinking that he was getting the right price, if you take away the implied odds. Throw in the implied odds and he's definitely getting the price.

People usually don't bet when they hit a set on the flop. You did. Assuming that he understands pot odds, he figures he has 6 outs, is a 3:1 dog, getting either 2.3:1 or 3.3:1 on the pot if he acted after the guy with the OESD. Even if he acted first. He wouldn't have to extract more out of you to get the value that he needs to make his flop call right.

**binaryc** · 07-07-2006

He may be a 3.1:1 dog to hit by the river, but he's a 6.8:1 dog to hit on the turn. And that's assuming I don't have a set. If you plug in this hand on twodimes, you'll see that he only wins 1 in 10 times. Take out player 3 and it only goes up to 1 in 5 times. Give me 2, 5 instead of a, 5 and it only goes up to 1 in 2.7 times. So basically even in his best case scenario, he doesn't have the pot odds to call (for him to get 2.3:1 he needs the other player to stay in, which lowers his chances of winning the pot quite a bit).

If the math played out the way you explained it, it would pretty much always make sense to call up to a pot sized bet with 2 overcards...

**OrionPro** · 07-07-2006

I'm with binary here, with J9 you cannot seriously stay in such a board. Even if you hit your jack, you won't know if it's any good. The other guy in the pot could be slow-playing trip sixes.

However when playing A5s, you shouldnt get too excited about that board. You want a flush or inside straight and not bottom pair.

**binaryc** · 07-07-2006

yeah, I wasn't really all that happy about the board, but 3/4 of the pot here really means $6 ($8 pot) which isn't a whole heck of a lot for a 1/2 game. If I had bet any less, they'd call just because it's cheap. I didn't feel like checking was right because I would get no information. I figured by betting that amount, anyone who called either had a 5 or was chasing some kind of straight, and anyone who raised probably had a 6. I was not expecting someone to call with J9o though.

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