We've made the money 17, or 18 players left. I'm 9th or so in chips, table PF raises have been a mixed bag, it's a 4.40 SNG so there's a few donks that have stacks just from some lucky catches. CO happens to be one, and PF raises have been a mixed bag of decent hands, others are QJo, Ax PP's etc. Once I hit the $ I'm only concerned about having a stack for the final table. 9th-18th is the same $. Most people tended to fold to pressure on the flop so far as well.

*Edit*, Blinds 400/800 Antes 50

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) CP hand converter

UTG+1 (t4680)
MP1 (t3945)
MP2 (t7038)
MP3 (t45611)
CO (t12436)
Button (t10845)
Hero (t8896)
BB (t2504)
UTG (t28414)

Preflop: Hero is SB with , .
UTG raises to t1600, 4 folds, CO calls t1600, 1 fold, Hero calls t1200, 1 fold.

Flop: (t4800) , , (3 players)
Hero ????

Didn't want to push PF because my thoughts were between the raiser and the CO I figure I'm up against at least overs from one if not both of them.

I would say my table image was pretty solid, any hands I showed down were good hands and the winner, only real losing hand I had was a race where I had QQ against AK, I raised he pushed had him covered and called.

CO was a donkey, was close to busting out a few times but managed to catch some breaks to stay alive. UTG, seemed like he played pretty decent hands and was capable of folding to pressure. I was mainly concerned about his hand as opposed to the CO.

Seemed like most hands post flop people were betting whether they had something or not. I'm 80% confident this is getting bet no matter what, just not sure from who yet.

UTG guy is obviously what makes this tricky. But, if you were calling the initial bet purely for set value, then it was a bad call. So let's assume that's not what you were doing. In that case, you got just about your best possible flop, so I close my eyes and put it in.

Just for fun, I predict that UTG folds and CO calls with

Good points by Rex and jt. Your position really screws you - you have gained no information since you last put money in the pot. Also, short of a set, this is as good a flop as you could hope for.

A) Here's the thing, you have 6 outs whether you are against a set, 2 pair, or an overpair. 8 gives you a str8, T gives you top set. Both should be good against even 2 opponents. I would discount a made str8 by villain, as you have 2 Tens making T8 unlikely and 85 is a big stretch.
25% to win showdown vs. 1 or 2 opponents.

B) Now, if you are ahead right now, 2 overcards has 6 outs. 88 and A8 have a few more outs, but are still underdogs. Even if you are against 4 total overcards, you are 52% to win. 68% vs 3 overcards.
75% to win showdown vs. 1
65% to win showdown vs. 2

Assume both UTG and CO are 50/50 between the above 2 scenarios.
Assume 100% call from overpair, set or 2 pair
Assume 20% call from scenario B.

If you push flop there are 2 variables:
1) Do villains have scenario A or B
2) Are you against 1 or 2 opponents or do you win the pot right here

Examine (AB means UTG is scenario A, CO is scenario B)
I. 25% of the time AA : 100% vs. 2 opponents : win 25% : tEV = 1670
II. 25% of the time BB : 64% win pot now
32% vs. 1 opponent : win 75%
4% vs. 2 opponents : win 65% :
tEV = 5000
III. 50% of the time AB : 80% vs. 1 opponent : win 25%
20% vs. 2 opponents : win 25%
tEV = 2600

TOTAL tEV of pushing flop = 9300

Push baby! 9300 > the 7300 you got left and if you win the final table is yours to lose.

I hope this makes sense. I might edit for clarity later.

Originally Posted by Pok 7's

CO (t12436)
Hero (t8896)
UTG (t28414)

Doesn't look like you have enough chips to dance through the next two streets against the table CL or the CO who also has you well covered. Any time I'm faced with this kind of stack against the CL I know I won't be able to play poker against him after the flop so it's all-in or fold! In this case if I knew I was going all-in. I'd try to take a few extra chips with me and go for a ck-r all-in. UNLESS UTG or CO went all-in before it got back to me! Then I'd have to figure a better pp than my tens and fold.
Edit: you not only have the overpair but extra outs with the gutshot str8 - good time to gamble!

Ok . . . so the read is that we can discount CO's hand, but what about UTG (the most important opponent here!!!)???

I'm going to take UTG as an average player skillwise, tight with medium aggression.

So UTG min raises, CO calls. I'm putting UTG on AK, AA-JJ unless you can tell me you have a read that a min raise UTG doesn't mean big hand. I'm putting CO on 2 overs, AQ/AJ/AT/KQ/KJ, A9s-A6s or small to mid pair (22-99).

OOP, M of 8, I think you want to fold this hand and beat up the blinds in the next couple of hands (it's your button next).

If we do call and get that flop: Since you said it's likely someone is going to bet this even with nothing, you should be the one to bet it with the overpair and inside straight draw. If you know someone is going to bet with nothing if you check and have a medium strength hand, you should always make a bet if you think you can get them to fold their nothing (the alternative is check/call or check/raise, both of which commit you to the pot). I think a bet of 2000 or so may win this pot. If you get one or more calls, you could be screwed. If you get a raise, you're likely beat.

But all in all, fold preflop.