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  1. #1
    Stu Ungar OrionPro's Avatar
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    Default HoH III, Problem #10, Preflop action

    This is a fairly simple one, since I'm only wondering about the PF action.

    I'm Phil Ivey and I have 44. I limp in. There's a few limpers and the BB raises. Everybody folds, and I'm getting about 2-to-1 odds to call.

    Now Harrington says that calling the raise with 44 is correct, and I can understand that given Phil is so strong postflop and in position.

    But why is folding to the raise incorrect? I invested little, so why not just let the hand go?

  2. #2
    River Rat Meldon's Avatar
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    Default

    I think we need a bit more information here. What are the stack sizes, blinds etc. Also how big was the raise and what type of player made it?
    Last edited by Meldon; 06-27-2006 at 07:13 AM.

  3. #3
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
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    Default

    Ok, a couple things:

    1. This is problem 11, not problem 10.

    2. If you're going to put these up here, you could quickly put in the stack sizes and PF action. Like this:

    Major Tournament
    Blinds: 200/400 Ante: 50
    UTG 26,000
    UTG+1 15,000
    MP 15,000
    MP+1 28,000
    Hero (Phil Ivey) 75,000
    Button 25,000
    SB 25,000
    BB (Tony G) 50,000

    Dealt to Hero:

    UTG folds, UTG+1 calls 400, 2 folds, Hero calls 400, button calls 400, SB calls 200, BB raises 2,300 to t2700, UTG+1 folds, Hero______?
    Last edited by Jason75; 06-27-2006 at 07:59 AM.
    Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
    Beavis68: You play poker.
    Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

  4. #4
    PokerForums God
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    Default

    fish, you really need to go back and read the first two books.

  5. #5
    Stu Ungar OrionPro's Avatar
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    Default

    could you elaborate beav? I expect a higher pair here, making me a big underdog.

  6. #6
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
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    Calling is a hugely +EV play here. Here's why:

    With a hand like a small pair, you're really looking to flop a set against multiple opponents, or one opponent with a big hand like TPTK, high-PP, etc.

    It's the implied odds that makes this play so worthwhile. Let's take a look:

    Tony G, who reraises here, has just over 47,000 left when he makes this raise.

    We have Tony G covered, so our implied odds are the smaller stack (ours our his, in this case his) divided by the amount we have to call (in this case 2,300):

    47,000/2,300 = ~20:1

    So our total odds = direct odds + implied odds
    TO = 2:1 + 20:1 = 22:1

    Since we'll hit our set 1:7.5, those are incredible odds!!! In fact, I usually will call a raise with any pair (if I can cap the action or feel confident I'm not going to see a reraise) if I'm getting as little as 10:1. 10:1 is the minimum in order to account for the times I hit and my opponent still wins (very small % of the time, but we should account for it) and the very rare times I see a reraise and have to throw the hand away.

    If you're just learning how to play for set value, I'd start off trying to get at least 12:1.
    Last edited by Jason75; 06-27-2006 at 08:12 AM.
    Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
    Beavis68: You play poker.
    Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

  7. #7
    PokerForums God
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaFish
    could you elaborate beav? I expect a higher pair here, making me a big underdog.
    this is why you shouild reread the first two books.

  8. #8
    Stu Ungar OrionPro's Avatar
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    Thanks Jason that explains it. It actually occurred to me when reading your first post and looking at the stack sizes (although I didn't do the math as precisely).

    Does that mean I'd play the same OOP (e.g. from the BB with 44)

  9. #9
    Stu Ungar KINGJACK's Avatar
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    I remember this hand...

    Toby G Checed raised the flop when he hit his top pair with AK...

    Phill knew that tony would put a lot of money in if he hit the flop with top pair or over pair.

    Wich he did...

    that makes the play profitable with 44 if you hit your set...

    If I remember all the money went in on turn after Ivey only flat called the raise on the flop.

    Implied odds dictated that call... not the 2:1 he had on his $$$ preflop...

    KJ
    Originally Posted by Girevik
    Heck, I've seen people go nuts with middle pair!

  10. #10
    Poker Hustler The Real DeCoy's Avatar
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    The other thing to remember is that this is Phil Ivey. If he calls and has to fold away $3k chips its nothing of his stack size and even less of his skill set.

    The implied odds are valid, but it is also M size that gives flexibility to this play. If he had 10-25M Phil would be less likely to make this call.

    7-1 still means that this is a loser 7 0f 8 times. You don't want to be heads up with those odds an a middle size M. Thats just chip donking. A preflop AI is called for at that point.
    Trons: "...be a winning person first."
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