Actually Stevey is correct, Sklansky would agree with him here(more or less)

__________________
“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

I had already discounted to 8 outs I had just estimated 33% when it is really 31.4% to complete.

So, I am not sure just what you think Sklansky would agree with.

I basically agree with Stevey, I just don't think you can arrive at the 22% he made from his calcuations on twodimes. Too many variables go into that calculation.

If you wanted to drop it to 7 outs and be really safe that would put you at 28% so you would want at least 3 callers, and there is still plenty of action here for that.

You guys spend too much time picking nits.

What I am saying is the # of outs you have does not equal your pot equity. As an example, in both of these cases, you have 9 outs, but your pot equity is different.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=690772
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=690774

So what if the bettor has trips? Considering that the difference in pot equity in those two cases is about 9%, I'd say it's a pretty important "what if"

well, you don't have 9 outs in the first one, you have 8 outs on the turn, and then it drops to 7 on the river if a club doesn't fall or the board doesn't pair.

And yeah, when the board is paired you do have to worry about making your flush and still losing.

You need to use your outs as rough guide to make decisions, sometime you will better or worse, you may think you have 9 outs but an opponent, may have two pair or a set stealing stealing some of your outs or be on a better draw, or he may be on a worse draw and any pair will win for you.

Do you think he could raise here on the flop or not, that was the question.

I did some EV calcs on this. I'll post them if anyone wants to see them, but here's the results.

If the bettor has trips 50% of the time and doesn't have trips the other 50%, then the EV of calling is +.286 SB and the EV of raising is +.03 SB.

But trips don't happen very often. You should definitely be wary of it when someone bets on this type of board, but you shouldnt assume that 50% of the time the bettor has trips! That would be a gross overestimation. (Unless he is very passive). So..

If the bettor has tirps 20% of the time and doesn't have it 80% of the time, then the EV of calling is basically the same as the EV of raising, around +.41 or +.42 SB.

The reason raising doesn't help you very much is because you reopen the betting for the first bettor if he has trips. By letting him 3-bet on the flop, the callers in between could decide to fold, which is very very bad. Normally I would assume that micro-limit callers are still willing to call two more cold after already putting one bet in, but on a paired board, I think they're more likely to fold instead of call two cold. Maybe I'm overestimating their ability though.

Those are all very valid points. My only point was that your actual EV is always going to be different than what you calculate for outs unless you see everyones hand and have twodimes nearby. The best you can do at the table is estimate your outs and go from there, and I do like to discount outs. It is similar to drawing to a straight on a 2-flush board.

But, if the original bettor 3-bets, that is a good indication that he has at least trips if now a boat already, and may save you some BBs later on.

Also, forcing somone to fold a middle pocket pair wouldn't be horrible.

But in this case, there were only 3 in the pot already, so betting is definitely not a no-brainer, but is worth considering.

How do you calculate EV. This is a relativly new term to me.

EV is expected value, it can also be put in terms of Pot Equity. Pot Equity is what I prefer, Ed Miller introduces this in Small Stakes Holdem.

For example, if you are drawing to a flush, you have 9 outs, and you will hit your flush by the river 35% of the time, so you Pot Equity is 35% on the flop.

That means that 35c of every dollar that goes into the pot is yours.

Raising 2 opponents is marginally profitable, but raising 4 is very profitable if the all call. If you can raise 1 dollar and get 4 callers, you will be profiting 75c. You just have to remember that if you don't make your hand on the turn, your equity drops and you can no longer raise profitably (unless it is a family pot).

It is harder to calcuate on made hands, like AA or TPTK.

EV does not equal pot equity.

__________________
“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

Wow, that is helpful.

I don't know where anyone said they are exactly equal, care to explain the difference?