Read the following 2 hands:


Hand #1:

Standard NL50 game, no reads on anyone.
Hero has roughly $26

Hero is dealt KcQc in MP and limps.
There are 4 other limpers including HERO (1 from EP, the other 2 from MP-LP).
No one raises PF.
Sb completes, BB checks.

So its 6 to the flop.

*** FLOP *** Ks 5h 2h (PS = $3)

SB checks, BB checks.
EP Limper bets $3.
Now its your turn. What do you do?





Hand #2:

Standard NL50 game, no reads on anyone.
Hero has roughly $26

Hero is dealt 99 in MP and limps.
There are 3 other limpers including HERO (the other 2 from MP-LP).
No one raises PF.
Sb completes, BB checks.

So its 5 to the flop.

*** FLOP *** 2h 5c 7c (PS = $2.5)

SB bets $3
BB folds.
Now its your turn. What do you do?







Now.. Most of your would probably say RAISE. Most likely to $9 on the flop. Obviously you can't call, because if u flat call ur just inviting all the draws to come along. If you decide to play both these hands on the flop, the only option you have is to raise to about $9.

Now lately, i've been thinking. Why raise? Why not just fold?

Obviously you can't call here. BUT you only do have 50cents in the pot, so why raise? By raising ur essentially backing up ur 50cents in the pot with a $9raise on the flop. And your raise is only going to get called or raised on the flop if villian has u beat (majority of the time). This just doesnt sound right does it? it sounds very very unproportional, $9 raise for ur 50cents? When ur raise is only going to get called if ur beat. Well most of the time at least.

Also if you raise, with the $26 dollar stack. And villian calls your raise. Your now kinda pot commited. As you will have $17 left, and the ps on the turn will be $21.

So why raise, why not just fold and see the next hand.


Now lets put some numbers into this equation.

Lets use Hand #2 as the example:

Lets say u decide to raise to $9 on the flop.

Lets say that 75% of the time your raise is called (or re-raised), villian will have you dominated with 2pair, a set of 22 55 77, or TT. (the %75 is a rough estimate).

Now lets say that 25% of the time your raise is called on the flop. Villian will have 99,88, A7 or even K7 Q7. In which case villian will no longer put anymore money into the pot on the turn or river unless he improves his hand.

And because of the fact that your raise was called, chances are your not going to be putting in anymore money into the pot unless ur hand improves.

Most of the time, the hand will be checked down the whole way. And if u do decide to bet the turn, the only bet u can do is all in. As you only have $17 left and the ps is $21.


Now lets say u encounter this type of situation 100 times, and u fold every single time. This means you will lose $50 (100 x 0.50).

Now lets say u encounter this type of situation 100 times, and u raise every single time. To simplify, lets say 75 times you are dominated and will pretty much lose your $9 raise on the flop. So thats a grand total of -$675. And in your 50cents that u put in preflop. For a total of 675+50 = $725. So $725 lost. This is assuming you don't lose anymore money on the turn or river when ur hand is dominated.

The other 25 times, you will win whatevers in the pot on the turn (assuming you and villian check it down on turn and river and no other bets are made). That would be a total of 25 x 21 = 525. So a total gain of $525.

So 525-725 = -$200. Thats a loss of $200 over 100 hands!!!. So raising everytime u encounter this situation would make u lose 4BBs on average, while folding would only lose you 1BB.



OF course this is all theoretical, and only really applies if u have no read on villian.


But....... thoughts anyone?

First hand I really don't see the point of throwing this away, why play KQ in the first place if you are then going to fold to a bet just because there is a flush draw or the chance that someone made 2 pair or trips.

Same goes for the second hand, you have an overpair and nobody bet pre-flop so why suspect them for TT+? or some sort of weird 2 pair (why would they have 25, 27 or 57, makes no sense). I think A7 or even K7 makes this sort of raise here, obviously occasionally you will get tucked up by 22, 55 or 77 but not that often.


I don't think that your raise will be called 75% of the time with villian having you dominated and I don't think the other 25% of the time you get called.

I would say 30% of the time you get called/raised and your dominated, 40% of the time you get called and your infront and the other 30% he folds.