WSOP Hands 5, 6, & 6

**Jason75** · 06-19-2006

Ok, when we last left hero, he had his soul sucked out on the river. He's gone from CL to near zero in the flash of a river card.

Here's a brief recap of the table you'll need for the next 3 hands:

Blinds: 25/50

Seat 1: Jason (Button) 375
Seat 2: Average Player (SB) 6000+
Seat 3: Squeaky Tight (BB) ~1500
Seat 4: Mr. Limp-a-lot but don't call raises (UTG) ~1100
Seat 5: Fairly Tough, Tight Player ~1800 (UTG +1)

Hand 1: Table folds around to Jason.
Jason has

Player 2 is still stacking away . . . this time it's my chips. What do we do?

**Just_dude** · 06-19-2006

After the beat you just took... If it were me I'm probably folding and looking to sit back for a minute but that's me... You could be in worse off shape. Your a great player, your M is still 5ish with 3 hands till your back in the blinds.. I'm going to sit back and fold hoping like hell to see some good cards.

The last 3 times I had Q7 in live tournaments I was in exactly your shape, I mean EXACTLY. It was 3 out of the next 5 hands after I had a monster cracked and I was facing an AI decision every time. 2 of the 3 hands I hit top two on the flop, the third I would have made a straight and would have been dominating the table because I would have won all 3 hands. Instead I made an unceremonius exit 5 of the bubble because I folded all 3. I ended up picking up KK in the BB and pushed, and got called by Q4h and he caught his flush on the river after I flopped a set of K's.. Sometimes your just fucked!

Decisions like these are what seperate the dead money (ME) and the winning players (YOU)...

**SeanyBullets1** · 06-19-2006

Push. I figure people will assume you're pushing tilt so your cards should be live.

**the alex** · 06-19-2006

Fold. She's gonna call you with any two cards and you never know when you're gonna go on a run. The blinds are such that you've got 3 orbits to catch a hand and go on a run.

**Beavis68** · 06-19-2006

I would definitely want to get something going in the next orbit.

Let assume they will call you with a wide range of hands.

Any ace, any two broadway, any pair. K8s+, Q9s.

This make basically 30% of the hands.

you are going to pick up the pot half the time, if the times you call, you are going to double 1 in 3 and bust 2 in three (lets ignore call from both players).

Unless you think they wont adjust to your raise, just fold. (doing a SnG is interesting too).

**Jason75** · 06-19-2006

Originally Posted by Beavis68

I would definitely want to get something going in the next orbit.

Let assume they will call you with a wide range of hands.

Any ace, any two broadway, any pair. K8s+, Q9s.

This make basically 30% of the hands.

you are going to pick up the pot half the time, if the times you call, you are going to double 1 in 3 and bust 2 in three (lets ignore call from both players).

Unless you think they wont adjust to your raise, just fold. (doing a SnG is interesting too).

I think your range for the SB is correct, but way too loose for the BB. I'm thinking he's going to need any 2 broadway, pair 77+, A8+. The dude literally squeaked he was so tight. I'm at work so no poker stove . . .

I think the effect of changing his range would likely give me the pot more often, while decreasing my overall win% when called slightly.

**Beavis68** · 06-19-2006

probably too loose for both of them. just giving a worst case.

But I still think the pot is too small. You best case here is about +21chips in EV for a push.

Raising to 3-4x is more interesting though, and you probably get called by the same hands ranges.

**the alex** · 06-19-2006

Uh, Jason,

You're forgetting A2-A7, any King, and 22-77. People will call with almost anything for a little bit to knock someone out and they know that if they call you 3 times, they only need to win once to knock you out.

**Jason75** · 06-19-2006

Originally Posted by the alex

Uh, Jason,

You're forgetting A2-A7, any King, and 22-77. People will call with almost anything for a little bit to knock someone out and they know that if they call you 3 times, they only need to win once to knock you out.

For the SB, I think you're correct. For the BB, the guy is very tight, and 375, while only an M of 5, represents about 1/4 of his existing stack. The fewer chips I have, the more I think he opens his calling range up . . .

This is still the beginning of the tourney, so I'm not sure either player is thinking about knocking me out . . . .

**Beavis68** · 06-19-2006

there is no value in knocking anyone out at this stage of the tournament.

not many people would want to lose 17bbs here or double up the short stack.

but it doesnt matter, because the value in pushing is pretty small.

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