PF: Don't really like the reraise amount . . . villian is getting 3:1 on his money here, and is very likely to call with just about anything he raised with. The only reason I see to reraise this amount is that we want to take the initiative away from villian and discourage a continuation bet on the flop. There's not a ton of flops that 9's like, but there are enough that getting a check from villian and putting in a continuation bet may win the pot on the flop.

With an M of 11-12, I likely push all in here. Why? We're in the $, and this is usually the part of the field that has a fairly flat payout structure. I'd be looking to double up here to take a shot at going farther in the tourney. Calling here and playing for set value is also an option, but you don't get far in these things by being that conservative (IMO).

Flop: Ok, talk about a shitty flop. But there's the check from villian. He's a known check-raiser, it's a 23K pot, we've got about 33K left, so I'm all in here - (I likely say "check raise that mutherfucker" after I hit the raise button). If he's got AK or AQ and can make this call, then it's just my unlucky friggin day. But I'm not going to make a 1/2 pot bet just to get check raised all in and face calling off all my chips with 99 against an A on the board.

We check. Hmm . . . we're saying that either we're afraid of the A, or we're slowplaying AA, AK, AQ.

Turn: The ten actually doesn't hurt us much, as AT is already ahead of us and could call our bet already. AT does now become a definite calling hand (I would have put it at 50/50 on the flop) if we go all in. TT improves to a calling hand now as well.

Here's our problem, if we overbet the pot now after checking the flop, we look really weak. I mean, who slow plays the flop just to push out their opponent on the turn? But if we just fire a small bet out there we could get check raised all in and I don't see how we do anything other than fold. I also don't like checking here, as we'll likely see villian lead out since we've played so weakly. And given the pot size and our chipstack, we can't come over the top of a 2/3 pot sized bet or larger.

I bet 1/3 the pot (about 8K) as the least worst option. It represents a monster trying to get more $ in the pot (or a weak attempt to steal it!!). I am now prepared to fold to a check raise, and am prepared to fold on the river to any sizeable bet. If villian calls and checks on the river, I think we could fire a 2nd shell at this pot by pushing the rest of our chips (25K) at him and hope for the best. Or we could check the hand down and hope our 9's are best.

All in all, I think that given villian's history as a check raiser, our M, the stack sizes (virtually identical), our PF reraise, and the pot size on the flop, we needed to push all in on the flop. But I could see how the flop (which was about the worst of all possible flops) could slow me down in the heat of battle.

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Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
Beavis68: You play poker.
Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

One thing I'll say before telling you guys the rest of the story is that we can file an overbet under "Nuh-uh." I don't do it. I play too many pots and bet at too many pots to get away with a cliche "I'm scared" move like that. I damn near never go all-in in a tourney either unless I'm low on chips. This is still the mid-mid-stage no matter how large the field was

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This is one reason I like to randomize my bets more. Most of my bets will also be smaller, however, I throw in overbets into the mix for just this reason.

If you're talking about the flop, I'm not sure this matters. Villian likes to check raise with any A, we've put him on a weak A, and we've represented a big hand. Our stack doesn't allow for much manuevering here. If we make a small bet and get check raised, and fold, we're in push/fold mode with an M of 8-9. Any observant player would realize that you're just as likely to go all in here with AK on the flop as you are a bluff, given your stack size. And if he's not observant, then it doesn't matter.

Of course, observant players make mistakes . . . and that could be bad for us. But I think we have to accept reality that our options are fairly limited here.

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Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
Beavis68: You play poker.
Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

no, when the average stacks are this low, it is the late stages, no matter how many people are left.

Jason's looks right on too me.

Okay, I agree with the push it PF crowd. I also like Aces-O-8s strategy of pushing it on the flop. You haven't said that this guy makes bad calls (unless I missed it)...just that he loves to overuse the CR.

But, given that we haven't yet pushed and we are on the turn...here's my thoughts.

I like the 1/3 to 1/2 pot bet on the turn. You said he likes to CR TPWK, but if you both checked the flop I would think he wouldn't give you another free card on the turn...so why didn't he bet out with a pair of aces? But let's assume he loves the CR SO MUCH that he will also check the turn to get a CR in. Okay, then I know if my turn bet is CRed, I'm beat. I fold and look for a double up hand. If he only calls my turn bet, then I can fairly safely assume that he doesn't have the ace and TT is just about the only hand I am worried about. But I would think a big CRer would also want to CR that on the turn.

Now he calls and we are on the river. If there's another overcard and he bets, I fold. If there is no overcard and he bets...HELL, I DON'T KNOW. I look deep in his computer avatar's eyes and try to get a read. Actually, I think ypsieast had a good analysis on the river call. If he doesn't bet the river...neither do I.

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CORYAN
I don't play a lot of hands....I just play a lot of them poorly.

I like the reraise preflop but I really don't feel the need to push it preflop, particularly against who seems likely to call with a bigger range than the average.

why would you be afraid of a bigger range of hands than average?

99 is good enough to in this spot that you wold like a call from a wide range of hands rather than go fold equity.

Irexes, what purpose does that pre-flop raise make? I don't get it at all.

Why push here? Sounds like there is little folding equity if we are beat. "He may have an A or may not. Screw it, do or die with my nines." That might be worth the risk if the field is tough, but Alex doesn't need this hand to do well. He's likely better than the competion and can find a better spot. Plenty of poker left.
Like I said, I think its costlier to probe (or push) the turn than to give up a free card. We are only beating King high or underpair, and there are only 2 or 10 outs for these. Value call a blank on the river or fold.
If anything, I think a smaller raise pf might have been better for controlling the size of the pot. But a raise was necessary to keep CL (button) and blinds out of the pot to get isolated against Villain. Would have worked great if there was no Ace on the flop (most of the time).

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"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

There's the chance of taking it down preflop (small admittedly, but possible).

Then there's three kinds of flops.

Flops I like, flops he likes, and flops neither of us like. The preflop raise makes it easier to win the ones neither of us like.

As I say, at this point of tourneys I feel I am playing the strength of my opponents cards more than I am playing the strength of my own.

Missed this bit (drinking during England game).

If I reraise allin with 99 I am looking at the decent fold equity to make it a worthwhile move and that comes from people folding KQ, AJ etc.

From Alex description this guy is calling with them and it's a flip for my life.

For the record I'd probably push JJ.