Top pair and a Flush draw - Page 2

Av8tor009 · #11 (**permalink**) 06-13-2006, 04:24 PM

ok... so everyones allin... so what happened?

Irexes · #12 (**permalink**) 06-13-2006, 04:25 PM

I'll post that tomorrow Avi, with my rationale for the push.

Have at me chaps.

Av8tor009 · #13 (**permalink**) 06-13-2006, 04:28 PM

aww... just post it in white... im a very impatient impulsive american... and im bored out of my mind

Beavis68 · #14 (**permalink**) 06-13-2006, 04:30 PM

I see you had tons of fold equity.

I used to push in spots like this - and I usally prefer pushing to raising unless the stacks are huge.

you are a slight favorite to an over pair, slight dog to TPbetterK and if some, and could be up against a better draw.

Av8tor009 · #15 (**permalink**) 06-13-2006, 04:33 PM

personally i love the push... the original bettor is sandwiched between an allin and another caller acting after him... and the other person's hand was too weak to raise the original bet, so he probably cant call... good old fashioned squeeze play

Jason75 · #16 (**permalink**) 06-13-2006, 05:22 PM

Wow, everyone in the free world in the pot . . .

TP & FD could easily be a trap hand here. And if anyone knows you have zero folding equity here, it's you Rex.

Before you make a raise, we need to ask ourselves 2 critical questions:

1) Will any better hands fold to this raise?
2) Will worse hands call our raise?

The answer to #1 is no way. AT, KT, QT, and even JT are going to call here. 2 pair is going all the way. Any set is going all the way. No one is going to fold for the same reason that we get 2 callers when everyone limps PF, we hit our set, and we jump all in on the flop.

The answer to #2 is probably, but only a more narrow range of hands. 44-99 likely calls here (yes, welcome to donkville), AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/KJ/QJ calls (though decreasing frequency as the hand strength decreases). Any FD likely calls as well.

So given the amount of volatility, I think we just want to call and see a card. We've got 12 good outs here, and raising gives a better hand that just bet/called behind us a chance to reraise and force us out.

If we had TP with the nut or 2nd nut flush draw (ATd/KTd), I'd like the push much more, and would welcome callers.

If someone behind you goes all in and gets a couple of callers, then you'll know that either your TP or FD is no good and can get out of the hand.

Eclipse86 · #17 (**permalink**) 06-14-2006, 01:29 AM

Probably raise to about 400-500 on the flop and play it from there.
maybe even push since there bets were so weak.

Irexes · #18 (**permalink**) 06-14-2006, 05:55 AM

Here's my thinking.

The 100 bet from Cappy on the flop to a pot of 200 could mean absolutely anything. The call from Marlow is more helpful.

Based on the preflop action I'm pretty comfortable ruling out big pocket pairs QQ-AA. JJ remains a slight possibility based on the preflop action.

Further, neither of their bets make sense for an overpair as they have failed to protect their hand if they have JJ-QQ. Of course they could be total fish, but I'd expect a bit more action to this point with an overpair.

Cappys bet says to me it's either a token stab at the pot or he's got a small part of it and wants information. Marlow's call says to me he either has a marginal holding ie. mid pocket pair or a flush draw or overcards (JK etc).

So I'm not worried about Marlow. If he's on the flush draw then I currently have him beat as he can't have a better current hand. He may have better diamonds than me but I've got two of his outs.

Cappy is more of a concern but I'm prepared to risk the set or better kicker.

So what do I do? First think I thought when I saw the flop was, there's a bear trap waiting to spring on me.

I really don't like the call. If I'm ahead it gives someone the chance to overtake me. And more to the point I'm probably going to lose more chips on the turn or river (if they bet big I'll lay it down but another 200 or so is going to be very tempting). I can see the merit of calling to look for a diamond, but it just seems too passive for me and I only played the hand because I would have position. I've got position, I'm probably ahead, so I'm going to make the other guys make a mistake. Most importantly I do think I have a lot of fold equity here. I didn't think I was going to get a call, I agree with Jason about the way to play this things by inducing calls from fish, but I reckon this is a tough one. I do think KTo+ is calling me. No way they're laying down at this level but surely Tx would have protected their hand on the flop.

And of course I have a bunch of outs if I am behind (anywhere between 9 and 14 depending).

That's half the story.

If they fold I pick up a nice pot which will enable me to fold my way to the 100/200 blind level with safety (monsters aside), by then I'll have the image of a rock and a decent read on the table. I'll also have blasted allin in memorable fashion early enough that if I pick up KK, AA in the next orbit I'm more likely to get a call.

If they call (and I really wasn't expecting 2 calls) then I either win and double up (which is making it very likely I will cash) or I lose in which case I have only lost 2 minutes on this SnG and can start another. Assuming I'm a winning player then I can just get on with the next game and begin recouping my losses.

Finally I really hate losing more than a handful of chips in the first half hour of a sit and go. If I play a hand it should be because I am trying to win a monster. Calling the flop and bleeding a few more chips on the later streets really doesn't sit with my strategy. If the hand isn't good enough because of the strength of my hole cards then I should have folded preflop (incidentally this is the opposite of my MTT strategy

).

So there we have it. And the result......

I was absolutely, completely, totally, wrong about everything...

Cappy had

and Marlow had

And of course I hit

on the river to prove what a fish I am

the alex · #19 (**permalink**) 06-14-2006, 11:25 AM

Given your rationale, I like the push. So, you were wrong. You trusted yourself. You made the ultiamte move to not let your opponents get a second chance to make the right move.

Irexes=donk

Jason75 · #20 (**permalink**) 06-14-2006, 11:31 AM

Well, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

In all honesty, I think you could pontificate endlessly about the players here, and I think it's all worthless on the 2nd hand of a SNG.

AA is just as much a possibility as 32, and everything in between here. . . . your all in is like hanging an "all you can eat" sign at a buffet during a weight watchers convention. People know they probably shouldn't go there, but just can't help themselves.

And if you take a look at your flush draw, you're only ahead of 4 flush draws, and dominated by 4 others. Worse yet, even though you "have 2 of their outs" to the better flush draws, they more than compensate by having at least one overcard to the board.

If you push here, you have to know that you're almost never ahead, and I hate getting my stack in the pot when I'm not a huge favorite this early.

I hear you about just firing up another SNG, but I think that line of thinking leads to a lower ROI, as we begin to accept bad decisions based on some kind of vague "hourly rate" consideration (when in fact it hurts our hourly rate to lose $22 in 2 minutes).

One possible reason to push here is the implied odds. I figure most times in situations like these, you'll get between 2-3 callers (some of which you'll have beat - sometimes), so you know you're looking at getting at least 2.3-3.3:1 on your money.