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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > General Poker Strategy > NL River Play Analysis.

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 06-10-2006, 11:53 PM
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Default NL River Play Analysis.

NL50 game on PokerRoom.

No particular read on villian, except that you have seen him call a min raise before in the BB with K3o and check-call the turn and the river when he paired the K on the turn. Which leads me to believe he may be loose passive. Although I dont have enough info on him to get a solid enough read.


I have about a $59 dollar stack, villian covers

I get 77 in LP

Villian limps in MP-LP
I limp
Sb completes, BB checks

4 to the flop

Flop is 7 8 T (with 2 diamonds)

sb checks, bb checks
Villian bets $1 into a pot of $1.70
I raise to $3.50
folds around to villian who calls.

Turn is a A of clubs - Board is now 7 8 T A (with 2 diamonds)

villian checks
I bet PS of about $8.5
villian calls.

River is a T of clubs - Board is now 7 8 T A T with no possible flush on the board.

villian leads out for $20 (potsize at that point was about $25)
hero ??????????? (have about $47 left in my stack)




what is your river play here and why?

also comments on other streets are also welcome.



EDIT:

Here are the results, thanks for all the feedback and replies.

I pushed river, he called and flipped over AT

Last edited by Eclipse86; 06-11-2006 at 05:03 PM.
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Old 06-11-2006, 12:00 AM
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I'd call. It looks like he flopped a straight and is hoping that you have three tens. I wouldn't re-raise because of Ace-Ten, but I wouldn't be scared enough to fold.
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Old 06-11-2006, 12:33 AM
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raise it... he probably missed his draw

if he had any sort of monster hand he would check and let you hang yourself... you have a boat, so besides him having quads there shouldnt be anything that concerns you...
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Old 06-11-2006, 12:36 AM
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How much does "Villian" have left? There are people who seem to never wanna get below a certain dollar amount and there are people who are just dumb? Which one of those is he?

I just re-read the hand and with no read, I'm still calling. There's a lot of reason to believe that he liked the Ace, so he could just as well have A9, A8, or A7 as AT.

But if you don't beat him, I don't know if you're getting anymore money from him unless he flopped a straight or has a 10.
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Last edited by Jen-Jen The Enjen; 06-11-2006 at 12:40 AM.
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Old 06-11-2006, 12:41 AM
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villain bets 20 into a 25 dollar pot

you have to call 20 into a 45 dollar pot with the obvious best hand.

you have 47 left in your stack... all of it is going in when you raise here

villain has to call 27 more of your raise to win a pot of 92... pretty sure you will get paid off almost every time
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Old 06-11-2006, 12:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Av8tor009
villain bets 20 into a 25 dollar pot

you have to call 20 into a 45 dollar pot with the obvious best hand.

you have 47 left in your stack... all of it is going in when you raise here

villain has to call 27 more of your raise to win a pot of 92... pretty sure you will get paid off almost every time
Good point. I should just "Trust my f'n read. I'm asking questions to which I already have the answers." I think he has a straight. Scratch everything I said. Go all-in.
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Old 06-11-2006, 12:56 AM
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i guess if i had to put him on one hand... i would say he had a busted nut flush draw and now has aces up... if he had a straight or AA or AT he would have done more to protect his made hand on the flop from any draws.. his more passive play of this hand leads me to believe he was on some sort of a draw. however, considering he cold called such a large bet on the turn, it leads me to believe he would have not only a very strong draw but one that already has hit something... most likely an ace-high flush draw tht just hit top pair. on the river, he unexpectedly makes a large bet... the classic tell for someone who has missed on a draw... if you noticed anything in the entire hand, notice the big bet on the river... a huge sign of weakness... if he had A-T or AA (or god forbid T-T) not only would he have played the flop and turn a little stronger.. but he would have checked the river to let you make another bet at it before raising you.
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Last edited by Av8tor009; 06-11-2006 at 12:58 AM.
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Old 06-11-2006, 02:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jen-Jen The Enjen
How much does "Villian" have left?
Villian covers me, meaning he has more money then me at the table. I think he had about 10 or so dollars more then me.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jen-Jen The Enjen
There are people who seem to never wanna get below a certain dollar amount and there are people who are just dumb? Which one of those is he?
not really sure, aside from what i saw him do on that 1 hand. I had no reads on him.
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Old 06-11-2006, 07:41 AM
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Well if he is a loose-passive, his limping in might very well be A-T but it could also be any number of x-T combos such as Q-To/s or J-To/s. His bet-call on the flop might be expected if he were betting 2nd pair or top pair with a low kicker. While it may be possible he had 2 pair such as 8-T unless he were excessively passive I would expect him to re-r your re-r. If he had flopped the a str8, he'd be playing with fire if he wanted to slowplay it with a flush draw on the board. Although a bet-call for an OESD or Flush draw are common enough and more likely than a flopped str8.

Turn - I don't see where the Ace helped him here unless he has a severe case of FPS compounded by acute stupidity! Slowplaying 2 pair to the river with a flush and str8 board is idiotic. If the Ace helped he would have ck-raised.

River - he seems to like the 2nd T doesn't he. It could represent a scare card but if he didn't have one before, he would (should?) have put you onto top pair with the re-r on the flop making this scare-card bluff rather dumb especially when he could have used the Ace on the turn to put in a scare-card bluff! I don't think he's bluffing!
But if he had x-T such as J-T or Q-T he might conclude that you are less likely to have the case ten after all and he lead out with trip Tens. If this is the case, you still have the best hand with a FH 7s full of tens. But let's assume he does have A-T or and was donkying the turn with a slowplay and the T on the river just gave him the nuts! Not that likely but he definately wants you to believe something!
If he hadn't lead out what was your bet going to be and do you think your villian would have called? With a FH I'll assume you would want to keep it attractive enough to solicite a call so lets say 1/2 pot giving villian 3:1 to call - that would have been $12.50. His bet was $20 and more than you probably would have made it and expect any call. When presented with a gift, one shouldn't get greedy - just call! If he was donkying it w/A-T or even T-8, you've saved the remainder of your stack.
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Last edited by Aces-o-8s; 06-11-2006 at 07:58 AM.
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Old 06-11-2006, 07:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Av8tor009
raise it... he probably missed his draw
if he missed, then why raise it? your raise has no value.
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