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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > General Poker Strategy > NL River Play Analysis.

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  #41 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 08:13 PM
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I will say this (sorry about the giberish comment) you did an EXCELLENT job with the hand ranges. Seriously, great work there, and probably spot on.

and I realize you made it clear that he wanted a call. that is why i used your logic and hand ranges.

just for anyone else reading this, I wanted to make sure it was noted that it was an important part of the calculation the he calls you with 100% of the hands he bets with (ie his bet is never a busted draw bluff).

Last edited by Beavis68; 06-11-2006 at 08:15 PM.
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  #42 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 11:34 PM
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I think this has been an interesting discussion, and I think I finally understand what your saying Alex. The key was weather or not you could make the bet with the dice multiple times.

So assuimng
a) your ahead here 1/4 of time
b) he calls a raise %100 of the time

Raising nets you more money in the long run, I am sure about this.

But alex's point is that you have a better ratio of pot odds vs equity in this hand if you call. To put it another way, your getting more potential winnings verses the amount of money your putting in.

Calling gives you 1:3.25 on your money while being a 3:1 favorite to win.
Raising gives you 1:2.5 on your money while being 3:1 favorite to win.

Calling is obviously the superior bet , but since we want to get as much money in the pot as we can when we're any sort of favorite, raising still ends up netting us more money. Its a tricky situation as the odds constantly change as the amount of money being put in the pot does.

Heh after I posted this it seems kinda basic, but something def clicked in my head after thinking about this for a bit...
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BB is t100
Preflop: Hero is UTG with :3d :5d,
Hero raises to t500

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YOU ARE WEAK AND LOOSE. JUST LIKE AN OLD HOOKER! BAD HOOKER! BAD!

Last edited by Fishodeath; 06-11-2006 at 11:37 PM.
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  #43 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2006, 08:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishodeath
But alex's point is that you have a better ratio of pot odds vs equity in this hand if you call. To put it another way, your getting more potential winnings verses the amount of money your putting in.
This is one of the strangest concepts I have ever heard of. Bet ROI.

So if your opponent check, you just call when you have the nuts because then your ROI is infinite?

ROI is being extremely misused here, and will lead to making terrible decisions.
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  #44 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2006, 09:05 PM
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u know what happened to me today?

deep stacked i had about $160 at a $50 nl table, villian has over $100

i had TT in the bb

everybody limped to me, so i decided to play for set value, check is good

flop is T 3 7 rainbow

i check, somebody bet $2, another guy called, and i called. really no turn card could hurt me so i tried to build a pot

turn is a T i checked figureing im crippleing the deck and my best chance is to hope somebody bets

mp bets like $6, one caller, i raise to $18. small douche raise, again, building the pot

mp calls, other guy folds

river is completely blank, and i bet about the size of the pot it was like $40 or something, assuming he will prolly just fold unless he has some slowplayed big pair or boat

VILLIAN JUST CALLS THE BET WITH 33, 3'S FULL OF 10'S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HOW DOES HE NOT PUSH AND PAY ME OFF FOR $100 MORE??!?!!?!!?!?!?!???!?!?!!?!!!?!?!?!?!??!!?!?!?! ??!?!

he probably read this thread and decided not to push.
this thread just cost me $100.
gaaaaaaaaaaay
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  #45 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2006, 10:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tightagressive
he probably read this thread and decided not to push.
this thread just cost me $100.
gaaaaaaaaaaay
hahaha.. this is why i dont like to slow play sets, other people get really weak-tight on the turn and river, and end up not paying you off... and u leave alot of money on the table
i think u would of had him all in on the flop if u checkraised.
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