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Go Back PokerForums.org > Strategy Discussion > General Poker Strategy > NL River Play Analysis.

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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 05:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fishodeath
75% of the time we're winning $45 = $33.75 avg
25% of the time we're losing $20 = -$5 avg
Total- = $28.75 avg profit on a call here.
Total Get= $25 in the pot + $20 bet from Villian= $45
Total Lay= $20
You're Laying $20 to Get $45 giving you 45:20 or 2.25:1 on a pot you'll win 3 out of 4 times.


Quote:
For a push-
75% of the time we're winning $72 = $54 avg
25% of the time we're losing $47 = -$11.25 avg
Total- = $45.75 avg profit on push
Total Get= $25+$47= $72
Total Lay= $47
You're Laying $47 to Get $72 giving you 72:47 or about 1.5:1 on the pot that you'll win 3 out of 4 times.

To justify a raise of $47, there'd have to be a (Pot In the Middle of the Table+ $47) of at least $105.75.

If you wanna be technical, the Total Get includes your Lay, because we're calculating the Expected Value from each invested dollar.
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GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
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WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus

Last edited by the alex; 06-11-2006 at 05:09 PM.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 05:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the alex
If you wanna be technical, the Total Get includes your Lay, because we're calculating the Expected Value from each invested dollar.

Total Get= $25 in the pot + $20 bet from Villian +$20 bet from hero = $65
Total Lay= $20
You're Laying $20 to Get $65 giving you 13:4 or 3.25:1 on a pot you'll win 3 out of 4 times.

Total Get= $25+$47 +$47= $119
Total Lay= $47
You're Laying $47 to Get $119 giving you 2.53:1 on the pot that you'll win 3 out of 4 times
If you include your bet in the "lay" (btw I dont sports bet at all so this doesnt make tons of sense to me) I think we end up on the same page.

BTW - I'm being so picky about this b/c your suggesting thats it incorrect to raise on the river when we're a 3:1 favorite to be ahead. Which seems very counter-intuitive and if true will force me to change the way I think about this game...
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BB is t100
Preflop: Hero is UTG with :3d :5d,
Hero raises to t500

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marm
YOU ARE WEAK AND LOOSE. JUST LIKE AN OLD HOOKER! BAD HOOKER! BAD!
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 05:30 PM
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of course it isnt true.

the pot odds don't matter when you raise on the river. you expection is all that matters.

if your opponet will always call you, and you will win more than half the time, the raise is the best choice. It doesn't matter how much is in the pot.

I have no idea what alex is trying to say, and why he is adding his own bet into the "get".

That isn't how you figure out EV.

Last edited by Beavis68; 06-11-2006 at 05:33 PM.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 05:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beavis68
of course it isnt true.

the pot odds don't matter when you raise on the river. you expection is all that matters.

if your opponet will always call you, and you will win more than half the time, the raise is the best choice. It doesn't matter how much is in the pot.
thanks. I was gettin worried there.
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BB is t100
Preflop: Hero is UTG with :3d :5d,
Hero raises to t500

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marm
YOU ARE WEAK AND LOOSE. JUST LIKE AN OLD HOOKER! BAD HOOKER! BAD!
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 05:37 PM
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so.... what happened... i assume you pushed and he turned over A-x of diamonds after calling?
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 06:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Av8tor009
so.... what happened... i assume you pushed and he turned over A-x of diamonds after calling?
I pushed, he called and turned over AT
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 06:05 PM
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Shitty, I think pushing is still the right move, I'm thinking he makes this bet with any 10. Also if the river doesnt boat him he's still calling a large bet, tought luck.
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BB is t100
Preflop: Hero is UTG with :3d :5d,
Hero raises to t500

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marm
YOU ARE WEAK AND LOOSE. JUST LIKE AN OLD HOOKER! BAD HOOKER! BAD!
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 06:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beavis68
I have no idea what alex is trying to say, and why he is adding his own bet into the "get".
I'm not adding bet into the Get.

The expection is: A Call of Anything.

Pot= $25
Your Raise is to $47
Villian's Bet+All in Call= $47

Your Get= $72 (Pot+Villian's bet+all in call)

Am I speaking in tongues?
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 06:17 PM
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Haven't you people ever gambled?

The orginal term "Get" comes from this:
I go a sportsbook.
I LAY $100 on the Bulls +7
The Bulls lose by 5.
I go back to the Sportsbook with my ticket and GET: $200

Get turned into Net.
Expected Profit (EP)= Get minus Lay

EP turned into EV which is (EP/Lay-1)

People, now use the terms Get as EP, which is how I described, henceforth, ergo, and hithertowhich:

Quote:
Originally Posted by the alex
If you wanna be technical...
Rasing has a lower EP. Raising has a lower EV.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus

Last edited by the alex; 06-11-2006 at 06:23 PM.
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2006, 06:32 PM
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So if I had a 4 sided dice and I offered you two options -

a) You pay $20 and if the dice hits 1,2,3 you win $65 (net of $45)
Dice hits 4, you get nothing


b) you pay $47 and if the dice hits 1,2,3 you win $119 (net of $72)
Dice hits 4, you get nothing

Your saying you'd take option A?

note- before you get tricky, this is would be one time offer
__________________
BB is t100
Preflop: Hero is UTG with :3d :5d,
Hero raises to t500

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marm
YOU ARE WEAK AND LOOSE. JUST LIKE AN OLD HOOKER! BAD HOOKER! BAD!

Last edited by Fishodeath; 06-11-2006 at 06:34 PM.
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