Quote:
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Originally Posted by Beavis68
if he missed, then why raise it? your raise has no value.
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I agree with Beavis here. With what's he gonna call a raise that we can put him on. I'm gonna make this point clear about my personal read:
He wants you to call or raise all in.
1.) KT- 8 ways
2.) JT- 8 ways
3.) J9- 16 ways
4.) T9- 8 ways
5.) AK thru AJ and A9- 36 ways
6.) Ad8d, Ad9d, or Ad7d- 1 way. I don't know where the 7 of diamonds is.
7.) Ad6d-Ad2d- 5 ways
8.) 88- 3 ways
9.)TT-1 way
10.) AA- 3 ways (and this would not surprise all too much. It'd just piss me off.)
11.) AT- 6 ways
I've got 95 possibilities.
- The $20 on the river is heavily doubtful from Groups 5 thru 7. (98-42= )
- Of the 53 left, he'll call the raise with all of the groups I left out. He wants a call. A raise would look better to him. He thinks he has the best hand and I think that's important. He's gonna call ANY raise.
- You beat 40 combinations. You lose to 13 combinations.
- You're roughly 3:1 at having the best hand.
Calling: You'll get $135 for every $80 you lay- 1.7:1
Raising: You'll get $216 for every $188 you lay- about 1.1:1
Calling is about +$6.75EV over raising.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Aces-o-8s
His bet was $20 and more than you probably would have made it and expect any call. When presented with a gift...
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That said, I'm not doing all of this math here because I'm thinkin' you got backdoored by Aces. I don't know what it is. Maybe it's the
gift Everything from the minimum PF raise to the cold call of your re-raise is classic stupidity, but it's also classic FPS. What is the hell is he gonna call $8.50 on the turn
and lead for $20 (4/5 the pot) on the river? I'm not saying that this is good, observant player, but with Aces and PFS, a person gets very observant toward their opponent's betting in relation to the pot, so they know how much they can rape them for on the river.
My math could've been horrible and feel free to critique it, but I doubt that my math was off by more than a 30+% margin of error to justify a raise. My gut says Aces and I think that's just the more basic math in my subconscious saying to call and that's what "gut" really is in my opinion, for extra little tidbit of my "gut theories."
EDIT: A number bit.
EDIT #2: Forgot to add the Dead Man's quote.
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