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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 06-10-2006, 06:43 AM
Dizzy_Fuzz's Avatar
Check Raiser
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 759
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Default Flopped Flush

Im not really asking for advice here but wouldnt mind knowing what the % chance is that the players calling have 1 heart or 2 hearts.

Paradise Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
8 players
Converter
Table "Orango" (real money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Seat 1: tallbug's ($9.90 in chips)
Seat 2: KENNY rake ($0.00 in chips)
Seat 3: Dizzy_Fuzz ($23.80 in chips)
Seat 4: Livy_RFC ($9.80 in chips)
Seat 6: mcfall_const ($14.70 in chips)
Seat 8: rockey10 ($14.60 in chips)
Seat 9: hummble ($19.08 in chips)
Seat 10: salmon99 ($11.80 in chips)
tallbug's: Post Small Blind ($0.05)
Dizzy_Fuzz: Post Big Blind ($0.10)

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is BB with
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button calls, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.45, 5 players)
Button checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $0.1, MP2 calls, Button raises to $0.4, Hero raises to $1.1, UTG+1 raises to $1.8, MP2 folds, Button calls, Hero raises to $23.7, UTG+1 calls all-in $12.8.
Uncalled bets: $9.1 returned to Hero.

Turn: ($40.65, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $31.55, Sidepot 1: $9.1)

River: ($40.65, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $31.55, Sidepot 1: $9.1)

Results:
Final pot: $40.65
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 06-10-2006, 07:32 AM
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Mike McDermott
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Michigan
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Default

i would have lead out on the flop

nh though
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 06-10-2006, 07:39 AM
PokerForums God
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 8,172
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Default

from a purely random stand point. you know five cards on the flop. so there are 47 left, those make up 1081 combinations. there are 8 hearts left 28 combinations you are only beating 63s,62s, and 32s for 25 of those combos are beating you. So, 2% chance you are up against a high flush.

The odds of them having a higher one card flush draw to beat you. 5*39 =195

which is 18% from a purely random view, that is 20% that you are beaten or he has a draw to beat you. then slowed down since the board paired. He probably has a set, two pair or maybe

but with action on the flop, I would say those odds are not accurate. You hae to know what hands your opponent would make those moves with. If I were you I would have waited until the turn to push.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 06-10-2006, 07:42 AM
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Mike McDermott
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beavis68

but with action on the flop, I would say those odds are not accurate. You hae to know what hands your opponent would make those moves with. If I were you I would have waited until the turn to push.
yeah, here a good line would have been lead out on the flop for about the size of the pot, just call his raise, the push/lead out big on any safe turn
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