Importance of pot odds in NL Tournaments - Page 4

Fishodeath · #31 (**permalink**) 06-08-2006, 06:57 PM

Jason I wasnt sure about my explination above, is my math correct?

Jason75 · #32 (**permalink**) 06-08-2006, 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fishodeath

Your cant count your money before you have it.

In your heads up example the chip EV of the vullaun might be close to 10,000. But you say its the full first place prize money implies that he CANT lose.

Say villain has a %80 chance to win with the stacks as they are (considering skill as well).

Villan current EV is (.8 * 10,0000) + (.2 * 5,000) = 9000
Heros current EV is (.2 * 10,000) + (.8 * 5,000) = 6000

Now assume your looking at a coin flip where the % of winning will flip should hero win

Villians EV (for calling on the flip) is (.5 * 10,000) + (.5 * 6000) = 8000
Heros EV (for calling on the flip is (.5 *9,000) + (.5 * 5,000) = 7000

The parts in bold are the EV that player would end at should hero win the flip.

So in this case, where the villian is a 4:1 favorite to win the event, he should fold if he knows its a coinflip decision, b/c calling so is actually a -$EV move.

Actually, since hero and villian can do no worse than 2nd place, the money for 2nd doesn't matter. It's just the difference between 1st and 2nd that matters, as that is really what they're playing for.

So it's $5k, and it's a "winner take all", which means that only first place pays. Since only 1 place pays, chip equity directly equals real $ equity.

In a tiered payout structure, chip equity = x% of real money equity, but where max x% equals the 1st place payout prize, and never equals the total prize pool.

So for instance, if we have a total prize pool of $10,000 where 1st place pays $5,000: If the chip counts are 9000 (you), 500, 500 . . .you only have 50% of the total prize pool equity, not 90%. You can't win more than 1st place money!!

Beavis68 · #33 (**permalink**) 06-08-2006, 08:13 PM

that is not what "freezeout" means Jason. Freezeout means it is a non-rebuy. When you lose your chips you are done.

http://www.onlinepokerfaq.com/guide/...nts-rebuy.html

Jason75 · #34 (**permalink**) 06-08-2006, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beavis68

that is not what "freezeout" means Jason. Freezeout means it is a non-rebuy. When you lose your chips you are done.

http://www.onlinepokerfaq.com/guide/...nts-rebuy.html

winner take all, whatever . . . my wires are crossed today

G_The_Jester · #35 (**permalink**) 06-09-2006, 05:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Fishodeath

So in this case, where the villian is a 4:1 favorite to win the event, he should fold if he knows its a coinflip decision, b/c calling so is actually a -$EV move.

So you agree with me!

The skill of the villain is a factor only up to the point of this hand and after this hand. It cannot affect the odds of the hand. It is still a 50/50 call.

The fact the Villain is better than the Hero merely means that if he loses this hand it is not guaranteed that he will lose the tournament. How you would factor in such a theory is very grey maths, especially heads up as the short stack you have limited options.

G_The_Jester · #36 (**permalink**) 06-09-2006, 05:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason75

I don't understand how Hero is "inside the bubble" but Villian is "on the bubble". Either the whole tournament field is on the bubble or ITM. If you're saying that the first ITM payout is $1k and hero has 1K in chips while Villian has 800 chips, then it depends on a number of factors such as the blinds, stack positions, etc. For instance, if villian is across table from hero and the blinds are 200/400 and villian has 800 after posting the SB, villian is actually ahead of hero in terms of hero's blinding out and putting villian in the $.

I'll clarify ... the hero is already sitting in a position (lets say 50th) that pays out $1000. The villain sits in 51st place currently out of the money currently paying $0; with 51 players left in the tourney.

Jason75 · #37 (**permalink**) 06-09-2006, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G_The_Jester

I'll clarify ... the hero is already sitting in a position (lets say 50th) that pays out $1000. The villain sits in 51st place currently out of the money currently paying $0; with 51 players left in the tourney.

Given that there are likely other stacks who could go out first on other tables, it's probably -EV to play any hand right now for either player other than maybe AA. . . but it all depends on the blinds, how many other short stacks there are, etc . . .

This is why big stacks can exploit the bubble by pushing around everyone who is blinding off towards the $.

Jason75 · #38 (**permalink**) 06-09-2006, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G_The_Jester

So you agree with me!

The skill of the villain is a factor only up to the point of this hand and after this hand. It cannot affect the odds of the hand. It is still a 50/50 call.

The fact the Villain is better than the Hero merely means that if he loses this hand it is not guaranteed that he will lose the tournament. How you would factor in such a theory is very grey maths, especially heads up as the short stack you have limited options.

Reread my post and response to Fish. It's a breakeven play for either one. . . . and that's assuming no $ in the pot. So given a typical heads up match at then end of an MTT, it's +EV for either to call a coinflip all in.

Note that if the blinds are small, and one player has a significant skill edge over the other, then it would likely be -EV for the skillful player to call a coinflip.

G_The_Jester · #39 (**permalink**) 06-09-2006, 03:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jason75

Given that there are likely other stacks who could go out first on other tables, it's probably -EV to play any hand right now for either player other than maybe AA. . . but it all depends on the blinds, how many other short stacks there are, etc . . .

This is why big stacks can exploit the bubble by pushing around everyone who is blinding off towards the $.

What you state here also backs up (or is caused by) the $/Hour argument.

If you have sat for 6 hours to get to this point it is surely better to make it in to the prizes to make contribution to your bank roll (even if your hourly rate would have been greater playing a cash game). As you have already spent the hours it would be better to come out with +ve dollar to your buy in rather than going home with nothing.

Jason75 · #40 (**permalink**) 06-10-2006, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by G_The_Jester

What you state here also backs up (or is caused by) the $/Hour argument.

If you have sat for 6 hours to get to this point it is surely better to make it in to the prizes to make contribution to your bank roll (even if your hourly rate would have been greater playing a cash game). As you have already spent the hours it would be better to come out with +ve dollar to your buy in rather than going home with nothing.

Again, there's 2 schools of thought on this one. There's the "It's unlikely I'm going to make significant $ here, so I might as well blind away and get ITM"

Then there's the "I play to make the big score, not to make a couple of 50th place finishes that just barely pays me my entry fee back. Let's push this thing and either get back into contention for a big prize or bust out and start a new tourney".

I try and split the middle here. If it's very unlikely I'll make a significant finish (then again, even with a medium stack that's always unlikely, right?) and I'm really close to being ITM, I may decide to just get my entry fee back and blind ITM. There's also the significance of when you win a satellite (say to the WSOP main event) . . . so let's say you're a couple days in and doing not so well, but the $ is just around the corner. You're unlikely to make a better finish than the top 10% (which is a very small dollar amount and flat payout area of ITM), so you could go bust trying to win the thing, or you could put $12,500 in your pocket by blinding away to the $. If I spent $800 on satellites to win my seat, I just made a profit of $11,700, and got a free ride (usually including room) to the big one.