Phil's forward to Kill Phil talks a bit about this . . . . at one time he was experimenting with folding pair over pair (4.5:1 favorites) . . . but he's decided he has to get his chips in some time . . . .

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Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
Beavis68: You play poker.
Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

Early in an MTT, would a call with AK if my opponent showed me JTs an went all in?

I am a 2:3 favorite - yes I would call, not matter what buy-in it was.

On the bubble of a big MTT with a flat payout is this a +EV call for all your chips? And a chip stack at par? Probably not worth it. Math is tricky at this point.

I think what makes the math tricky is the fact that the reward is not proportionate to the amount of times you bet in this situation in tournaments.

The reward is skewed by the number of entrants and by the price of buy in.

If over your lifetime of poker you play fewer high stakes tournaments than low ones then can the same weight be given to the same call.

You could end up hitting your outs in all of the low stake tournaments and losing in all of the high stake ones. Surviving may have been a better decision in the high stakes tournaments as the reward of survival outweighs the reward of winning in the lower ones.

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http://gthejester.blogspot.com

A closed mind is like a closed book ... its just a piece of wood.

I dont agree with this at all, it doesn't matter if you only play one tournament. you want to make the moves that give you the best chance of making the most money (note I did not say "winning").

How can you base your performance on hourly rate in tournament play?

If you start from now and play for 10hrs a day for one month and win nothing, your hourly rate is nil, this shows you as a losing player. The next day you win 100K and suddenly your hourly rate goes up to over $300 per hour.

Edit: Is this me being dumb? Please explain hourly rate in terms of tournaments.

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http://gthejester.blogspot.com

A closed mind is like a closed book ... its just a piece of wood.

it depends on how many chips i have, if i have committed myself to the pot, the blinds and antes, the payout structure, how many players left, how the table has been playing, etc

completely situational

Hourly rate is a fairly debatable topic when it comes to large field MTTs. The point that Skylansky makes is that if you're going to bust out, you'd rather go out first (no money for 10 minutes) than on the bubble (make no money but put in 5 hours of play).

This was in response to a question about comparing the often juicy sideaction games during major touranments to doubling up and possibly winning the tourney. I believe Skylansky suggests that: 1) this is actually very difficult to calculate and 2) that theoretically, if you're going to take chances you'd rather do it early than on the bubble.

Once you're in the $, it gets much easier to calculate these things . . . .

Note that hourly rate is very applicable to SNGs . . . . .

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Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
Beavis68: You play poker.
Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

Thanks Jason ...

It is a very grey area though as to bust out early in a tournament you have no idea on what your hourly rate might have been had you stayed in it.

I do think though I am on the verge of a personal poker breakthrough (or is it break down?).

I am beginning to think now in terms of cash reward and chip reward in various stages of tournaments in response to the calling of this coin flip situation ... if you can bear with me I'd appreciate input and of my impending U turn. (figures are for ease of calculation)

1. Heads Up:

Hero is 2nd holding a $5,000 prize with 4000 chips.
Villain has $10,000 prize with 6000 chips. You are faced with an all in 50/50 call which if you win would expect to go on and win the tournament.

Mathematical expectation of Hero here is:

(.5)(5000) + (.5)(0) = 2500

Mathematical expectation of Villain here is:

(.5)(0) + (.5)(-5000) = -2500

Hero is correct to push villain is correct to fold

2. In the bubble:

Hero has prize of $1,000 just inside the bubble with 1000 chips faced with calling Villians all in push on the same 50/50
Villain has 800 chips outside the bubble

Mathematical expectation of Hero here is:

(.5)(0) + (.5)(-1000) = -500

Mathematical expectation of Villain here is:

(.5)(1000) + (.5)(0) = 500

Villain is correct to push Hero is correct to fold (unless the amount in chips won takes Hero into next prize fund level to give a positive expectation)

3. Early in tournament

You have to think in terms of chip equity rather than money as there is no loss or gain in dollars only chip equity. You should base you decision on how many chips you will need to get into dollar equity.

Nearly there or no?

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http://gthejester.blogspot.com

A closed mind is like a closed book ... its just a piece of wood.

Your cant count your money before you have it.

In your heads up example the chip EV of the vullaun might be close to 10,000. But you say its the full first place prize money implies that he CANT lose.

Say villain has a %80 chance to win with the stacks as they are (considering skill as well).

Villan current EV is (.8 * 10,0000) + (.2 * 5,000) = 9000
Heros current EV is (.2 * 10,000) + (.8 * 5,000) = 6000

Now assume your looking at a coin flip where the % of winning will flip should hero win

Villians EV (for calling on the flip) is (.5 * 10,000) + (.5 * 6000) = 8000
Heros EV (for calling on the flip is (.5 *9,000) + (.5 * 5,000) = 7000

The parts in bold are the EV that player would end at should hero win the flip.

So in this case, where the villian is a 4:1 favorite to win the event, he should fold if he knows its a coinflip decision, b/c calling so is actually a -$EV move.

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BB is t100
Preflop: Hero is UTG with :3d :5d,
Hero raises to t500

So this is basically now a winner take all for $5k. In a winner take all format (only 1st pays), chip equity = $equity. Thus a 50/50 decision is a breakeven decision for either player at very low blinds. Note that if the blinds are larger, it's a correct decision for either one to go all in or call an all in if they know it's a coinflip, because the odds they're offered are better than 1:1.

I don't understand how Hero is "inside the bubble" but Villian is "on the bubble". Either the whole tournament field is on the bubble or ITM. If you're saying that the first ITM payout is $1k and hero has 1K in chips while Villian has 800 chips, then it depends on a number of factors such as the blinds, stack positions, etc. For instance, if villian is across table from hero and the blinds are 200/400 and villian has 800 after posting the SB, villian is actually ahead of hero in terms of hero's blinding out and putting villian in the $.

This is only true if all players are equal in skill level. The higher your skill level against the average player in the field, then the more you should not take near break even situations unless you're being offered a huge overlay.

Important skill items to consider: 1) The tournament structure (how fast the blinds go up), 2) Your large M play (do you realize that top pair can have a negative value in early play against trapping foes?), 3) your skill in increasing your implied odds (how well you can extract chips from opponents when you've got them by the short & curlies)

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Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
Beavis68: You play poker.
Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.