6 Max turn play - Page 3

growlers · #21 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve-O

now lets do some assessing. doubtful someone hit a queen on this flop with that action, so what are they calling with? middle or possibly bottom pair is a reasonable option -AT, A3, KT, JT-, or maybe AJ for the cutoff since he flat called pre-flop.

You are telling me that the BB doesn't have a Q? He could have any q, any ten, any three - the second ten falling makes it LESS likely he has a Q.

You really think a BB holding say Q9 bets out or checkraises to tell you he has a Q? No, he probably check/calls - that is what most people do, not saying its right, but that is what most do.

What are they calling with? A Q, a 10, a 3, a OESD, a gutshot, AK, a small pocker pair hoping they will get lucky and turn a set, backdoor flush and straight draws. Just because two people called doesn't mean one had a 10.

I really think you guys are fearing the monsters in the closet and putting people on cards with inadequete information.

Pok 7's · #22 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by growlers

I really think you guys are fearing the monsters in the closet and putting people on cards with inadequete information.

You know I try to keep that in mind a lot when I'm playing, but I've had a lot of monsters leaping out and biting my head off lately

Steve-O · #23 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 05:57 PM

Quote:

You really think a BB holding say Q9 bets out or checkraises to tell you he has a Q? No, he probably check/calls - that is what most people do, not saying its right, but that is what most do

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You are telling me that the BB doesn't have a Q?

Emphatically yes. this is not full ring, in 6 max they bet out or check-raise top pair 90% of the time

here is the problem with aggression, it is misapplied. On the turn it is YOU who wants the free card not the other players. Poker is about 3 things -Cards, Position, and Information- you have 1 of those in this hand. You need the free card/cheap showdown more than your opponents do, because you are either way behind or slightly ahead. If you are substantially ahead here you aren't getting action.

Quote:

That said, when you think players will play anything, you don't keep betting and betting at an average pot with one pair and a paired board. Bad players don't increase your variance. Overaggression on the turn and river against bad players increase your variance.

Couldn't have said it any better

Betting that turn is either going to increase your win rate minimally or cause you a big loss

growlers · #24 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve-O

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On the turn it is YOU who wants the free card not the other players. Poker is about 3 things -Cards, Position, and Information- you have 1 of those in this hand. You need the free card/cheap showdown more than your opponents do, because you are either way behind or slightly ahead. If you are substantially ahead here you aren't getting action.

1) Well, we are going to have to agree to disagree. You don't need a free card because hardly any cards help your hand - the remaining ten doesn't help because you are assuming someone else has one, so your only outs are the two aces. You have two outs to improve over the guy with a ten.

2) You are getting action from anyone with a q or a flush draw or a openended straight draw, maybe even get action from a gutshot or a 3 if they are really weak.

If you are so sure of your read why don't you just bet out on the turn and fold to a raise? That save you one bet over check/calling both streets.

I am frankly shocked you guys would check this turn.

Steve-O · #25 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 07:47 PM

Quote:

1) Well, we are going to have to agree to disagree. You don't need a free card because hardly any cards help your hand - the remaining ten doesn't help because you are assuming someone else has one, so your only outs are the two aces. You have two outs to improve over the guy with a ten.

It's not really a free card, it is a cheap showdown.

Quote:

2) You are getting action from anyone with a q or a flush draw or a openended straight draw, maybe even get action from a gutshot or a 3 if they are really weak.

you are only getting action from a draw on the turn, otherwise you get: none or too much river action.

A Queen here is so unlikely I am disregarding it

Quote:

If you are so sure of your read why don't you just bet out on the turn and fold to a raise? That save you one bet over check/calling both streets.

Why would I bet the turn only to fold??? When I could simply check call to showdown for only another bet?????? This would be horrible poker. remember, I didn't say the guy HAS a ten, just that it is highly probable. I'm looking to induce a bet from the lesser hands you speak of that wouldn't always call a bet, as well as induce bluffs from missed draws at the same time limiting my losses when I'm smooshed.

I'm looking at this hand as a total package over the long haul, not as "he has this and thats that"

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growlers · #26 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve-O

you are only getting action from a draw on the turn, otherwise you get: none or too much river action.

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This is why I think we should bet the turn, you are only getting action from draws on the turn. They aren't calling a river unimproved.
If its gets checked around and the 2 of spades fell on the river (a total brick), and we bet out and both folded everybody would be screaming.

The bottom line is that you have a made hand, there are few hands that have you beat, there are multiple draws, and two other people in the hand and it is a raised pot. The objectives in any such situation should be the same.

Your overwhelming objective in any such situation should be to protect your hand as much as is possible (which is not very possible except a bet may get a straight draw or 3 out) and build a pot with the best hand until you have evidence you don't have the best hand.

I don't think there is enough info to assume someone has one of the two cards in the deck that kills you.

I am all in favor in some situations of getting to a cheap showdown - lets say you have A10 and an A flops, you lead out and are raised by an aggressive player - you aren't sure whether your kicker is good, then just check/call it down. But this hand I think is a poor situation to do that in on a draw rich board.

the alex · #27 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 08:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheAlex from page 1

KK-JJ would've raised/re-raised PF and the flop
TT was a possibility, but the ten on the turn kills that thought.
88-44 and 22 fold the flop.
33 takes advantage of low set and gets aggressive on the flop knowing it'll get action.
AK and AQ is very unlikely with your 2 Aces.
QX (except QT) will raise the flop

Steve-O · #28 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 08:14 PM

Quote:

I don't think there is enough info to assume someone has one of the two cards in the deck that kills you

This is where mathematics performs manslaughter on most peoples logic. yeah, from a true math perspective it is only 2/47 that he has a Ten. From a logic standpoint it is much much higher.

Too many people rely on numbers and disregard logic and reason. Yes you have a good hand but it is far from unbeatable. Even worse, you are betting into 2 opponents who called bets and raises already! Against 1 player, yes bet. 2, no way.

you have to worry about being slowplayed by the BB as well as already beaten by the button. Your info in this hand is horrid. Why not wait and see what the river brings and then see the action before committing yourself to this pot? Which is in effect what a bet does, you're not folding to a raise are you?

By betting you're opening up a Pandora's Box of possibilities. I'm all for aggression, look at how often I say take control of the betting, but there is a time and place to relinquish control. And often it wins you more money than aggression does while at the same time saving you a boatload of money to.

You've shown as much strength as you can in this hand up to the turn and it has scared noone, what does that tell you? Yes you could be up against calling stations with rags, but how do you know that. Give your opponents a little respect here and there and you'll win even more money.

Alex's sig is "I'd rather take a bad beat than be outkicked" along those lines, "I'd rather lose 1BB than get check-raised for 2"

All the signs on the wall in this hand point to trouble, it's time to slow down

Beavis68 · #29 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the alex

BPEEEH!!!! Wrong.

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Why are you telling him he is wrong?

He is talking about his own expirience.

I agree with you that players dont improve linearly with limits. but .05/.1 sure is full of donkneys like you won't see at .5/1 most of the time.

Why is it more likely that this guy will have a ten in his hand than a Q?

Having two donkeys in a .5/1 six max game call you on the flop means it is time to slow down?

Makes no sense.

Phyto is right on.

Bet the turn, check call the river, and it is not even close

growlers · #30 (**permalink**) 06-06-2006, 08:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve-O

This is where mathematics performs manslaughter on most peoples logic. yeah, from a true math perspective it is only 2/47 that he has a Ten. From a logic standpoint it is much much higher.

I'm still going to agree to disagree, but I'm clearly not some poker noob that thinks that there is truly a 2/47 chance that one of them has a 10. Don't patronize me - I was simply stating that there are not many hands you are behind, not that we are somehow mathmatically ahead becuase there are only 2/47 tens left.

I obviously think there is a greater than a 2/47 chance someone has a 10, the only difference in our lines on this hand is that I clearly think that there is greater chance they called the flop with a q, a 3, or a draw than you seem to. That's fair that you think that, it is certainly not an unreasonable opinion, I still think it is a mistake. So we just should move on.

This really is one of those hands I think two reasonable poker players can disagree on.