Been thinking again...I know it's dangerous for me to do that. Anyway I'm wondering if I'm making dumb payoffs on the river more than I should, and I find this situation comes up fairly often. For this example let's also assume were HU going into the turn, or the river.
Excluding PF action for the moment but we're looking at a bard that flops 2 of the same suit we're holding something like TPTK, TPGK, or overpair JJ-KK. We're getting check called or just called with our bets/raises...Turn blank card, we're just called again. River brings 3 of the same suit, fairly obvious straight, or even just an A, someone either leads out or check raises us. I tend to value bet even when a scare card hits, but when I'm check raised in that instance is it correct to fold? (I figure it's a hell of a bluff or the river helped him), but am I just wasting money here, especially to a check raise?
Now once in a rare while someone attempts a bluff here by leading out and I'll generally call, however I also find I'm paying off check raises quite a bit also. Am I just wasting money in these situations? Now granted occasionally you'll get your occasional maniac or bluff attempts but is it worth trying to pick these bluffs off, even against somewhat "normal" players making an occasional bluff?
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05-23-2006 #1
Draws, overcards, and river payoffs
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05-23-2006 #2Fish Food
- Join Date
- May 2006
- Posts
- 17
I could help a LITTLE bit better if you woulda gave the pot and the bets and the raises and crap but , from what you gave i honestly would be really freaking STRESSED on a play like that (lol). I don't know what i would do. Depends on how much he raised and what kind of odds your getting. Thats all i can say.
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05-23-2006 #3
Talking strictly LHE here sorry not NL, nothing fancy as far as pot size, for the sake of arguement we'll call it "average" size. Let's say going into the river there's 5-7 BB in the pot before the river card hits.
Last edited by Pok 7's; 05-23-2006 at 12:00 PM.
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05-23-2006 #4
Pok, See my "When to fold on River" (or smething like that) thread from a few days ago. This is basically the same question. And I think its an important one that can make the difference of a few BB/100.
I think the basic answer is unless you are absolutely certain, you need to call one more bet in a large pot. My difficulty is when to call the pot large? Is 5-1 large? 6-1? I am sure 10-1 is........don't know.
Put it this way....with each extra bet thats in the pot, you need to be that much more certain of your read before you fold.
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05-23-2006 #5
I would almost have to say you are 50-50 to win the hand. The reason I say that is that you have not seen any overt aggression from him until the river card hits. So until he check raises, you most likely have the best hand. Then when he CR you, you have to ask yourself, does he have me beat. If he is just calling you down, then he had to be drawing, because there is obviously no fold equity in calling.
Depending on the texture of the board, the stacks and limits your playing, and any previous reads you have on him, in the end I think it is still going to come down to a judgement call. Have you seen him bet for value before? Have you seen him chasing draws. Is he a 'fancy' enough AND smart enough player to know that you are paying enough attention that calling you down and bluffing the river will make you fold?
Honestly though, with 5-7 bb in the pot already, your bet makes it 6-8 bb, then his raise makes it 7-9, you only have to call 1 to win 7 (min.) at that point. That means you have to win that pot 15% (14.285... to be more accurate) of the time to make it profitable to call. Considering that raising a check on the river will create minor amounts of fold equity when the river card is showing (after all he has called you down so far) I probably call this bet. I may be wrong, and if I am someone please correct me, I will probably make this call 95% of the time.
Edit: Anteye got there first.
As for when is a pot large, I say any pot that makes it to the river with betting on each street is going to be a large pot. In LHE, one bet and on call at each street (in other words the SB completes and the BB checks) you have 2sb PF, 4sb Flop, 4 bb turn, and 6 bb river. I am probably going to call any single bet on the river simply because at worst, I only need to win 20% (5:1 if I am the BB and I am calling the SB bet) of the time, and wether I am raising or calling, I have to think I am better than that to win it. Obviously once you get multiple players going, the dynamics change, I am just talking HU.Last edited by Nimvin; 05-23-2006 at 12:40 PM.
Nimvin
"I bet how much?!"
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05-23-2006 #6
Pok,
Go buy Middle Limit Hold'em by Ciaffone. It has hundreds of hand examples with full discussion that concentrate on different aspects of play.
Alot of your recent threads are interesting discussions, but are much easier to discuss given hand examples instead of in a general way. I think you'll really enjoy the book and learn alot from it.
Originally Posted by Beavis68
Originally Posted by backdoor
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05-23-2006 #7Poker Hustler
- Join Date
- Aug 2005
- Posts
- 1,161
another good book is "how good is your limit hold'em", don't buy it though if you are gonna play any of the sites I do.
Seriously it gave me several wake up calls, and woke me up from the "weak ass" state I was in. I found the book alot more useful than SSHE or HPFAP.
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05-23-2006 #8
Okay I'll check em out...I need some now books anyway.
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05-23-2006 #9
good one! I just did the first 12 hands on the plane friday. I usually scored about 80, had one 95 and one around 70. How were your scores?
Originally Posted by Phytopath
I bought the pot limit HE and omaha one today. I like the format alot.
Originally Posted by Beavis68
Originally Posted by backdoor
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05-23-2006 #10
You guys say they are good??
How good?
Post up a hand a how it scored, if possible.....Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.
Luck is a Residue of Design.
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