Live game in AC. Bunch of loose passives. Nobody tricky. $3-6. SB villian is a very straightforward player, doesn't know alot of theory or "moves", just plays his hand.

Dealt to me on button.

Several limpers, I limp.

Flop:

SB leads out, several folds, CO calls, I raise, SB calls, CO folds.

Turn:

SB checks, I check (I choose to take my free card).

River:

SB checks, I ????????

I won't say what I did yet but I will tell you that it could be argued that I screwed it up.

Now an exercise:

How would this be different if I had the same cards and the exact same turn and river but the flop was:




The NL people might think that these situations are not worth fighting over ("I mean it's one stinking bet - not even a 6th of the pot!") but if you miss two river value bets an hour (and some people miss WAY more than that) it can be the difference between being a winning player and break even player in a live 3-6 or 4-8 game where most pots are raked $4-5 including a jackpot drop. Getting these situations right is critical in the long term. I'm a decent player and I'm STILL missing value bets!

Nothing wrong with taking the free card although it does expose you're on a draw to the mentally aware. After taking the free card you're hooped as far as bluffing the pot on the river imo. I don't see any thing here that resembles a value bet.
I figure your villian has Q-little and if he is passive, he's just as likely going to call this down at showdown. Your only chance at bluffing this pot was checked thru on the turn!! Check it down,
you're donw with this puppy.
As for the flop being I don't see much difference except the turn makes a str8 possible. If you checked the turn thru and the SB still checked the river, he doesn't have a str8 so is probably still playing Q-little.

I'll bill you at the end of the month

I don't think this is as straightforward as you guys do. I will admit that the main purpose of this was for Pok7 because he was asking for an example of a marginal value bet on the river, I probably should have just added to that thread.

I hinted at this before, but the key thing is the type of player I said he is. If he has something he bets. If he doesn't he checks. He thinks checkraising is for "them youngin's" and evil mean people. I've had old people rack up and leave when I checkraised them in a hand.

When he bets out in the SB, this type of players bets because they have a piece of it. He is not betting his draw. People like this don't bet draws. They call until they hit their draw then they bet.

He has a Q, a 4, or a 2 almost every time here. He is a loose passive player, he could have anything from 44 to AQ to 54 to 23. He would have bet the turn with a set or two pair. So you can rule those out. He maybeeeeee has a pocket pair like 66 but he would probably check that on the flop with the Q out there.

He would have bet the river if he improved after I checked the turn. He therefore doesn't have a 2. After I checked the turn behind him and he doesn't bet the river, he it makes it less likely he has a Q than a 4 because he would probably bet top pair on the river. The chance of me getting raised by this guy is nil even if he had AQ.

The reason I posted this hand is that Pok7 was looking for a truly marginal river value bet. I would argue that this guy has a Q or a 4, and because he didn't bet the river he more likely has a 4 than a Q. I would also argue that this player would call with any 4. Therefore I would argue it is +EV to bet. This might be a 49% vs 51% hand but I think a bet is in order here.

I checked and asked him "Q or 4". He turned over K4 and I took the pot.

You might say "Well, you posted this because he happened to have a hand you beat and no one plays this straightforwardly". "People won't call with K4 here".

I am here to tell you that in live play at a 3-6 table in the middle of the afternoon half the table plays EXACTLY this way. They are retirees passing the time. Some of these guys will call you with A high "to keep you honest."
They in fact say that as they toss their chips in. You have to look at it from their perspective - they can see the busted flush just as well as you can and will call with anything. I've been called by 10 high before by a player that KNEW all he had was 10 high because he thought I had a baby flush draw.

This particular hand is VERY marginal but these value bets come up several times an hour and it is important to bet them. They add up to a lot of bets over the course of the year.

I am NOT "bluffing" with a river bet here. I am betting because the chance of me getting raised is ZERO and the chance of me winning the hand if he calls is probably 60% or so. +EV, it really is a value bet.

Good post Growlers personally I would've checked the river just because I'm assuming he's staying in with a piece of the flop and I can't imagine my 2's being good here.

As for the second example...I also don't see what makes it different other then the straight draw...what am I missing

Originally Posted by tightagressive

bet the turn in the 1st hand

I felt 80% certain the guy had a Q. I took the free card while I was quite sure I was behind and had no fold equity against this guy. I would do this every time in this situation and don't regret it at all.

Only when he checked the river when no flush card hit did I think there was a good chance he had a 4. I had been playing with this guy for 3 hours and felt he would have bet a Q on the river after a turn check.

In live games reads are very important especially against some old retiree passive player. They might as well hold their cards up on their forehead.

Online I would have bet this turn as I would not be nearly as sure of any read on what he had. Online people are much tighter / trickier / aggressive than 90% of the live 4-8 games I play.

I love this forum but the difference between live play and online is pretty enormous. Threads like this make me realize this. You can make conclusions about a range for people online but give me an hour at a table and I can call exact hands pretty often just based on preflop and flop actions for many players.

Originally Posted by Pok 7's

Good post Growlers personally I would've checked the river just because I'm assuming he's staying in with a piece of the flop and I can't imagine my 2's being good here.

As for the second example...I also don't see what makes it different other then the straight draw...what am I missing

In the second hand you have bottom pair and since my read was that he had a piece of the flop you are more often beat here. In my first hand I had second pair top kicker on the flop and I ruled out a 2 in his hand so there is a pretty good chance my hand is good at showdown.

The straight draw has nothing to do with it because 75 year old retirees do not bet out of the small blind into 5 or 6 players with a straight draw. Again, it is hard to explain but live poker is soooo much different than online.

It could be argued by reasonable people whether to bet here on the river in the first hand (that's why I posted the hand), but if you are good 51% of the time it is the right play to bet. That's the whole idea of a value bet in limit. Repeated edges over time. I am willing to bet a 51% to 49% edge every time, the hard part is identifying these small edges on the river and having the balls to bet with them.

I posted this because as soon as I checked the river I immediately regretted it and thought of all those threads of yours last week about marginal river value bets.