easy push.

I don't mind the push here . . . it all depends on how the table is playing.

If it's tight, I'd really prefer if we could push after the SB and CO have acted (they've got a lot of chips and can afford the call . . . anyone else needs a hand). If it's tight enough, we could likely do this with any 2 cards once these folks are out of the way . . . someone needs a real hand to call.

If it's loose PF, I might just raise to 4k and do a stop and go (and I'd bust out here too).

If it's really loose, I might wait until I have a high card hand (KT+, A8+) or pair 55+.

Just remember you don't make final tables all that often in fields this big. . . and 1-3 finishes are infrequent. But the occasional big finish pays it all off in the long run.

well.... Only problem is that a push with TJ will always be dog when somebody call.

On the other side you wont be a huge one in most cases.

Fold equity probably make this play +EV, but I think I would have wait for a better hand or position. Even with an M of 6.5.

Unless SB and CO were extreamly tight, I fold this hand.

KJ

correct me if im wrong about any assumptions i make. imo run this in sng pwr tools (i wanna try out the chip ev mode that looks at your ev in mtt's )


im going to assume in order for you to even consider this play, the table had to be playing pretty tight. as in everyones call range was about 66+, ATs+, and AJo+ imo, this is standard in a low buyin sng or mtt, people will easaily call with these hands. just for good measure ill put 2 looser players in that will call with a few more hands. more aces, KQ, and like 4's. ok, here we go
oh and this is for partys blind structure, so there is a 50 chip ante being accounted for. doesnt make that much of a diff but the #'s will be off a bit.


well using the hands i ran it with, you wont be called 60.8% of the time.
and we all know that even once you are called, usually you have a decent chance to win. and since you are allready in the money (18th pays or something, right?) your tournament ev will go up, because winning the hand has the added value of increasing your pay. i didnt factor the tournament ev though, there isnt an mtt mode, just the chip mode.

your ev on this push is +T639
approx...

this probably isnt a push i make though, unless the table had all been VERY tight. you can wait one more round around the table for an ace, higher face cards, or pp, cant you?
at this point the push seems very borderline. its almost borderline in sng pwr tools and thats with extra dead money in the pot