Three outcomes to the push

a) he folds

b) he calls you win

c) he calls you lose


a) gives you 1200 chips extra

b) gives you 2799 extra

c) loses you 2199


a) is the most likely

I'd say c) is more likely than b) as even V any 2 cards you are not a huge favourite but you could easily be way behind or dominated.

a) and b) aren't going to radically improve your chance of cashing well, while b) is going to really hurt you.

I'd check and see a flop and go from there.

looks pretty standard to me.

I would bet if you posted this in the SNG forum on 2+2 people would say to push regardless of your hand unless the player was tight and wouldn't complete with out some kind of hand.

If he is a typical weak limper you probably pick up the pot 3 or 4 times for every time you get called.

and when you do get called you still have a 40% or more chance to bust him.

if he completes with any two card, and only play any broadway, any ace, any pair you pick up the pot 3 out of 4 times uncontested, and bust him 40% of that time when he does call.

.75*(1200)+.25(.4*(2800)-.6(1600))

=900+.25(1120-960) =900 + 40=940

Looks like a great play to me.

since this guy is short, these numbers may be off - it is player depenendant, but unless he is tight with completion (highly likely to trap), I think this is a good move.

Originally Posted by Irexes

c) loses you 2199

Actually, this is not really correct, you already have 600 in the pot.

it only costs you 1600.

You are getting really good value for an all in here even if you are sure he would call. your all in value is 2800:1600 or 1.75:1

That is more than enough vs any range of hands you can put him on.

Yup on the cost of the call, but I wouldn't necessarily apply the pot odds to this call.

Rather I think about the implied odds of cashing based on each outcome. If it was a straight value proposition then it may well be a call, but in the context of a tourney I hate this kind of situation with A rag.

And I think there's a lot more people calling with strength here than is being given credit.

You're cruising along in good shape, why risk a big chunk of stack in a situation not of your choosing?

Of course I'm a passive-aggressive tourney player so I'm not criticising the push, just not for me (unless I've a very good read on the other guy).

with his stack size i dont like the push. however if he has say 4000, its a great play. this play is also very read depending. how has the limping sb reacted to a raise before? has he called? raised? has he tried to trap you before?

pushing preflop like this is all about knowing the size of your stack, size of your opponents stack, the blinds, and the likleyness he will call (his "call range")

in this spot, stack is 9000 and bb is 600. pot isnt worth it to risk this play here. however, i wouldnt mind a raise, because you have an ace (the limping small blind represents much less than an ace) and you have position after the flop.