Villain was SLPP. WSD about 45%. VPIP of 21%. I figured I could raise any two on him and if he called figure it out from there.



Poker Stars
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter





Pre-flop: (9 players) Antneye is SB with
7 folds, Antneye raises, BB calls (2.6:1).

1st Question: Was it worth the attempt?

Flop: (3.2SB, 2 players)
Antneye bets, BB raises, Antneye 3-bets, BB calls (8.2:1).

Nice Flop: Looking good so far right?

Turn: (4.6BB, 2 players)
Antneye bets, BB raises, Antneye calls (7.6:1).

This turn scared me, but I bet out anyway. Raised....uh oh. Can I lay this down at this point?

River: (8.6BB, 2 players)
Antneye checks, BB bets, Antneye calls (9.6:1).

Horrible call right? I mean the 7 masked my 5's.......9.6:1 odds. Do I win more often than that here?


Results:
Final pot: 10.6BB
BB showed 8c Ad
Antneye mucks 5s 9h


OK. These things happen. But how many bets should I have been able to save here?

A) All. You shouldn't have attempted steal
B) 2. Fold the turn raise
C) 1. Fold River
D) Who cares. You suck at poker

All in Pre flop

no... sorry i dont know much about limit he

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I don't know much about limit either, but what a great way to make a post.

Rep points for you Ant

1

Well I'm still learning slowly not to attempt too many steals against semi loose and loose players and/or calling stations. (key words learning and slowly )

Personally I don't like raising out of the SB with junk especially if he's going to the SD almost 50% of the time. I'm out of position the whole hand and I get the impression they'll chase any A all the way right off the bat.

But I'm doing the same thing on the flop, with him just calling a 3 bet I'd guess he's on some kind of draw, unless he's slowplaying a set. I think we're ahead and he's hoping for an A still and he's just bluff/semi bluffing.

Turn is a lousy card, if he happens to have an 8 we're in trouble, although I doubt I'm laying this down. Honestly I've had instances where I'll 3 bet at times like this which I'm sure is a bad trait. But he raised my flop bet and just called a 3 bet, so I try to see if he caps or just calls again. If he caps I'm usually check folding the river unless I make a boat.

My thoughts are passive players generally don't cap when the bets double unless they have a fairly big hand like a set or better. If he dosen't have the straight here... it can appear like I'm representing it, or at least not afraid of it if he's still just chasing overcards. So I guess it costs me the same bets anyway if I check/fold the river or play it the same as you did. Sometimes especially against passive players it can lead to a checked down showdown at times. If he's still not afraid to bet the river after that I have to figure he's not afraid of alot of the possible hands someone can be representing.

Otherwise honestly I'm playing this hand the same with the exception of the PF raise. And my only other possible route is the turn play I mentioned.....which may be a horrible idea.

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Probably one, but once you are in the hand then 3

I'd say one. I like to have at least SOMETHING when I try to steal and 9-high doesn't qualify for me (unless maybe it was suited...).

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I'm CDO. It's like OCD, but everying is in order just like it should be.

Thanks Rex........I'm a reputation point whore

Pok....good analysis...as always.

GIR: I agree 5 9 is not much. My thinking (right or wrong) was that he fols 79% of his hands PF. If he comes along for the ride he obviously has something, and I can evaluate my spot after the flop. I was also assuming that if he comes, he's coming with high cards and I hit the flops that he misses.

I was partially correct. I hit the flop big time, but it was all downhill from there.

59 is a big stretch to steal with, even for me. His VPIP shows he can be selective, but selective also means he may have heard about blind stealing. Doesn't mean he knows how to play it, just that he's heard of it and may think he sees one. So in my head, I'm adding 50%-100% of his VPIP there, to weigh the chances of a steal working (This is an idea I have recently came up with, adding half-all of his VPIP to his current VPIP to give myself an idea of how likely he will lay this down, weighed vs the strength of my hand). Also I'm looking at his WSD, thats high. That means almost half the time we're seeing a showdown, and with 95o, thats bad.

I would continue to steal against this guy, but I think I would be a little more selctive in my hands.

Rest of the hand looks spot on.

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