A9 tourney hand. (Same final table as previous QJ thread)

[the alex]

Same tournament as thread: http://pokerforums.org/showthread.php?t=11595 where the payouts can be found as well within the thread.

Final table.

The Alex is UTG CO with 16k. In blinds and on button, I've been aggressive.

UTG+1 (SBV from last hand) is damn near done (solid, player, seeing flops with position, pretty aggressive)

Vecky is on the button (BBV from the QJ hand.) has about the same 13-14k. He's been mixing it up a lot more. He's just taken someone holding sevens out with a small PF all in call while Vecky was holding AJ. The AJ was the only hand he's shown all final table and he's more than doubled his stack.

CL is two to my left with 18-19k (very rough guess-timate)

BB is one of the biggest, most boring rocks I've ever seen, but has a bit less than10k.

Little action on table for the last hour outside of people fallling out with desperation PF all ins. The best hand I've seen has been AQ and everyone folded to me in the BB.
225/450 ante 75

I'm dealt:

I raise to 1200. Fold. Vecky called. Blinds fold.

Flop (pot: T3450): 9-7-7 rbw (7 of clubs)

I bet 2000. Vecky counts and calls. I picked up next to nothing on him. I'm thinking low pair. If he does have big cards and puts me on shit, he would call here to pick me off on the turn.

Turn (pot: T7450):

I ____________?

Have at it, peeps.

[tightagressive]

if he will fold to a push a fair share of the time (say, 10%) a push is the right play. if hes a super rock and wouldnt call the flop without a solid hand, try to take a free card. if you have fold equity, push, because you have 14 outs and you miiight have the best hand.

[dopemope223]

i think your ahead in the hand to maybe a smaller pair 66's or 55's... I think your raise pf outta position with this hand has put you in a shitty situation. i'm thinking pf even a rock would raise jj and up, i'm assuming, 10,10 would be a bad scenario for you also, but he more likely woulda reraised with that on the flop. Alright well i feel the right play in this situation is to push at sum point in the hand, but i'd put in a check here. One you've already decided to push so if he decides to make a "play" on the turn you'll get more money in the pot and may even pot commit him for all his chips if he has a smaller pair. Number two he may check behind you giving you a free card to hit your flush. Considering your read of a rock, i guess he'd check after you.. allowing you to make a value bet on the river.. Going with our original read any card over ten would be harmless.
if you ran into 77, or 99 then hes going to trap you pretty good in this situation.
________
Vaporizer-info

[growlers]

I think that unlike the last hand, all of your money is going in the center here whether you are doing the pushing or calling. The pot is about as big already as what you have left in your stack, and you are likely ahead (~70%?), and have many outs if you aren't. I think I push here. Note you have a good chance of getting called whether you are ahead or not as it will present him with great pot odds, I don't think you have much fold equity in this hand either secondary to the size of the pot, but you are in a much better spot than the first hand and I'm not sure you want that fold equity.
Part of me says to checkraise, but if you give a free card and a nonclub K or J falls I would vomit. But as many here know I am not primarily a NL player so I'll be interested in this discussion. Bottom line is that I think you are commtted to this pot, but I'm not sure best way to get the chips out there.

edit: ignore the above since I posted this before the fixing of the pot size. That invalidates everything I said. I'll sit out now....

[ypsieast]

Clarification please:
5 players left. 5x75 ante + 225sb + 450bb = 1050
PF: You raise to 1200 + 1 caller = 2400 + 1050 = Pot $3450 (you put 3900)
Flop: you bet 2000 + call = 4000 + 3450 = Pot 7450 (you put 12900)

Is the pot 7450 or 12900? Thanks.

[dopemope223]

^that had me a little confused too..
________
Cleanest Vaporizer

[the alex]

1.) Sorry about that. I jotted down a lot of hands in a steno pad. There was another hand on the opposite side of the same page and in the process of mindless copying, I got a bit of eye salad. I made the correction.

2.) BBV was a nickname for the guy on the button, not the guy in the BB. I thought that this would save confusion as I was associating this to the previous hand that I posted, so this thread wouldn't live in a vacuum. I just put my real nickname for him in the post.

3.) I still have mod controls. Hmm.

[Method]

How is this hand a better spot than the QJ hand?

You had position with TP + FD + gutshot SD + 1 overcard with 2 cards to come, twice the amount of chips your opponent had, and in the event you were behind you had at worst a 40% chance to improve, and if you lost the hand you still had over 20 BBs.

Here, you are out of position with MP + FD + 1 overcard with 1 card to come, your opponent is a competitive stack, and in the event you are behind you have at best a 35% to improve, and if you lose the hand you'll be down to about 5 BBs.

The only good thing about this hand in comparison is that you actually have some fold equity.

[tightagressive]

How is this hand a better spot than the QJ hand?

your hand has a good chance of being best now. you have top pair. there are few hands that the rock would have to beat you. and on those hands, you have plenty of outs. some hands he calls you with and you are a favorite.

in the QJ hand, you have a draw and IMO the villian in that hand is representing a strong hand. you will have to draw out, and you have no fold equity.

[ypsieast]

Hard to believe he has a 7 or 99. Overpair is also unlikely (maybe TT or JJ) and isn't much more threatening than Qx. I'm only really worried about him having a Q (AQ, KQ, QJ or QT).

Pot is 7.5k
You still have 13k and Vecky has around 10k.
Unless he has AQ, there is serious fold equity here.

I would bet 5k for the following reasons.
1) At 2/3 pot size, its enough to signal that you aren't slowing down to his call on the flop
2) Betting 5k leaves you with 8k - just enough to still contend. You can still get away if he comes over the top and you don't want to draw for your tourney life. There is a chance Vecky would mistake you as being pot committed.
5) Calling 5k would leave Vecky with 5k in chips staring at a 17k pot. He would likely be making a push/fold decision here (instead of calling the 5k). Is he able to push here with anything worse than AQ? I think he only pushes with AQ.

I believe a 5k bet on the turn shows strength, maximizes folding equity and if he pushes, you have enough chips to fold and barely odds to call. Hopefully he folds.