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  1. #1
    change my title babo bonchkid's Avatar
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    Default Follow Up: Folding the nuts.

    Ok, so obviously there are many times when its proper to fold the current nuts in PLOmaha and often PLO8.
    How about Hold-Em? I can only think of one:
    3 people left in a large tourney
    Blinds 200/400
    A 15k
    B 12k
    C 100(after posting)
    If A pushes and B calls, its correct for C to fold AA here.
    There are a few variations of AA before the flop.
    “There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

  2. #2
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    Default

    Why is it correct for C to fold? No gaurantee that B will get knocked out, and if B wins, A will still have a decent stack. If A and B had identical stacks, and there was a large difference is prize money from 2nd to 3rd, I can see it, but I don't get it here. Whether you fold or call you are still gambling.

    Besides if this is correct, it is correct because of tournament structure, not hand odds, so it is not really the same thing.

  3. #3
    change my title babo bonchkid's Avatar
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    Default

    It's absoultely correct for C to fold here. Think about it. I realize what you are saying about hand odds and I agree. This one is sorta cheesey.
    “There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

  4. #4
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    Default

    I have thought about it, please share your wisdom with me.

  5. #5
    PokerForums God the alex's Avatar
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    I see what you're saying, Bonch, but this is an extreme situation, where I say that C calls.

    Against two people, player C is about a coin flip to win half if he has no lo draw. In the worst case scenario, A scoops, and the whole side pot is won by B. The chip stacks at the end of the hand are:

    A: 18K
    B: 36K
    C: 85K

    Or B scoops and you're heads up:

    A: 45K
    C: 85K

    Not so bad in either case considering that half of the time you'll scoop if there's no lo or win 1/2 the pot with the hi.
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  6. #6
    Check Raiser
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    I've gotta agree with beav -- why is it "absolutely correct" for C to fold here? I'd be inclined to say fold if the problem were the other way around with the 12K stack going all-in and then being called by the 15K stack. As written, however, player A could be on anything from a flat out "I'm bored so lets grab some blinds" steal attempt to a low/mid pair or AK. What you DO know though, is that player B's hand is likely better than A's. Why do I say this? Because B just voluntarily stuck his tournament life on the line while you're scraping felt -- why would B do that UNLESS they've got a premium hand and they feel that THIS is the chance to get a commanding advantage for the tournament?

    So now the question becomes does the chance of moving up in prize money from B getting knocked off compensate for folding in a situation where you are almost assuredly dominating both players collectively? If you fold here, you're running up a white flag...either B loses or you HAVE to win your next hand with random cards to stay alive. Even if you clear that hurdle, you'll have to do the exact same thing two hands later with another randomly dealt hand or you'll be blinded out again.

    On the flipside, you can emerge from this with 1,500 in chips by flipping in your last black chip. If you win, you've just bought yourself about six hands of discretion and a new life while watching either B get knocked out or A get crippled down to just double your stack size.

    Fight on your feet or die like a dog -- your odds of winning against both players with AA is equal to or better than the odds of A knocking off B based on the betting, so push and pray.
    Last edited by Shade; 12-18-2004 at 03:18 PM.
    :cool:

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  7. #7
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    well i think the only way that someones gonna move it in and get called is if either they have a pcoket pair, which you have dominated, or a k, which you also have domiated. you're up against two players but you're still a HUGE favorite to win the pot so folding here is somewhat to very retarted. in fact you're still a 70 percent favorite to win teh pot
    Last edited by negranu333; 12-18-2004 at 03:31 PM.

  8. #8
    Poker Professional Announced Tilt's Avatar
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    Default

    Let's try these hands:

    Holdem Hi: 1370754 enumerated boards
    cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
    Ad Kh 75421 5.50 1279357 93.33 15976 1.17 0.060
    Qs Qc 248836 18.15 1116752 81.47 5166 0.38 0.183
    As Ac 1030521 75.18 324257 23.66 15976 1.17 0.757

    A pushes with AK. Player B must have a good hand in order to call. Pretty much any good hand he has, you have dominated.

    I think that if B doubles up, A still has a greater chip size than you. I think that a call here is in order. Chances are you will come in third anyway if you fold, so why not try and triple up. You are going to get blinded away within the next two hands. Tripling up gives you a better chance to survive the blinds, because if you double up twice in a row, you will have a chance to avoid being all-in with the blinds.

  9. #9
    Fish Mrwaffles's Avatar
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    i think you kind have to call. You definatly have the best hand, at least pre flop and if you fold you wont even have the small blind left. best scenario is for you to win the side pot, tripling up, and for A to knock B out. you never know what will happen after that, you could end up winning. Theres no chance to win if you fold

  10. #10
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    Ok, I guess the only way you could maybe justify a fold is if you think player B would only call with AA, since C is so close to busting out.

    Still, not sure the math justifies it, because player A will have you way out chipped, you gain nothing by folding.

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