Well, we don't know the prize structure, so it is hard for us to calculate.

Doesn't really matter, lets use the PS 1/4 million guaranteed

22-13-8.5

__________________
“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

Heres Why you call.

Nexthand you are all-in, regardless of waht you have. You are a huge favorite here.

No brainer call.

Even if there is no payout for 3rd, you still call.

You have 2 hands left. This one and the next. You now have the best hand possible. Rounding off, you are 3-1ish to win this hand. If you fold, and hope the other busts out, you are even money to move up, HE eithers wins or he doesnt.

Folding AA here is ludicrous. Especially vs 2 players.

I know you are supposed to give up small edges in EV for greater long term EV. But this is not a small edge. This is a monster edge. Folding this is an Error. Pot Odds alone demand you call. You are getting 12-1 on your call.

Folding is wrong.

__________________

If you don't understand I'll find Sklansky's explanation. Its much better.
Here's why you fold.
Lets say you are 70% to win vs 2 players. If you win 70% of the time you will still only have around 1k chips the other stack(s) will be much higher than yours and you still have virtually no shot at second. The 30% time you lose you are gone.
If you fold.
You have a flat 50% chance at second place money.
If you call you have a .3(50)% chance at second place money(depending who wins side pot)

If you call and win remember you still have a VERY small chance to win first. Its almost non-existant.

FOLDING will make you 2nd place much more often, which is really all you can expect ehre.

__________________
“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

In a tournament, once you make the money pot odds go out the window. Cash prize expected value is all that matters. If someone converts what I said to $EV you will realize why its correct.

__________________
“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

You statement is not true concerning pot odds (although pot odds do not rule - but they never do completely in tournaments), and the math involves assumptions that may or may not be true, so why don't you share your assumptions with us?

The poitn is that it will click for someone and they will explain it and everyoen will understand it better.

__________________
“There's no sense in being precise when you don't even know what you're talking about.” - John von Neumann

what he's saying is that yes, you're a favorite to win the pot but it's still very unlikely you'll turn that pot into much of anything. if they're gonna battle, let em have at it

ok, but so what, it is not better than 3:2 that the 12k stack busts, and possibly much worse. If the 12k stack doesnt bust you will bet against a 24k stack and a 2k stack with 100 left.

The money difference is barely 3:2, so it is a call, no question.

Sorry bonch, but I have to continue to respectfully disagree. It seems to me you're oversimplifying on a number of levels -- I'll try to explain.

I don't see how you can assert that you still have virtually no shot at second if you call here. So 30 percent of the time I place third because either A or B takes me down. Here's the OTHER 70 percent of the time.

If you win and B beats A for the sidepot, then the chip count is 3,000 for A, 22,600 for B and 1,500 for you. To say you have virtually no shot at second with this chip count is a gross misrepresentation when the blinds are 200/400 and A is forced to post the BB.

If A beats B in the sidepot, then you're at 25,600-1,500 and already in second place. Compare this to your fold when my position is 27,000-100 and I"m forced to play my next hand all-in regardless of cards.

Your 50 percent figure is too rosy and neglects the awareness that you, as player C, have by knowing where two of the aces in the deck are. Put B on a high pair -- you simply don't put your tournament life at risk with a player on life support in this situation unless you have one. What's A likely to have...a pair also? A-something? Either way, B is going to be in a dominating position. You're not going to get second 50 percent of the time by laying down here. I realize I"m taking some liberties in reading into what A and B are holding, but based on the betting, I'd say I've got a fairly logical case here to think B dominates A's holding, whatever it might be. The fact that I know I"m holding two aces helps me to further adjust the scenarion in B's favor. Banking on a 50 percent chance of B losing is giving A way too much credit based on what you can infer from the scenario.

Again, I think this is a mis-representation of C's actual chance of winning. If you get heads-up after the listed hand, the chip count is 25,600-1,500. That's three doubled up hands away from relative chip equality. That's not great, but it hardly falls into the realm of non-existance in heads up play.

Compare this to the situation you find yourself in if you fold. 27,000-100. You're now EIGHT doubled up hands away from relative chip equality, and the first two of those will be mandatory plays of a random dealt cards.

Three double-ups isn't uncommon...eight I would argue is practically unheard of.

[/quote]FOLDING will make you 2nd place much more often, which is really all you can expect ehre.[/quote]

Two observations -- 1. you overestimate the frequency with which the fold gets you second place, and hopefully the above analysis explains why I feel this to be the case, 2. Your expectations are too low here. With AA on this hand, you have a chance to triple up and that puts you back in the game with a fighting chance. That's far better than you get with the fold. Obviously some of the time you triple up you're going to wind up third anyhow, but I don't think you can say it'll happen frequently enough to justify raising the white flag and folding your last best chance to fight for first place in this tournament.

__________________
:cool:

To be successful in business, surround yourself with professionals. To be successful in poker, surround yourself with idiots.