OK I am playing $200 NL Hold 'Em. This hand came up and I would be intersted for some discussion of my play at each stage.

I have played with villain several times and he is regular player. I have seen him make some debatable calls of preflop raises with hands like A8s or AJo, but he's not a total fish. Depending on how observant he is I usually only make raises this big with AA/KK. But I do also make positional steals with hands like 78s so don't know if he observes difference is size of raises or not.
Anyway my table image should definitely be tight-aggresive, and he knows I'm a winning player.

I am on button with a stack of $104 (Edit holding )
Villain has $200ish.

Theres an EP limp
Villain limps MP
I raise to $12 (6BB)
blinds and EP limp fold
Villain calls.

The flop is:

(Pot $27)

Villain checks
Your move and why?

well... what do you have?

You expect me to tell you what cards I have aswell, jesus.......

See edit

that's a toughy!

i'd be tempted to bet incase he was on a flush draw but i would probably check this. If it's just you and him in the hand and you check the flop, if he hits the turn he'll likely beleive he is ahead and should bet out. I would check this and bet on the turn and river, or mayb make a very small raise to give him value on his cards but i would be worried his was on a chase with Ax of spades or AQ. He might have AJ or QQ and so you can be happy you're ahead.

i would probably bet this thinking about it now.. you can easily give him pot odds with a pot that size and he's likely to call a small bet. Bet it imo!

Easy 3/4 pot bet. Can't give odds to a draw, and you can't give a free card to a draw either.

Either he's trapping and it's goign to get nasty, or he's goign to fold. You have either gotten everything out of him that you can, or he's goign to get stacked. Unless he has a hand like AQs or TQs, which is going to get interesting.

__________________

I would bet atleast the size of the pot. If he is on a st8 draw or a flush draw I want him to pay to see the next card. The down side is if he has 2nd or 3rd button he will probably fold. If he does call then he probably is on the flush draw or has trips.

Hmm hands he could have to called your 6BB, AK,AQ,JJ,1010... maybe AJs,KQs,KJs. I would have expected a re-raise with AA (unless he slowplays alot) or QQ.

The check on flop I find kind of weird. He either hates this flop or really loves it. If he had something like AJ or QQ, I think he would have tried to bet and represent the K knowing that you have a strong pf hand.

well Im certainly not giving a free card with that board.

I want to make a tester bet to see if he is slowplaying a strong hand, prob bet about $10-12. If he gives up the pot, you were not gonna make much off this hand anyway.

If he calls, hes prob got some kind of draw (which means my bet prob was not enough). If the turns a blank, I make a big turn bet. If turn looks dangerous I just check or call, hope river pairs something.

If he re-raises on flop , then I think Im correct that he has a strong hand like AA,AK,KJ,JJ. I dont see how hes getting away from a push here.

__________________
"On a large enough time line, the survival rate of a Donk will drop to zero."

Top set is hard to play imo. You can take the easy route and bet the 3/4-full pot and take down the $26 bux right now.

But then again its really tempting to get more money out of your monster hands. I continuation bet probably 80% of pf raises, exspecially when paint flops. So in this case checking is more suspicious than betting. That and the possiblilty of giving a free card, I think checking here is out of the question.

I'm proabably betting half the pot here. It still makes it mistake for him to call with any drawing hand (mabye not with Q10spades but meh). This also might be interpreted as weakness inducing a bluff check-raise ($$$$).

If he makes a better hand on the turn, he's prolly gonna check to trap and you can take a free card hopin for a boat and an almost surefire double up. If the turn comes a blank, I'd prolly lead out 3/4-full pot as the pot would now be worth taking down w/out showdown.

So damn true.

His check announce a draw or that he totally missed the flop and abandon the pot. He cant have a monster strong enough to check-raise/check-call this flop, what could it be anyway ??

With a set, 2 pairs or AK he would have bet automatically, being afraid of the flush draw or even straight draw.

If you make a pot sized bet or 2/3 pot bet he can put you on top pair trying to buy the pot on the flop. He s most likely to call with his draw if he has Axs. He could even Raise you with AQs.
If he has nothing you wont make much money anyway.

__________________

I would probalby bet about half the pot. If he is on a draw, his odds arent as good he he thinks since you have 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river to crush him.

Hopefully he hits a piece of this and you can hang him.