Casino tourney.
Final table.

I won't get into the KAYsh details.

Started with T500. 7 left.

UTG is around 5-6k
CL is two to my left with 14k
Guy #3 has been damn near invisible to me all day, but has 10k
The Alex in CO with 11k
Button has about 3k

SB (SB Villian or SBV) with around 9k (solid, player, seeing flops with position, pretty aggressive)

BB (BB Villian or BBV) has about the same as UTG (5-6k), abnormally weak-tight at final table, looking to sneak into top 3 or 4. (he told me this at the break before the final table.) I've played a lot with BBV and he's normally active in side games, but this is the first time I've played a lot of tourney hands with him and he's been less active, but the tourney was maniacal and I was less active as well as day.

Blinds 100/200 ante 25
My hand:

Everyone folds to me.
I raise to 800. Button folds. SBV calls. BBV calls... SHIT!!!

Flop:
SBV checks. BBV bets 2000. I _________?

SBV obviously has no interest and if I fold, the hand is over. I'm sure of that. I asked BBV how much he had left. He counts it up and says that he has 3625. I admit he had more than I expected left in his stack. Pre-flop, I thought he only had 4k. My boo-boo.

Pot= T4875

No way I'm calling the 2k. I putting 5625 in the pot or I'm folding.

Have at it. The only wrong answers are the ones devoid of rationale i.e. "push" or "fold. wait for a better spot." Those are bad answers. Tell me why and what you're thinking.

Pretty please with a Michelle Wie on top.

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I put him all in. You have some many out, and this pot here will put you in a very nice spot for later. I assume your already ITM, so if your playing to win, I think this is a good spot to put some chips in and see what happens.

He may fold, which I highly doubt, and you'll pick up a nice pot. If he calls all in, you have a good chance to draw to better hand, if you're not ahead already, which is possible.

So raise him all in, and see where they fall.

I'd be fairly confident pushing it in at this point. I'm trying to figure out a hand range for him, but the way it played out doesn't make much sense. I don't know what he is calling with PF that would have you beat here given his flop bet. I don't see him calling with AJ/88/99 type hands. Why would he play these hands weakly as a shortstack? I'm re-raising strong with these hands, and I don't want to be pushed around. In regards to your hand, you've got TPGK with a gutshot SFD. Your hand is fairly strong here. So we must look at his flop bet. What would he call pre-flop with, but then make a weakish bet on the flop with? My guess is an AXh type hand. I'm pushing him in after his bet to see what he's got. The weird thing about his flop bet is that he has half of his stack committed to this pot. Maybe he will call the all-in, but at this point we really have no idea.

All-in baby.

top pair, straight draw and straight flush draw. This is the perfect hand to be playing at a stage like this - you couldn't ask for better.

Shove your chips in and you can be pretty certain that unless he has a higher flush draw than you (pretty unlikely) you'll have 60-70% to win

possible reasons for fold;
you say BB is trying to squeeze into the top 3, so here he is taking an abnormal risk in putting his life at jeopardy. secondly your familiar w/ him, and your gut is telling you you dont like this situation.

2. I wouldn't count queens as outs, only the remaining two jacks (and even that is iffy) b/c imo he should have a minimum of two pair here.

3. could be up against a set/strait, so only have flush outs

so while it looks like a ton of outs, I would say its really only 9 outs. so the pot will be 4875+(3625)=8.5k, and it will put in 5.625, so 8:5 I think for a 9 outer on two streets????


i dont know, If i feel im outmatched, i quickly call. but if i feel i can choose a better spot i fold..

i should add; youll have a nice stack if you win, will be screwed if you lose

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I'm fairly certain you're behind here to an overpair. It sounds like BBV has either QQ, KK or AA from the description. There's less likelihood he's hit trips due to his preflop action unless he has JJ (though I think he may have check the flop). So for the purposes of this I'm going to say KK.

Now it's time to count outs....

9 hearts
3 tens
2 jacks
3 queens

I'll write off the other bits and bobs against his runner runners and he may have Kh and may hit two pair or trips.

That's 17 outs at best and over 60% to hit. I'm going to scale it down a bit to allow for him having QQ or JJ and say we're about 55%. I'm doing battlefield maths here so my numbers are only good enough for government work.

I agree it's push or fold and I'm assuming he's calling if I push (fold equity almost zero).

Given the size of the stacks, the pot and not knowing the payouts I reckon you have a very tough decision on your hands. There's only the 800 from the SB as overlay otherwise it's an even money deal on the pot (I'm trusting your read that he's folding).

MMmmmm... I'd really like to know the payouts (if not the cash then the relative size of them to each other).

I'm really trusting the read here, but you win and you're not massively ahead, you lose and you're back in the pack...

If you think you're good enough to outplay the remainder then it's a fold. If you're in the mood for a coinflip then it's a call.

If I'm really pressed for an answer I'd fold it as I'm only 800 chips down on the pot and it doesn't sound like there's a need to gamble, the blinds are small enough to let tighty have it.

surely AA-QQ, even JJ would raise from the BB??

BB is scared, so he dosnt wanna bust i think. So when he see CO or BUton raise (possibly with low hand requirements from that position) and then the SB call, BB wil probably try to protect w/ high PP and re-raise pf.

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Possibly, but the way this guy is described I can see him wanting to see a flop before commiting all his chips. He also doesn't strike me as the kind to be making continuation bets. This means he has a made hand and I don't see him callin pf with AJ (though it's possible). QT, J9, J8 don't make sense nor does Ahxh (unless it's AK I guess). The only made hands this leaves are AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 99 and 88. Last two are possible but I'm sticking with KK as the benchmark.

Could well be way wrong though

Based on your description, its likely that BB has made a hand. However, if he knows you, this could be a good move with any cards. There are a lot of hands that make sense for BB here and you range from slight dog to big favorite:
88 or 99 40% equity (yours)
QT 42%
AA/QQ 54%
AJ/KJ 54%
89 58%
Ax of hearts 65%

You are favorite vs. everything but a set and QT and you have outs/odds vs. them both.
The worst case scenario (unlikely as it is) is that he has T7 of hearts - you would be only 38% to win or JJ (37%)

Without doing the math, I'm sure you have the odds to push here even without the fold equity.
But nobody is talking about the SB. There's really no hand that is strong enough for a C/R but I can see him being very sure of a bet from at least one of you. Not wise, IMO, but possible.

Also, if you fold, your blind steals are not going to be respected as much.

Bottom line, I say push (if you are playing for 1st), but glance at SB and see if he's getting chips ready. I hope you caught one of your outs.

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"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

OK. I'll get to the cash. We are in the money. Top 9 paid out. I'm only concerned with winning or at the worst Top 4 as 5th pays $750.

1st $3600
2nd $2000
3rd $1400
4th $1000

What I've failed to mention is that I'd lost over $500 on props with a friend on a Cubs game that was on the TV's. I was planning on going home after the tourney because the side action sucked from what I saw and heard, so I was in no rush to leave.

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