On wikipedia they say that overcard probability if you hold QQ is 1.5:1, which means QQ would be the underdog.

This is very different from the 1.2:1 favorite of a pair versus 2 overcards.

Which is correct now?

article link-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_p..._hold_%27em%29

http://www.pokerstove.com/

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 56.0561 % 55.84% 00.21% { QQ }
Hand 2: 43.9439 % 43.73% 00.21% { AKs, AKo }

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BOSS

There's a lot of info in that link. What exactly did it say?

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"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

Over card probability means, I think, the chances of hitting an overcard on the flop.

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No, I mean the bottom of the section called THE FLOP:

"Notice that there is a better than 35% probability that an ace will come by the river if holding pocket kings, and with pocket queens, the odds are slightly in favor of an ace or a king coming by the turn, and a full 60% in favor of an overcard to the queen by the river."


Maybe the mistake I'm making here is that I assume someone has AK, which would mean one has to subtract those two cards & then the computation would yield lower than 60%.

Well, there is also a chance that a third Q will hit the board by the river, which would mitigate an overcard. This will happen about 20% of the time.

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"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

Are you sure it's 20%?

I recall HoH and other sources said 1/7 or less?

1/7 to hit your set on the flop. 1/5 to hit the set by the river.
prob. of Q = 1-(prob of no Q)
p = 1- [(48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48)*(45/47)*(44/46)] = 20%

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"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."

Thanks ypsieast! THat clarifies it...