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  1. 05-08-2006 #1
    OrionPro
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    Default Odds AK vs QQ - which numbers are correct?

    On wikipedia they say that overcard probability if you hold QQ is 1.5:1, which means QQ would be the underdog.

    This is very different from the 1.2:1 favorite of a pair versus 2 overcards.

    Which is correct now?

    article link-
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_p..._hold_%27em%29
    Last edited by OrionPro; 05-08-2006 at 06:52 AM.
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  2. 05-08-2006 #2
    SeanyBullets1
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    Default

    http://www.pokerstove.com/

    equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
    Hand 1: 56.0561 % 55.84% 00.21% { QQ }
    Hand 2: 43.9439 % 43.73% 00.21% { AKs, AKo }
    BOSS
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  3. 05-08-2006 #3
    ypsieast
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    There's a lot of info in that link. What exactly did it say?
    "There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."
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  4. 05-08-2006 #4
    Marm
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaFish
    On wikipedia they say that overcard probability if you hold QQ is 1.5:1, which means QQ would be the underdog.

    This is very different from the 1.2:1 favorite of a pair versus 2 overcards.

    Which is correct now?

    article link-
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_p..._hold_%27em%29
    Over card probability means, I think, the chances of hitting an overcard on the flop.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.
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  5. 05-09-2006 #5
    OrionPro
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    No, I mean the bottom of the section called THE FLOP:

    "Notice that there is a better than 35% probability that an ace will come by the river if holding pocket kings, and with pocket queens, the odds are slightly in favor of an ace or a king coming by the turn, and a full 60% in favor of an overcard to the queen by the river."


    Maybe the mistake I'm making here is that I assume someone has AK, which would mean one has to subtract those two cards & then the computation would yield lower than 60%.
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  6. 05-09-2006 #6
    ypsieast
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    Well, there is also a chance that a third Q will hit the board by the river, which would mitigate an overcard. This will happen about 20% of the time.
    "There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."
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  7. 05-09-2006 #7
    OrionPro
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    Are you sure it's 20%?

    I recall HoH and other sources said 1/7 or less?
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  8. 05-09-2006 #8
    ypsieast
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    Quote Originally Posted by DaFish
    Are you sure it's 20%?

    I recall HoH and other sources said 1/7 or less?
    1/7 to hit your set on the flop. 1/5 to hit the set by the river.
    prob. of Q = 1-(prob of no Q)
    p = 1- [(48/50)*(47/49)*(46/48)*(45/47)*(44/46)] = 20%
    "There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."
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  9. 05-09-2006 #9
    OrionPro
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    Thanks ypsieast! THat clarifies it...
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