Pot odds - headache :(

OrionPro · #1 (**permalink**) 05-05-2006, 04:14 PM

Ok I've found this article recently:

http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/nolimit_betting.php

It seems though the mathematics are wrong.

From what I figure, it is more than enough to put in a pot-sized bet if somebody else is on a flush draw (if he misses I can still bet on the river again)

Say the pot is $100. I bet $100 so the ratio pot vs the bet for him is 2:1 right?
But the odds of him catching the right card is only 5:1 (on the turn)?

So even half-the-pot bet is sufficient here?

gder03 · #2 (**permalink**) 05-05-2006, 04:35 PM

think maybe 4.5:1 to catch on any street.

so if there is 3$ in a pot on flop and you bet 2$ its 2$ for him to call a 5$ pot so 5:2 = 2.5:1

bet 1$ and its 1 for him to call a 4 pot, so 4:1

Beavis68 · #3 (**permalink**) 05-05-2006, 04:47 PM

they are making the mistake of using chance of making it on the turn and river for flop odds. The problem is that you aren't getting both cards for free. NL it is hard to figure this stuff exactly because of implied odds.

OrionPro · #4 (**permalink**) 05-05-2006, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gder03

think maybe 4.5:1 to catch on any street.

so if there is 3$ in a pot on flop and you bet 2$ its 2$ for him to call a 5$ pot so 5:2 = 2.5:1

bet 1$ and its 1 for him to call a 4 pot, so 4:1

Yeah but that's exactly what I'm saying? (except you gave a better approx. for catching the flush)

WotaWaster · #5 (**permalink**) 05-05-2006, 09:39 PM

If you played with your cards face up you could make a bet giving 4-1 on a flush draw and be correct.

However if you ever pay off a bet on river when flush card hits you will now be giving better than 4-1.

Similarly, if you always fold to any bet when a flush card hits on river you will fold a lot of winners, as you are easily bluffed.

Unless you are 100% opponent is on flush draw it's best to not try and give too tempting odds.

OrionPro · #6 (**permalink**) 05-06-2006, 04:35 AM

With bluffing it gets too complex so I just assume here I know it.

IMO since I can still go 'all in' when the turn misses, he's not getting correct odds to call even a half-sized pot bet.

ypsieast · #7 (**permalink**) 05-06-2006, 06:35 AM

If the villain assumes he has the full 9 outs for a flush, he needs pot odds of 4:1 to justify a call to see just 1 more card (if we ignore implied odds). So betting over 1/3 the size of the pot is technically correct if implied odds = 0.

Check out this thread on pot odds:

Pot Odds

Quote:

Originally Posted by ypsieast

Some clarification:

Probability (p) = % chance you will get your card
Quick approx. calculation is 2x outs + 2 for 1 card; 4x outs for 2 cards
If you have 9 outs, your (p) of hitting an out on 1 card = 20% and 36% for 2 cards

Odds (o) = (1-p)/p
If p = 20% then o = (1-.20)/.20 = 4 to 1

Pot Odds = ($ of Pot)/($ to call)
If the pot is 500 and it costs you 100 to call then your pot odds = 5 to 1
Pot odds are favorable when greater than the odds to hit your out
If your odds to hit your hand are 4 to 1 and the pot odds are 5 to 1, then the situation offers favorable pot odds and you should usually call.
The problem is that if you calculate you (p) and in turn your (o) based on 2 cards to come, you are ignoring the fact that you may have to call another bet on the turn. If calling would put you all in, you would use the formula [outs x4] to calculate your (p).

Implied Odds = Pot Odds adjusted for the likelihood of winning additional bets, should you hit your outs.
There isn't a standard formula for implied odds. You just think e.g., "OK, if I complete my OESD, I can double up through this guy; even though my odds are 5.25 to one to complete my str8 and the pot odds are only 4 to 1, I'm going to call. Because if I hit my card, I will be paid 10 times this bet on the turn.

Breakeven Percentage = % times you need to win in that situation to break even win/loss over the long run.
Calculation: ($ to call)/($ in pot + $ to call)
Example: Pot is 800 and you have to call 200 to see the river. Breakeven %= 200/(800+200) = 20% This means that if you called a million times in this situation, you would break even in the long run if you had a 20% chance of winning the hand.
If your Breakeven % is less than your (p), then it is +EV to call.

OrionPro · #8 (**permalink**) 05-06-2006, 09:49 AM

Thanks, that's the best post I've seen on the subject!

Combined with the stuff Harrington writes I hope to vastly improve now.