Ok, speaking of Donkish moments, lets ignore My PF call, my flop call, and perhaps even my turn call. But I do have a little reasoning behind them. Villian was a sLsAsA (29/8/1.9) over 250+ hands. I figured there is a chance he could be betting this without an ace, giving my action. Granted my Flop call is way -EV, but I felt like I had to call PF (post raise, I like limping early with Suited aces, you're SUPPOSED to play them for flush/trips value). Turn call I don't dislike as much since the chance that he Doesn't have an ace just went way up. And the river, I'm only losing to JJ (which is a remote possibility), but I figured given the chances that he may not have an ace, and even with the increased rake, my CR was +EV?

Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: ITH Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , .
2 folds, Hero calls, 4 folds, SB raises, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (5 SB) , , (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.50 BB) (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls.

River: (5.50 BB) (2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB
Main Pot: 9.50 BB, between SB and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (9.50 BB).

Results in white below:
SB has Qh Qs (two pair, aces and queens).
Hero has 4c Ac (full house, aces full of jacks).
Outcome: Hero wins 9.50 BB.

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I like playing Ax suited in early position as well. But do you find it is +ev?

I'm guessing, so my math could be poker-retarded.

Even though he's bad, he'll call with AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, and A2. That's about a 2 in 25 chance.

Having the 2 remaining Jacks is about a 1 in 25 chance.

You gain in the 1 in 110ish chance that he has KK or QQ.

You also gain in the 1 in 333 chance that he has 77.

Loosely estimated:
12 in 1,000 you gain.
12 in 100 you lose.

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If he's bluffing a couple of diamonds, that's about a 1 in 17 or 6 in 100 shot, that could inflate your 12 in 1,000 to about a 72 in 1,000. Against the 120 in 1,000 you lose... still bad. Not to mention the times you get 3-bet in those 120 times.

That said, raising is a large part of nature in your spot. Throw out your bad play before. In the moment, with A2 or AK, I'd raise against a douchebag like this unless I really thought it out.

EDIT: I'm a dumb-fuck. You're gettin' like 26:1, I'm guessing? Your raise is +EV.

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I would be leary of called with a4s heads up vs a playing with a 8% PFR. he is loose, but he doesnt raise that much.

other than that - meh, I dont know. I doubt he would raise with worse than AT.

Pre-flop: Whatever, you called. Time to make the best of this hand. I think we're looking at a hand like a TT possibly.

Flop: I'm raising here. Most of you might disagree with this, but I want to find out if he has an Ace right now. If he 3bets, you can play it appropriately from there.

Turn: I'm definitely raising here. I think we lack the information necessary however due to the flop call. I really have no idea what he has by calling down on the flop and here.

River: Looks good.

EDIT: whoops, way screwed up the first chart. I was giving myself 0% equity if he had an Ace, supposed to be 50%. This is a breakdown of what I expected to see if I got called.

So yes, Raising was +EV here given my breakdown.

Attached Images

 

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