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Thread: River EV?

  1. #1
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default River EV?

    Ok, speaking of Donkish moments, lets ignore My PF call, my flop call, and perhaps even my turn call. But I do have a little reasoning behind them. Villian was a sLsAsA (29/8/1.9) over 250+ hands. I figured there is a chance he could be betting this without an ace, giving my action. Granted my Flop call is way -EV, but I felt like I had to call PF (post raise, I like limping early with Suited aces, you're SUPPOSED to play them for flush/trips value). Turn call I don't dislike as much since the chance that he Doesn't have an ace just went way up. And the river, I'm only losing to JJ (which is a remote possibility), but I figured given the chances that he may not have an ace, and even with the increased rake, my CR was +EV?

    Ultimate Bet 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: ITH Forums)

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , .
    2 folds, Hero calls, 4 folds, SB raises, 1 fold, Hero calls.

    Flop: (5 SB) , , (2 players)
    SB bets, Hero calls.

    Turn: (3.50 BB) (2 players)
    SB bets, Hero calls.

    River: (5.50 BB) (2 players)
    SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls.

    Final Pot: 9.50 BB
    Main Pot: 9.50 BB, between SB and Hero. > Pot won by Hero (9.50 BB).

    Results in white below:
    SB has Qh Qs (two pair, aces and queens).
    Hero has 4c Ac (full house, aces full of jacks).
    Outcome: Hero wins 9.50 BB.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  2. #2
    Chaser
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    Default

    I like playing Ax suited in early position as well. But do you find it is +ev?

  3. #3
    PokerForums God the alex's Avatar
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    Default

    I'm guessing, so my math could be poker-retarded.

    Even though he's bad, he'll call with AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A6, A5, A4, A3, and A2. That's about a 2 in 25 chance.

    Having the 2 remaining Jacks is about a 1 in 25 chance.

    You gain in the 1 in 110ish chance that he has KK or QQ.

    You also gain in the 1 in 333 chance that he has 77.

    Loosely estimated:
    12 in 1,000 you gain.
    12 in 100 you lose.
    Quote Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
    GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
    GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus

  4. #4
    PokerForums God the alex's Avatar
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    If he's bluffing a couple of diamonds, that's about a 1 in 17 or 6 in 100 shot, that could inflate your 12 in 1,000 to about a 72 in 1,000. Against the 120 in 1,000 you lose... still bad. Not to mention the times you get 3-bet in those 120 times.

    That said, raising is a large part of nature in your spot. Throw out your bad play before. In the moment, with A2 or AK, I'd raise against a douchebag like this unless I really thought it out.

    EDIT: I'm a dumb-fuck. You're gettin' like 26:1, I'm guessing? Your raise is +EV.
    Last edited by the alex; 05-05-2006 at 02:09 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by FaDi View Post
    GodFadiR (12:32:45 AM): but lets be honest
    GodFadiR (12:32:48 AM): who doesnt wanna fuck me
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:22 AM): I do
    WotaWotaWota (12:33:27 AM): in tehanus

  5. #5
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    I would be leary of called with a4s heads up vs a playing with a 8% PFR. he is loose, but he doesnt raise that much.

    other than that - meh, I dont know. I doubt he would raise with worse than AT.

  6. #6
    Poker Professional Announced Tilt's Avatar
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    Pre-flop: Whatever, you called. Time to make the best of this hand. I think we're looking at a hand like a TT possibly.

    Flop: I'm raising here. Most of you might disagree with this, but I want to find out if he has an Ace right now. If he 3bets, you can play it appropriately from there.

    Turn: I'm definitely raising here. I think we lack the information necessary however due to the flop call. I really have no idea what he has by calling down on the flop and here.

    River: Looks good.

  7. #7
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    EDIT: whoops, way screwed up the first chart. I was giving myself 0% equity if he had an Ace, supposed to be 50%. This is a breakdown of what I expected to see if I got called.

    So yes, Raising was +EV here given my breakdown.
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    Last edited by Marm; 05-05-2006 at 04:19 PM.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

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