Bluffing the river on a checked board (MTT)

[Irexes]

Here's something different ...

I have lots of rules for MTTs (don't bluff more than two people, don't play Q9o etc) and I break pretty much all of them here but I like the move as I felt I was winning far more often than not, what's the opinion? The result is of course not relevant


45 minutes in to a $33 MTT. Starting stack 3000 I have 2590. Nothing's happening and the table is as tight as can be, almost unique in terms of the absence of any fish or people I would call loose. I haven't shown down a hand yet and have just picked up a few small pots on the flop.


***** Hand History for Game 4192406511 *****
NL Texas Hold'em Trny:23118063 Level:4 Blinds(100/200) - Friday, May 05, 15:57:01 ET 2006
Table Regular(685481) Table #13 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: tahco ( $6365 )
Seat 2: felixie ( $3400 )
Seat 3: LodiRock ( $3174 )
Seat 5: gator22222 ( $5677 )
Seat 6: Irexes ( $2590 )
Seat 7: john1170 ( $3390 )
Seat 9: mr1973 ( $3137 )
Seat 4: loser_67 ( $5397 )
Seat 8: firehorse_1 ( $2630 )
Trny:23118063 Level:4
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Irexes [ ]

As the cards are dealt I hover over the fold button.

mr1973 folds.
tahco calls [200].
felixie calls [200].
LodiRock folds.
loser_67 calls [200].
gator22222 calls [200].

There's some mighty pot odds and I'll have position. If I connect hard with the flop I'll probably get paid and I can walk away no problem from Qxx if I need to. So...

Irexes calls [200].
john1170 folds.
firehorse_1 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ , , ]
firehorse_1 checks.
tahco checks.
felixie checks.
loser_67 checks.
gator22222 checks.
Irexes checks.

Nothing for me here, someone must have connected. Only lost 200 though.

** Dealing Turn ** [ ]
firehorse_1 checks.
tahco checks.
felixie checks.
loser_67 checks.
gator22222 checks.
Irexes checks.

Still no action but those in EP might have looked to check raise. (I even ticked the check/fold box)

** Dealing River ** [ ]
firehorse_1 checks.
tahco checks.
felixie checks.
loser_67 checks.
gator22222 checks.

OK. There's no ace, no-one's got a king, they'd have taken a stab at it. If someone's got a jack then I might be in trouble, but I can't see anyone having an excuse to call and the 1300 would really help me if I take it. Those in EP will also need to be sure that those that follow don't get pulled in by the improving odds. So...

Irexes is all-In [2390]

[Beavis68]

do you really need to go allin?

shouldn't 800-1200 be good?

[Irexes]

Quite possibly Beav. Perhaps though the bluff was more convincing allin and made it less likely someone would play sherrif?

[gder03]

thed question is what % of the time do you think it will work (the more you bet, the higher % it must work).

this kind of bluff will work alot of the time imo. do you think JQ would call it? or maybe 99?

I proly wouldnt bluff it like this. Id prolly chek. If i were to bluff, i'd do a 1k bet on the end.

[Barbourman]

Not sure. I would think that the all-in might have shown 'bluff' more than a pot-raise.

I know for a fact that I would bet SOMETHING.

I know, I know...but.....what happened?

[Irexes]

It's a good point about the allin saying bluff. I think you are probably right. The checked board said to me that no-one had connected in any meaningful way and I didn't think too long as in this kind of situation I think a long pause would have been bad (interested in views on this as well).

As to %ages of outcome with a pot sized bet V the allin, the pot sized bet does raise the prospect of being reraised by someone who smells weakness and fancies venturing 2500 chips to put me to the test, but not 2500 to call me. The fold equity might be attractive?

Undeniably though a factor for me was that if I havn't doubled up in the first 30-40 minutes of an MTT I start to reach for the all in a lot. It's do or die for me, I either like a big stack or no stack in the second hour. Once I am in this mode of play perhaps here I was more eager to push in than was necessary?

[Beavis68]

also, what about pushinng the turn where you are least have some outs?

[Irexes]

On the turn, there was not enough evidence for me that there was nobody who had anything and I preferred to wait for a better chance to push on another hand.

There was a good chance are my outs were dead anyway (if no-one had a king, somone must have had a Q or 9) and I really really rarely make bluffs in multiway pots without at least some semblance of a hand or a preflop raise, made or otherwise. And from the perspective of potential callers there's always the chance of enticing a call from someone who is chasing a draw themself, ordinarily this would be a good thing but with Q high it's entirely possible even a drawing hand is beating me.

[grant]

I'd probably bet $400-$500 there. At a tight table that should be enough to scare off someone with a lesser pair than JavaScript.

I think anyone who can call the $500 would call an all-in anyways so there's no need to risk so much. (There's also possibility someone has been sitting on their monster.)

Do we get to know the result?

[Beavis68]

eh, I was thinking the jack hit on the turn.