So here's one of those "crazy" situations where we have to ask ourselves if we would play anything . . . even AA.

2005 WPT Doyle Brunson Classic (was on this Saturday)

Prize Payouts (approximate):
1st - $1 Million
2nd - $500 K
3rd - $250 K

Blinds $80,000/$160,000 Ante $15,000

Chip Counts (Approximate)
Carlos Mortensen - SB w/ $5.6 Million
Thang “Kido” Pham - BB w/ $1.6 Million
David "the dragon" Pham - Button w/ $150,000

The previous hand: David and Kido went all in heads up, with David calling Kido's K9 all in with 33 because of the escalating blinds. Kido hit his King on the flop, and won the hand. David now has less than 1 BB, and is on the button. He either plays this hand or the next hand.

PF - David thinks about it, then folds. Carlos looks down at his hand and goes all in.

Kido looks down at his hand . . . TT. Kido had previously folded in just this situation earlier in the tourney when he and Carlos were virtually tied for the chip lead (with 5 players remaining).

What do you do??? And why?

What do you do if you're Kido and have AA? Why?

Personally, I fold any hand - even AA here.

(BTW - I'm going to NY for 2 weeks, I'll try and dump in a comment or two while I'm there . . .but otherwise I'll see ya in 2 weeks!).

im calling, there is no guarantee that pham is going out on the next hand and you are going have to double up pretty quick in order to win the heads up, already ITM and mort likes to bully a little bit. Wouldnt even think about folding AA, reason there is no chance in hell im folding AA is because it would be playing scared you are 100% guarnteed to have the best hand preflop you take a beat shit happens but you gotta play to win

Wow tough decision, while part of me would never lay down AA pre flop it's a 250K decision for real $. Even though we're favored to win, we've all lost going all in pre flop with AA. Short stack gets blinded out unless he gets lucky shortly and you're guaranteed 500K. Take a bad beat with AA and you just handed over and additional $250K to a player who will be going all in with anything as soon as he gets heads up.

From a tournament strategy standpoint it's probably correct to fold any hand and you'll almost guarantee at least $500K in your pocket.

From just about any other point of view it's completely the wrong move.

Seeing as how anything can happen heads up, I'd probably grit my teeth and fold and hope to double up after getting HU. All that time playing to make it that far I'm not just handing over 250K to someone who will be blinded out in the next hand.

Originally Posted by Beavis68

you are actually right.

I think you could put Carlos on literally any two cards here, and TT vs a random hand is a 75% favorite, I didnt think it was that good.

So I would say his play is ballsy, but correct from a $ EV stand point.

Actually, several folks have alleged that the Pham's made a deal. . . . entirely legal of course.

Also, looking back, I think it was closer to $1.1 in chips for Kido (just reread some other sites on this one).

This is just one of those situations in which even if I know that it would be +EV somehow for me to call . . . . I'm not sure I'd have the guts to do it. $250K is a lot of money to leave on the table, given that David is going to be all in next hand with a random hand vs. 2 callers.

As it was happening (of course it's a rerun from last year), I was screaming at the TV "fold you fucking idiot!!!". I was also screaming at the TV earlier when he folded the TT in just this situation when he was slightly ahead of Carlos for the chip lead ("Call you fucking idiot!!").

- But then again, I remember the 2004 US Poker Championship when D'Agastino called with TT in just this situation against Hoyt Corkins when they were virtually even in chips. Hoyt turned over 96o and flopped trip 9's. D'Agastino, who at one time held 60% of all the chips at the table, literally threw his chipstack at Hoyt in disgust (he was left with one $1000 chip left).

Originally Posted by Beavis68

well, what happened is that hoyt made him count it down 3 times.

after the third time D'Ags started shoving them at Hoyt.

At the time there is no way I could do the math to show it was a good call - even after I did most of the math I thought TT was a bad call, against many other players you can't put them on a random hand either.

When I first saw it I felt very sorry for D'Ags . . . . he had a monster chip stack at the beginning of final table play (I think it was something like 65% of all the chips in play) and he was only 21 at the time. I remember that he overplayed several hands (staying in a hand with heavy PF action with a suited KQ comes to mind) . . . then when he caught Hoyt with his pants down, I thought he was going to double up and take the tourney. Wasn't his day . . .

I thought Hoyt was out of line for asking for several recounts . . . he almost apologized to him later when he said "John, you took some bad beats today". I think Hoyt and D'Ags are class acts from what I've seen, so I'm willing to forgive some stuff in the heat of the moment like this. Frankly, I'd have to hold myself back from punching Hoyt out if he asked me to count my chips down 3 times (obviously trying to see if I was eliminated or had a couple of chips left).

I still like D'Ags call . . . . sometimes I think Hoyt plays far too predictably (though he really changed it up in the WPT event I saw him in) . . . . an all in move there with an equal chipstack when you've got plenty of chips seemed very desperate for a fold (and it was). On Hoyt's part, this is one of those "donked into good luck hands" as this play is going to work every time except when your opponent wakes up with a big hand and you wake up busted out.