I agree. You have to play AA, just because it is what it is. If we were THAT tight about playing it safe, we wouldn't be playing a no-limit tournament, we'd be at a limit ring game.

I would fold everything else. KK, despite all of it's glory, is only a 2:1 favorite against Ace-crap, and there's a decent chance that's just what our opponent has. The shear volume of money distorts the situation, and IMO diverges the best play from the mathematically correct play.

If I were a pro, I think the fold is that much easier. I live for final tables. Literally. I need to make the most of this one. $250K for one fold isn't a terrible deal. ;-)

if you fold when it is correct to call you are not making the most of it.

how are you doing this math?

What does 3rd 45k mean?

did you look at what I did with the ICM?

What hand range are you putting him on?

I think in order to compute whether it's good or bad to fold, we have to calculate the possibility of winning against Carlos first. Maybe he is such strong player that it's better to fold?

Also I read that for instance AA vs 67 suited is only 76% to win, and he may hold suited, connected cards.

And then someone in another thread says:

Actually, if he is a strong player it is usually better to gamble.

If the player is tight, it is better to fold.

if you think that carlos would only use som the top 1/3 of the hands, then TT is a safer fold.

If he used the top hands it is close to call, but a fold with TT but a call with JJ.

It is actually correct for Carlos to move-in with any hand, his opponent can only correctly call him with pairs 99+, calling with AKs is a mistake. That means Carlos will pick up the pot 97 times and lose 3

TT I would fold here in a heartbeat.

AA I'm calling just as quick.

I've folded TT in similar situations before (for a lot less cash obviously), but there's no guarentee that folding AA here equals 2nd place and there's no better chance coming along than this to take a stab at doubling.

Irexes, why is folding TT correct?

Lets examine the EV of $ winnings (for Kido) based on this hand and the next hand. We can look at this as 2 groups with 5 total outcomes:

A. FOLD (Outcomes 1-3)
1) Fold hand 1, win hand 2
2) Fold hand 1, CL wins hand 2
3) Fold hand 1, SS wins hand 2

B. CALL (Outcomes 4-5)
1) Lose hand, out of tournament
2) Win hand

Assumptions:
On hand number 2, it is assumed that the hand will be by all 3 players
On hand number 2, it is assumed that Kido will not add more than the BB to the pot (i.e. most likely the pot gets checked down to river to maximise the chance that SS will bust)

$EV calculations
1) (from outcome 1 above) Kido folds hand 1 and wins hand 2
Chip count: CL = 5.4mil; Kido = 1.9mil; SS = finished 3rd
Let's say down 3:1 in chips HU, Kido will win 1st 25% of the time and 2nd 75%
.25*1mil + .75*500k = 625k
EV winnings = $625k

2) Kido folds hand 1; CL wins hand 2
Chip count: CL = 6.1mil; Kido = 1.2mil; SS = finished 3rd
Let's say down 5:1 in chips HU, Kido will win 1st 20% of the time and 2nd 80%
.2*1mil + .8*500k = $600k
EV winnings = $600k

3) Kido folds hand 1; SS wins hand 2
Chip count: CL = 5.4; Kido = 1.2; SS = 500k
Let's say with these stacks, Kido wins tourney 15%; 2nd 70%; 3rd 20%
.15*1mil + .7*500k + .2*250k = $550k
EV winnings = $550k

Take outcomes 1-3 and find the total tournament $ EV:
.33*625k + .33*600k + .33*550k = 590k (rounded)

TOTAL ESTIMATED PAYOUT FOR FOLDING HAND 1 IS $590K

************************************************** *****
4) Kido calls hand #1 and loses
EV winnings = $250k

5) Kido calls hand #1 and wins
Chip count: CL = 4.0; Kido = 3.2; SS = 150k
Let's say with these stacks, Kido wins tourney 45%; 2nd 50%; 3rd 5%
.45*1mil + .5*500k + .05*250k = 710k (rounded)
EV winnings = $710k

The question becomes: What % of the time does Kido need to win hand #1 to have an Tournament $ EV > $590k (the EV of folding)

x+y=1
710x + 250y = 590
blah, blah, blah......
x=74%

Win% must be 74% on hand number 1 to be of Tournament $ EV equal to the $ EV of folding.


The Hand Equity (HE) of TT vs. any random hand is 75.1%
Therefore, if there is any chance that CL would make this move with any standard above "any hand", then definitely fold TT

HE of AA vs. a random hand is 85%
AA is playable.
AA is foldable if you put CL on a range of hands that bring HE of AA down to 74%.

To those of you who made it this far in the post: thanks and feedback is welcome.

__________________
"There is a good chance I gave you a very bad description of something that doesn't work."