Well, I'm a very weak/tight tournament player (maybe one of the reasons I've not had that great of tournament finishes when it comes to SnG's). I think I just call this. I see his weak lead like this...

A) He's on a total bluff because of a semi-Ragged flop (his call of your AI shows that this isn't the case, but I'm looking at your decision to push or call, not his actions)

B) He's got a weak hand that he's trying to protect

C) He's got a decent hand (TPTK with Nut FD, Overpair, 2 overcards that are diamonds) and he wants to see where he's at...

D) He's got a monster...trips

This early in the tournament I'm guessing that you didn't have a great read on him. You still don't have a made hand so while you have a better then 50% chance of improving to the best hand (I don't know if I could say that but I'll get to that in a moment) there are still quite a few cards that could beat you if you don't improve...

Improving to the best hand may be more difficult then some of us are giving credit for...if He's on the TPTK with nut FD then any diamond hurts you, not helps. If he's on trips and the board pairs he boats. Depending on what he's Holding, even pairing your overcards could hurt you (if he called with the low end of the str8 draw then pairing your J could str8en him out). if he's on an overpair (JJ or QQ) then your overcards may not be good. I think there are a lot of hands (given his call PF) that could already have you beat that would have redraws if you do improve so I'm not sure all your outs are outs to the best hand. Because of this, I'm wondering if a call would be more in order (or a fold...keep in mind I'm weak tight)...I also think a fold may not be that bad of a move because (this early in the tournament, people are going to notice) it gives you an image that you can be "pushed" out of pots that you've raised PF or that you bluffed PF...either one of those images could get somebody to play back at you harder later in the tournament if and when you flop a well hidden monster.

Personally, I think I'm calling to see the turn (or maybe a small reraise) and then seeing how he acts. I think He's on a TPDK or Small trips. I personally think there are too many hands he would play this way that might negate some of my outs to the str8 and flush that makes it so I couldn't count them as full outs. This early in the tournament, I'm CL, I'm comfortable, I think I play carefull and let the fish knock themselves out...If I get a blank on the turn and he bets out again (and I don't have odds) then I'm probably letting the hand go at that point...

I think it's interesting that you posted this hand because we've had some serious discussion in the past about weak-leads into a raiser...It almost always indicates a weak made hand that needs to be protected. In this case I think that's how I would be thinking of it and while I don't mind playing the hand further, I think I would like to see my hand improve before I push my chips...

I like the push. I think Tron's idea would work well in a MTT or standard SnG but being that it's turbo, you have to make the moves like this to finish ITM.

I like the push. I respect the call. I hate the fold.

If you were messing with another chip leader, I might lean towards calling.

Someone in another thread said that they don't think twice about higher flushes. You have to play your FD and OESD as live outs. I wouldn't count your overcards as live, but you don't really need them. They're just icing on the cake.

Just don't fold.

Originally Posted by Phytopath

Playing a 25+2 turbo SnG, doubled up two hands earlier using jason's little flat call trick with AK from the SB , thanks for that one. Anyway flopped a monster draw, 2 overs OESD and flush draw, against an unkwown. What is the best course of action on this flop?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1580
UTG+1: t1470
MP1: t1620
Hero: t2820
Button: t2980
SB: t1530
BB: t1500

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is CO with
3 folds, Hero raises to t90, 2 folds, BB calls t60 (pot was t135).

Flop: (t195, 2 players)
BB bets t120, Hero raises all-in t2730, BB calls all-in t1290.
Uncalled bets: t1320 returned to Hero.

Open end straight draw and flush draw ... over cards ... chips left over ...

What more do you want ... push it

You're welcome. I love the AK flat call . . . so profitable.

With that said, let me potentially rain on the parade. I don't play turbo SNG's so I could see if the blind structure moves too quickly, then I probably push this as well begging for a call. 21 outs, most of them likely clean (15 if not . . . I'm not putting him on a better diamond draw unless he's got AKd and was trapping). So in a very fast structure where you have to double to survive, then I'd go for it.

Originally Posted by Phytopath

In a regular SnG with even chip stacks, I would probably push like I did here with my wanting him to fold as my top choice.

If you really want him to fold in that situation, I think you need to adjust your risk/reward ratio to a more conservative setting. Risking 1400 chips to win 195 doesn't sound like a great semi-bluff if you want him to go away. Frankly, I'd feel like I'm doing pretty well here . . . only really worried about 55.

But in a normal SNG, I'm probably just calling PF, and calling on the flop. There's virtually no folding equity here (in real money), and I like to get my chips in when I'm a 70% or more favorite (and frankly a 91% favorite when I hit my set). If I don't hit on the turn and he bets big, I fold. No big deal, I've got plenty of chips and can almost (not quite) fold my way to the money (average stack size for the final 3 will be 5000, we're more than half way there).