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  1. #1
    Check Raiser Fishodeath's Avatar
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    Default Dealing with Probe bets

    I often run into a problem when playing NL - probe bets. I dont know how to react to a probe bet when I'm in early position. If the field is big and I dont have a hand worth raising the bet with is a easy fold, but I'm always stuck when I have a marginal draw that I'd pay the probe bet to see but not much else. It seems more often then not I get raised from behind and end up wasting the small bet.

    For example: say I have Js9s in the Big blind, a semi-aggressive player raises 3xbb from MP and the CO and the SB call so getting good odds I call. Flop comes 78Q with one spade. The sb puts out the minimum bet, I'm getting odds here to call with my gutshot and backdoor flush but I cant be sure I wont be raised from behind. I hate folding to such a small bet, but I also hate wasting a bet if someone behind me puts in a big raise.

    I know alot of this comes down to not playing maginal hands/draws out of positon, but the above situation is only an example. But I ran into this alot today during a tourny when the guy to my right would put out a probe bet at almost every flop that noone had bet into yet.

    I guess my question is how do you respond to a probe bet - in position? out of position? with made hand? weak draw? strong draw?

  2. #2
    Fish Food
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    i'd call the probe bet if theres only 1 guy behind you, otherwise fold it. more likely than not, someones going to raise you. with only 1 man behind you, those chances are less likely and all in all, its just better to at least try and defend your hand. mininum bets arent going to kill you in a larger touney, maybe a different story at sitngos

  3. #3
    Super Moderator WotaWaster's Avatar
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    I think these minimum bets create good bluffing opportunities. If the pot is 500 and somebody bets 50 then raise the bet to around 300.

    The fact that you have raised a bet makes your hand look stronger to a lot of players and they will be more likely to fold marginal hands. And as you are risking 300 to win 550 this bet doesn't need to be succesful much more than a third of the time.

  4. #4
    Poker Hustler Trons's Avatar
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    I've always seen probe bets (whether from somebody else or from myself) as trying to achieve different results based on current hand. I usually respond diferent ways depending on what I think is the purpose behind the bet.

    A) Total bluff: These suck as a bluff but since I've been playing more and more SnG's I've seen it frequently. The person (usually LP) thinks that because it was checked to him, nobody made a hand and it should be his by default. He doesn't want to invest too much money trying to win the hand so he makes a min bet hoping that'll work...It usually doesn't. These I'll usually raise if I have a hand but was in EP and wasn't sure of the strength of the hand. I'll also raise strong drawing hands in this situation. I will fold a hand if I missed it completely and I am not sure there is at least a 50% chance he's bluffing (been caught doing it several times before). Hands like TPWK, second pair, Nut FD with overcards are all raising hands in this situation...

    B) Semi-Bluff: If the bet comes from EP I tend to put them on a TPWK type hand. I've also seen (and done similar just not with a min bet) some people with a drawing hand. My read on the psychology behind these types of bets is the person knows he's going to call a bet made by somebody else (if it's low enough) so he decides to bet out lower then what he's willing to call hopeing that nobody raises him (the bet shows strength so people with a better but similar hand may be less willing to raise him) and throw in a little fold equity. When I do this, It's usually with a strong FD against players I've seen lay hands down. I personally like between 33% and 50% of the pot with these bets. I believe (and feel free to correct me) that this gives me a good balance between fold equity and implied odds by hiding the strength of your hand). I tend to see min bets from EP like this especially if they are giving great odds to any callers 4:1 or better).

    C) Slowplayed Monster: These are rough to recognize. It seems that I see these come from just about any position. I've seen people who use the min bets listed above do this to hide the true strength of their hands. I believe that these people are trying to look like they are bluffing so that somebody will rereaise them. Another good reason for doing this is to build a big pot that somebody will have a hard time getting away from on the turn or river. I like to do this from LP where it looks more like a bluff and then check the turn (if it's checked around to me) hoping somebody will make a big bluff at the river and I can stack them...sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

    My response to these min bets is to use their position and read from previous hands to put them on a range of hands (I tend to use the thought process outlined above) and if I believe I have them beat then I'll raise them up. With min bets, I tend to be a raise or fold type person.

    In the situation described above I would have folded the J9s even to a SA open raise from MP. Even if he doesn't have much of a hand, you have two other players calling stating that they do have a hand...If I did call (say my stack size warrents it or it's first couple levels and so even though it's a 3bb raise, it's still cheap) I would probably still let it go on the flop. My reasons you ask?

    A) You probably don't have much in the way of odds. Your current pot odds don't justify a call. The odds of hitting a backdoor flush or a inside str8 draw are so slim that you'd be hard pressed to justify the cost based on this. Implied odds aren't that great if you do hit. If he had a hand that would pay off your str8 or flush, he wouldn't have min bet...

    B) He may have been bluffing, but if he holds a A, K or any PP (how many hands from MP warrent a raise that don't include those cards) then he doesn't need to improve to beat you. If he doesn't improve, again, he's not going to pay you off if you do.

    C) By laying it down on the flop to a min bet (based on the above two reasons) you also get a table image as somebody who may or may not make loose calls from the BB but will lay those hands down to a bet on the flop. This can work for you when you hit the BB special and somebody wants to bluff into you...

    D) If the original PF raiser does have a hand he's going to come over the top of SB's min bet and you'll be put in a much tougher situation based on what happens after he raises. Say he raises to 1/3 pot and CO and SB call. You still have some great odds (not for the hand you have, but instead say you have TPMK) and now the pot is huge and it's more difficult to get away from. Combine that with the fact that CO and SB (by not going away) are saying that they still have a hand (if you're playing the J9 described above) then even while you may be getting some decent odds, you are probably still way behind in the hand.

    In conclusion, I guess each situation is different but with this many people in the hand, after the PF raise I'd say you were beat and between what's action has taken place and what (based on reads) is going to take place, this hand could get really expensive if you try to chase...
    Quote Originally Posted by Jason75
    I like trons' advice.
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  5. #5
    Check Raiser Fishodeath's Avatar
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    gah, ty guys. I think I knew that, just got flustered yesterday. I was thinking about how annyoing the probe bets were, and not what hands they could represent. That being said I think I'm gonna start using probe bets alot more, as they can put someone to a difficult decision w/out investing many chips. At least they did that to me.

  6. #6
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    The probe bet has little to do with your dilemma. You are out of position, holding a weak draw, with multiple opponents left to act (one of which raised preflop). I don't care what SB bets, I'm folding.

    If you had a strong draw (or of course a good made hand), then you're raising.

    If you had the same weak draw but had only one opponent left to act (or ideally none), then a bluff raise doesn't sound like a bad play.

    If you had a monster, then you might just call. But I don't see how you could call in your situation, and a raise is probably a bad idea more often than not.

  7. #7
    Check Raiser Fishodeath's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Method
    The probe bet has little to do with your dilemma. You are out of position, holding a weak draw, with multiple opponents left to act (one of which raised preflop). I don't care what SB bets, I'm folding.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fishodeath
    I know alot of this comes down to not playing maginal hands/draws out of positon, but the above situation is only an example.
    I appreciate your input but please read the whole post before replying...

  8. #8
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
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    I like trons' advice.

    Personally, if I see someone firing small probe bets at every pot, I'm going to start at least min raising them most of the time until I get reraised.

    Think of poker like basketball . . . . if I can get the ball down low to Shaq and score on you just about every time, why would I do anything other than that until you show that you can stop it?

    Those probe bets are getting the ball to Shaq . . . step in there and swat that ball away with a couple of raises.

    And don't let me catch you just calling with weak draws, or I'll have Beavis beat you. LOL
    Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
    Beavis68: You play poker.
    Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

  9. #9
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    I appreciate your input but please read the whole post before replying...
    I did. Did you read mine?

    I guess my question is how do you respond to a probe bet - in position?
    I said raise it.

    out of position? with made hand? weak draw? strong draw?
    I said fold your weak J9 draw and raise it with a good made hand or a strong drawing hand.

    As for your example, I just don't think it matters that the SB made a "probe bet" rather than a pot-sized bet or went all in or whatever. I'm check-folding the hand.

    Please don't call a gutshot SD with a backdoor FD a "marginal drawing hand".

  10. #10
    Banned pates's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fishodeath
    For example: say I have Js9s in the Big blind, a semi-aggressive player raises 3xbb from MP and the CO and the SB call so getting good odds I call. Flop comes 78Q with one spade. The sb puts out the minimum bet, I'm getting odds here to call with my gutshot and backdoor flush but I cant be sure I wont be raised from behind. I hate folding to such a small bet, but I also hate wasting a bet if someone behind me puts in a big raise.
    chances are you're getting great pot odds with this and would be with most other hands. Tbh a probe bet should never be minimum raise cus firstly it gives itself away to the player having the uncertainty of a good hand and secondly it will be called when there are draws out there or hands where someone has 7A or something and could catch trips or 2 pair. Probe bets should be about 1/4 - 1/5 of the pot.

    As for your dilema, you should ALWAYS call with a minimum bet on that kind of draw. the pot odds are good and if you do get reraised behind you then you wont have any trouble folding. Chances are there will be no reraise and so what if there is? it makes your lay down a lot easier

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