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Thread: Bad push?

  1. #1
    Poker Professional Pok 7's's Avatar
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    Default Bad push?

    Need opinions on this one...what do you do in this situation? It was a $2 MOB tourney, lost about 1200 in chips last few times I got involved in pots I was recently moved to this table and this was I think my second orbit at the table so there wasn't a large number of hands I saw played.

    I figured if he had the nuts he would've tried to suck more people in, his raise gave me the impression that he wanted the hand over then and there and was afraid of someone drawing to a flush.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed) converter

    MP1 (t3950)
    MP2 (t4210)
    MP3 (t1160)
    CO (t8330)
    Hero (t1755)
    SB (t2160)
    BB (t6380)
    UTG (t1995)
    UTG+1 (t1175)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with , .
    3 folds, MP2 calls t100, 1 fold, CO calls t100, Hero calls t100, 1 fold, BB checks.

    Flop: (t450) , , (4 players)
    BB checks, MP2 bets t300, CO raises to t600,...Here my thinking was he might have had something like QK, or AQ, and was using his stack to try and end the hand right there. If I fold I have an M of 11 and I had about 8-10 minutes till the blinds increase so I'd need to make a move soon. I was also thinking if I was against a flush I could possibly improve to a full house as well. Hero raises to t1655, BB folds, MP2 folds, CO calls t1055.

    Turn: (t4060) (2 players)

    River: (t4060) (2 players)

    Final Pot: t4060

    Results in white below:
    CO has As 9s (flush, ace high).
    Hero has 8c 8h (three of a kind, eights).
    Outcome: CO wins t4060.
    Last edited by Pok 7's; 04-16-2006 at 10:00 PM.
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  2. #2
    River Rat
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    Default

    He min raised.... that screams flush to me.

  3. #3
    HSM
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    Default

    I'd probably have pushed all-in as well.

  4. #4
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
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    Default

    Dude flops the flush when you hit your set, ick. . . . It's tough to put one opponent on a flush in this situation, but against two it becomes much more likely. Maybe they both have flush draws or CO has a queen he can't let go of, but it just seems like one of them does have it.

    Even so, it's a tough hand. Even if they have the flush . . . you're still about 38% to draw out your FH or Quads and beat them. You only need to get 1.6:1 odds, and if your all in is called you are actually getting 1.8:1. And you might have the best hand right now.

    Couple that with your medium M, and I'm getting closer to moving over the top all in. Against one opponent, this feels like a no brainer. But against two, I think I'd have to make the tough laydown.
    Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
    Beavis68: You play poker.
    Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

  5. #5
    PokerForums God
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    anyone else pushing/raising preflop?

    I dont like playing for set value vs with a stack that size.


    Flop sucks. 1300 in the pot, 600 for you to call with a set, I probably would hae pushed to, I fucking hate min raiser so I like to throw my chips at them.

  6. #6
    Chaser
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    Well, that'd be a tough laydown. Besides, you have a decent chance of winning the hand with a full house or quads. You have to give yourself the chance to double or triple up with your stack getting as low as it is.

    I think you basically needed to push there. Or, at least i would have to.

  7. #7
    Mike McDermott tightagressive's Avatar
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    usually i dont play for sets when i have such a small stack, i try to raise and steal the blinds. you are the button, why are you limping short stacked with a pair of 8's?

    sure, on the flop you did what anyone else would have done. on the flop i think its a definant push, because even if you arent winning you have a very good chance of winning with a paired board.

    the way i play poker preflop makes postflop play very easy for me. EVERY time you put chips in the pot, it should make sense why you are doing so! you limping in short stacked with a pair of 8's makes post flop play very hard unless you flop a set. look here, you flopped a set and you still dont know what to do!
    imo, a push preflop is a better play.

  8. #8
    Poker Professional Pok 7's's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tightagressive
    limping in short stacked with a pair of 8's makes post flop play very hard unless you flop a set. look here, you flopped a set and you still dont know what to do!
    imo, a push preflop is a better play.
    Actually I figured my post flop play is simple if I miss my set...I fold. The play probably would have been alot easier except I had to deal with the flop coming all the same suit....which doesn't happen very often.

    The thing I didn't like aboust the PF push is almost half the deck are overcards to me, which is why I was thinking I'd limp and see if I hit a set.

    Everything worked out just as I planned......with the exception of the flop coming all spades
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  9. #9
    Poker Hustler Jason75's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beavis68
    anyone else pushing/raising preflop?

    I dont like playing for set value vs with a stack that size.
    Good point beav . . . . I think against 2 limpers on the button the raise would be a great play here - though depending on table conditions I also might call once in a while.

    I also think you could raise less than all in here . . . . maybe raise it to 550 to go . . . . if reraised all in by the blinds or MP2 you could get away from this hand. I'd call the CO if he reraised all in after the rest folded.
    Jason75: Ok, you check and the button bets 400. Now what?
    Beavis68: You play poker.
    Jason75: Darn, I was really hoping for canasta. Maybe Gin.

  10. #10
    Mike McDermott tightagressive's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pok 7's
    Actually I figured my post flop play is simple if I miss my set...I fold. The play probably would have been alot easier except I had to deal with the flop coming all the same suit....which doesn't happen very often.

    The thing I didn't like aboust the PF push is almost half the deck are overcards to me, which is why I was thinking I'd limp and see if I hit a set.
    yeah, simple as letting go a fairly large portion of your stack at this point in the tournament. look, limping for a set isnt a bad play, its the better play in a lot of situations, but here you have to build chips. pay attention because this is a VERY important tournament aspect (even more so in sng's where you are literally racing to beat the blinds)


    2 limpers, plus the blinds= the pot was 350 before you entered.
    so assuming the sb completes, you are getting 4:1, with position, so far it looks like a decent spot to try to flop a set.
    until you look at it this way.
    You have 1755 before the hand starts.
    if you limp in, you will most of the time fold on the flop, decreasing your stack to 1600. you are 7.5:1 to flop a set, in lamens terms lets say 13%
    so 13% of the time you MIGHT double up, we dont know what the chance is. some of the time you steal the blinds, some of the time you win a decent pot.

    stealing
    if you steal this pot, your stack increases to 2100
    how often will we steal the pot with an all in move? at least 50% of the time, and thats at a loose table. and at that loose table we are called with low pairs, and A7 and stuff, thus making us more money.
    if we are called at an average table, not often will we be worse than a coin flip.
    (so would it be not fair to say when you are called, you DEFINANTLY double up more than just limping? I think so.)
    we have great odds for a coin flip (in which we actually have the better end of)
    our stack will 1700+1700, thats 3400+ the blinds which gives you 3750.

    so with stealing
    about 75% of the time we steal the blinds (a great result)
    25% of the time we are called, and a very fair share of that time we double up (a great result)
    maybe 10% of the time we are called, and lose the tournament

    with limping
    87% of the time we waste 100 chips of our 1700 stack
    13% of the time we have a very good chance at the t350 in blinds, we dont actually know how many more. we might actually lose the pot via your example, a flush or straight draw, getting outflopped, etc. we will not be able to fold our hand if a trouble card hits. (or a trouble flop, in this case)

    if you couldnt tell im not very good when it comes to math, but i know that if we had the real numbers or close to it, a push is DEFINANTLY +EV, limping might not be -EV but when you are short stacked and in a tournament situation, i think it becomes pretty clear what the play is.

    if anybody wants to add to this go ahead because i know somebody can do a better job..

    note: i would push this in a $2 mob tourny, but there are other strategic options that might be better in a tournament with tighter players, such as a raise of 3x the bb. key: you are in late position and should have the image of a tight player. also, if you had a bigger stack here, obviously you have more options as to how much to raise, if any, because a limp is certainly acceptable if you are at a loose table and a big stack.

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