Your stacks are too small now to make it a value bet. If you are going to bet this for value, and then fold to a CR, you are goign to need some seriously big stacks to do this. I'd have bet around $3 as a pure value bet. Small enough to probably get called, Big enough for you to extract some good profit from it, and still small enough that you won 't paint your self in a corner by it. BUt he will. He'll only have $2 left in his stack if he calls this, and if he plays, he's probably CRing here (another reason not to bet, but this is .10NL, so you never know what they got), and thats goign to force to to play with 8-1 odds to call this. Given 10% bluffing, you just half to assume your hand will win >3% of the time vs a non-bluff to make this all-in call +EV (Therefore if we have this player pegged as smart, we can reduce the % chance of a bluff to 0 since he knows we will be forced to call his allin).

So after all that, If you bet here, you need to be willing to call, and you need to know what types of hands he has been showing down to know if you CAN call a river Raise.


But, if I was playing. I would definatly hesitate, look at my PT stats and see what type of VPIP and Showdown numbers he has to decide. But vs a new player, no, I don't value bet here.

To me this is a situtation where you're only getting called if you're beat. I can't see someone calling on a double paired board with 2nd pair or worse.

im defintly checking the river because if he was chasing a flush he wont call a bet and if he was playing top pair he is going to put you all in