PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter

Hero (t1730)
UTG (t2695)
Button (t2835)
SB (t7740)

Preflop: Hero is BB with , .
UTG calls t200, Button calls t200, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t800) , , (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t400, UTG folds, Button raises to t1200, SB folds, Hero raises to t1530, Button calls t330.

The read I had on this guy was that he was playing 2 high cards (based on previous plays). I put him on about 25% pure bluff, 50% 2 high cards and 25% had a hand. Because of my chipstack, I figured I wouldn't get better odds to double up then this. I should also say that about 2 hands before this, this guy was a major chip leader and had made some bad moves to drop his stack. That's one of the reasons I put him on a 25% chance of pure bluff was because I figured he was tilting from his previous beats...Is this a good indicator to base a read on, or should I have gone the other way and given him a smaller chance he was bluffing based on previous hands?

Turn: (t3860) (2 players)

River: (t3860) (2 players)

Final Pot: t3860

Results in white below:
Hero has Td 5d (one pair, fives).
Button has Jh Qh (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins t3860.

I hope you comment before you look at the results, but please comment regardless...

I like the play... especialy if you have a straong read for 2 overs...

Only hand he could be upfront with are A7, 22 55 66+ and 2 overs + FD.

I would have pushed as well.

KJ

Before reading the results I figured the villian might have a small/mid pocket pair over 7 - so 88,99 or TT. I would expect JJ or larger to have raised pf for sure but small/mid pairs between 66-TT are just as well advised to limp in as to raise in.

You and KingJack must get busted a lot with these hands - huh? Good read on the villian as it turned out and lucky he didn't limp in with A-little. As for overly-conservative me, I'm not risking all-in on the bubble with a 2nd pair of 5s and probably would have check-folded to a large bet.

With only 4 left at the table I'm wondering why the Button didn't raise pf with 2 face cards after UTG checked into him?? I also wondered why he figured a large re-raise woud bluff you off the hand - what was your table image? Also a bluffer, or weak-tight? He had some reason to think you capable of laying down a real hand! Hmmm?

Originally Posted by Aces-o-8s

Before reading the results I figured the villian might have a small/mid pocket pair over 7 - so 88,99 or TT. I would expect JJ or larger to have raised pf for sure but small/mid pairs between 66-TT are just as well advised to limp in as to raise in.

You and KingJack must get busted a lot with these hands - huh? Good read on the villian as it turned out and lucky he didn't limp in with A-little. As for overly-conservative me, I'm not risking all-in on the bubble with a 2nd pair of 5s and probably would have check-folded to a large bet.

With only 4 left at the table I'm wondering why the Button didn't raise pf with 2 face cards after UTG checked into him?? I also wondered why he figured a large re-raise woud bluff you off the hand - what was your table image? Also a bluffer, or weak-tight? He had some reason to think you capable of laying down a real hand! Hmmm?

Well with an M of 5 or something, 2nd pair on a rag flop dosent look that bad when you can put your opponent on 2 over.

KJ

Originally Posted by KINGJACK

Well with an M of 5 or something, 2nd pair on a rag flop dosent look that bad when you can put your opponent on 2 over.

KJ

I ran this hand thru Pokerstove and got this for the results:

733,055,400 games 755.937 secs 969,730 games/sec

Board: 7h 5h 2s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 15.7486 % 15.33% 00.42% { random }
Hand 2: 22.9584 % 22.56% 00.40% { Td5d }
Hand 3: 15.7486 % 15.33% 00.42% { random }
Hand 4: 45.5444 % 45.45% 00.09% { QhJh }

So the Button was 2:1 favourite to win the hand over the 2nd pair on board. Of course our Hero didn't know the Button was not only on a 2 overcards semi-bluff but a flush draw semi-bluff as well; but his 2nd pair leaves 9 better pairs than his 5s and only 5 outs to improve. Even if the button was not on a flush draw, he had 6 outs to improve but as it was he had 14 outs giving him a coin flip to win but even with a loss, he was still in the game with over 1000 chips. His situation not only was favoured to win but even with a loss, he would still be alive. Our hero was a considerable underdog and busted out of the tourney if he lost - not my idea of a savvy play when he still had options! Of course everyone has to gamble a few times in a tourney and this may be one of those times for Trons - it's just not one of those times for me!

As for putting your opps on 2 overcards - this will occur approx 80% of the time with a pair of 5s so this isn't exactly a 'good read' as the most likely probability. Like I said in my first post, I was thinking the button might have a better pocket pair than 7s - i.e 88 - TT. A-7 was also a probability.

In any case, nice win - even if it was what it was.

Wooo....

1st of all... your equity in this particular case is not 22% but 47%... Remember the 2 other players are out of the hand.

2nd... it cost you 1150 to win 2750... more than 2:1

3rd... your oponent is probably not on 2 over + FD

4th... even if he have you beat, you still have a few outs if hes not on a set...

Lets say he's
10% of the time on a set
40% 2 over
35% a pair
15% 2 overs + a FD

its still a +EV move

And in this particular case its huge +EV

KJ

I don't remember what my table image was for this particular table, I know that I have shown the ability to lay down hands after betting on the flop and getting strong resistance. I may have done this at the table before this. I Know that I have been "caught" bluffing by betting half the pot...IE: Bet and just called then it gets checked down as I give up the bluff only to have my KQ (that didn't pair) lose to A-high...

While the numbers are interesting, my true thoughts were that I had an M of 5 after I posted the blind. I had a huge stack to my right (worst possible place for it) and this guy knew how to use his stack. I really figured that the chances of me picking up another hand to push with would be fairly slim. I figured with this hand that A) I had a pair (I would have pushed PF with a pair of 5's and a M of 5). B) I didn't see any of the other players haveing a 7 which imho gave me the best hand at the moment and C) Because of the board, I would probably be read as either a bluff or as having a small pair and I would get looked up by the FD or overcards. and D) I figured I had fold equity. We were on the bubble and everybody had tightened up.

Did I get lucky. Oh yeah. Was it a good move? Not sure about that. Once again it's my thought process I want corrected because that's where my biggest problem lies...with how I think about the hand as its happening...

As far as my read...I had trouble putting him on a mid PP mainly because there had been a lot of raising going on PF by just about everybody. I figured that everybody was raising Ax, any PP and any suited connector T9 or better...Since everybody limped, I removed those from my read (again, is this correct? these are usually the hands I'll raise on the bubble).

Originally Posted by Trons

As far as my read...I had trouble putting him on a mid PP mainly because there had been a lot of raising going on PF by just about everybody. I figured that everybody was raising Ax, any PP and any suited connector T9 or better...Since everybody limped, I removed those from my read (again, is this correct? these are usually the hands I'll raise on the bubble).

Correct? Well... correct do it Maybe, but correct to assume everybody do it... not sure!

Anyway... I would like to see othe opinion on that one. I like the play and I do it pretty often in the same situation and same reads...

KJ