ok, so the basic idea behind implied odds poker is that, if u kno u can make more money on the turn or the river, then it may actually be profitable to chase a draw on the flop even if ur not given the correct pot odds to do so right?
So given the scenario below, would it actually be profitable to make this play?
Lets say u limp in from LP with 89s. There are also 2 other limpers one from EP and one from MP. The pot goes unraised pf. Sb folds, BB checks. So 4 to the flop. Lets say this is a standard 25/50c cash game. So there is $2.00 in the pot.
Flop comes 7 10 2. So you have a OESD.
BB checks, EP limper bets 2 dollars. You put him on A10.
MP limper raises to 6 dollars. You put him on a set.
Lets say you have 50 dollars left at the table, MP has 45 dollars left.
You kno that if u call this and hit ur straight on the turn, u can stack MP for all his money.
Your chance of improving ur hand is about 16%, which is about 1/6.25
Therefore to calculate the implied odds, i do $6 x 6.25 = $37.5. So if MP has 45 dollars, and I kno i can stack him on the turn, would it actually be profitable to call this raise? Because if I encountered this situation 6.25 times, i would actually make 45-37.5= $7.5, plus whatever is already in the pot prior to MP's raise which is $4 (assuming the initial bettor will not re-raise or call). So if i encountered this situation 6.25 times, i would make 7.5+4 = $11.5?
Is this the right thinking about implied odds?
If this is the case, would it make chasing a OESD profitable in these type of situations?
Also how would i factor in the fact that MP will outdraw me on the river 20% to make his quads or full house? Would that fact that MP will outdraw ur straight 20% of the time, make this play not profitable?
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Thread: Implied Odds Poker for NL.
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04-10-2006 #1
Implied Odds Poker for NL.
Last edited by Eclipse86; 04-10-2006 at 12:15 AM.
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04-10-2006 #2
Ya - sorta but your calculatuions are a bit off.
8 outs for an OESD gives 4.7:1 odds with one draw (2.2 with two draws but that requires 2 draws for the price of one). With a $6 re-r the pot is only giving you 10:6 or 1.6:1 so you need implied odds of 4.7 - 1.6 = 3.1:1 on the turn to justify the call (breakeven). So you will need to draw $6 x 3.1 = $18.60 out of the MP on the turn (implied odds) to justify the call - assumming you made the str8 on the turn. Of course if you miss and have to try again on the river the cost of poker goes way up again!
Some/many pros will risk a draw on an OESD with 3:1 pot odds for each of the 2 draws - the approximate average of the 2 draws. In your example, the cost is too high and you are probably best advised to cut your losses at 50 cents rather than chase the implied odds at these prices.
As for a flopped set making full-house by the river the odds are 2:1 or 33% because the set has 9 outs to pair and 1 to quad. So even if you make your OESD, you will still lose over a 1/3 of the time.

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04-11-2006 #3
keep in mind if you hit your straight on the turn, mp has a good redraw for a boat on the river.
but yeah, there are situations where you man not have pot odds, but your read on your opponent dictates a call. most weak players telegraph AA/KK, (and as we know most weak players get these hands all in regardless of the board or action) so calls with draws can be profitable.
against a decent player who understands pot control and such, you are losing money.
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04-13-2006 #4Check Raiser
- Join Date
- Jul 2005
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When you do your math, you're saying that 1-5 of the time (when you hit your straight) you stack him. That's not true
4/5 of the time you pay the bet (-6)
4/25 you stack him (+45)
1/25 he stacks you (-45)
Total EV is +.60 You have to consider there's always some chance you hit and still lose (a HUGE pot usually!), and this makes marginal calls bad, and seemingly easy ones marginal.-You may not know this, but poker is a game of incomplete information.
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