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  1. #1
    Poker Expert Antneye's Avatar
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    Default Limit transition: the first 1000 hands

    It's been 1000 hands since I started playing low stakes limit Holdem. Through 1000 hands I am at 4.68 BB/100 (at .10/.20)

    I know 1000 is a small sample, but how am I doing?

    I have the roll to play higher and want to move up once I feel like I know what I am doing. I feel pretty comfortable. I find it to be a pretty mechanical game.

    Any thoughts?

  2. #2
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default

    As you said 1000 is a little low for analysis based on WR alone. Post up your VPIP, PFR, aggr (w/o PF), WSD and W$SD numbers... For .10/.20 your WR seems ok.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  3. #3
    Poker Expert Antneye's Avatar
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    Default

    VPIP: 24.06% (perhaps a little high?)
    PFR: 6.36% (seems right on target)
    aggr (w/o pf): 1.66 (not sure how good this is)
    WSD: 37.79% (Might be low as a product of slightly loose VPIP)
    W$SD: 44.83% (I think I am on target here)

    BB/100 4.62 (original post was wrong)

    Your rules have me at sLA-A

    One point I should make. BB/100 was hovering around 2 until a nice run over last 150 hands which included a big pot this afternoon where I spiked a set with P6's, ended up hitting a full house when board paired, and 2 people came to life and let me jam the pot...........was a beautiful feeling.

  4. #4
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    Default

    The fact that your Wr can be influenced by one pot should say something, And that something was originally spoken bu our old user, SampleSizeMan.

    VPIP is ok, maybe a touch high, but with a good run, or with strict SSH rules, that is withing the ballpark, Don't make any changes on this.

    PFR is good, maybe a point or two low. But given the limit, the chances to steal are reduced, therefore lowering your PFR. But, at this limit too, you should be raising hands like AJs (and possibly AJo) even with a few limpers before you. Pairs TT+ too. And capping too.

    Aggro is 'ok'. But at this limit, Mine hovered around 3-3.5. It's really bet or fold, there is usually enough dead money/players in the pot to give you the equity to be raising multiway pots with good draws.

    WSD looks good.

    W$SD. This is the one glaring number I don't like. This just may be a function of the number of hands and a couple beats, but you really want this number to be around 55%-60%. But the problem is, You really can't do much about this number without doing a whole paradigm shift. This number, like your WR, is a function of your overall play, just not one aspect like PFR and WSD can be. To be honest, you jsut need to balance W$SD with WSD to get a picture of where you're at. You want WSD to be around 35%, and W$SD to be around 55%(Higher is better, but you don't want to lower your WSD to get this up). You could jsut have a low W$SD due to some beats. Check back in at 2,500 and 5,000 hands and we'll take a look.
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  5. #5
    Poker Expert Antneye's Avatar
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    Marm,

    My W$SD may be a bit low due to something I took to heart in SSH. The concept of calling a river bet if pot is big even if you feel you are behind. Miller says its better to make a bad call then a bad fold which costs you a big pot. I have made a few crying calls along the way, and also had a few bad beats. Since hands are so few its tough to know. I agree that I need more hands for true analysis. Was just hoping for a quick feel on where i seem to be (which you kindy provided).


    I read something which said that if your W$SD is over 50% you are probably folding too often on the river. This ties into the concept above. Your thoughts?

  6. #6
    PokerForums God Marm's Avatar
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    I tend to try and fold my hands on the turn, not the river, saving me 2 bets, so My W$SD is up from there. But yes, I agree totally that saving a bet at the cost of a pot is dumb idea. But I try to balance the Pot odds vs my chances of actually winning the pot. MY MPMK may be worth a call vs a maniac, but vs a decent player, it's probably a losing call. But if you make 20 bad calls, and get that one big pot for 15 bets, youre still losing money. But as I said, variance is probably having an affect here.

    You cannot look at your W$SD alone. You need to balance it with the other stats. You can have some pretty wild VPIP and PFR and such, but if the W$SD is high, thats a good thing. It really needs to be compared to WSD, and getting a good balance between the two is good.

    As long as the rest of the numbers are good and aggressive, whats wrong with having a very high W$SD?
    Marm is back, maybe. Been off for 3 years. Rusty as Hell.

    Luck is a Residue of Design.

  7. #7
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    Default

    Obviously 1000 hands isn't much but some stats converge quite quickly.

    VPIP seems a little high, what kind of hands are you playing from what positions? Remember suited hands go up alot in value as the play becomes looser, while your non-suited big cards can become problematic. Are you cold-calling alot?

    When I play loose games I tend to play fairly passive myself since I play alot of drawing hands, and will bet them out with alot of equity with position otherwise I tend to call. 1.66 seems alright, maybe should be more around 2-2.5 to be optimum given the number of hands you are playing. How do you play your draws? How do you play your strong draws in bad position?

    WTSD seems quite high, 37% is way, way, way too much. And obviously you are seeing down alot of losers with your W$SD. I don't think that, that number is that low at these levels, since the pots will tend to be mutli-way most of the way and you'll have to make some crying calls. But are you over-calling with marginal hands alot?

  8. #8
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    My thoughts, 24.9% is on the edge of being too loose, but I ran at 25.6% for 4.5k hands and did well.

    PFR is very low, should be around 9%.

    Phyto and marm are right, you WTSD and WSD suck.

    Too high and too low - hmmm, would that correlate?

  9. #9
    Check Raiser growlers's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beavis68
    My thoughts, 24.9% is on the edge of being too loose, but I ran at 25.6% for 4.5k hands and did well.

    PFR is very low, should be around 9%.

    Phyto and marm are right, you WTSD and WSD suck.

    Too high and too low - hmmm, would that correlate?
    I really think when you move up in limits these problems that Beavis correctly point out should take care of themselves when you adjust, and you will need to to survive.
    Right now the tables are looser than they will be when you play 1-2 and 2-4. You are currently correctly limping after several limpers with suited connectors and small pocket pairs is my guess. And you can get away with limping first in with these hands at these levels. You will get punished at higher limits limping first in.

    At the higher limits there won't be as many limpers so you will be either folding these or raising them for fold equity value and stealing plays.
    This should get your VPIP down, your PFR up, and your won at showdown up.
    If you were playing 2-4 with your current numbers I can absolutely guarantee you will be a losing player. That won at showdown percentage will kill you, and that low number means you are playing too many hands too far.

    I would put in at least another 2000 hands conciously trying to play tighter and more aggressively preflop before you move up. Everybody has to play their own style, but I think a VPIP closer to 20% will help all you numbers considerably.
    Quote Originally Posted by Beavis68
    Quit playing poker.
    Quote Originally Posted by backdoor
    First of all you foul mouthed imbecile. I think the value of forums is immeasurible. Forums are the one place you can learn the game. Forums are a learning medium. The problem I find in forums are, your post. We are talking to hot headed, juveniles, who have no clue what they are doing. You have to weed through posts such as yours to get valuable information.

  10. #10
    Poker Expert Antneye's Avatar
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    Default

    Thanks guys............All good points. Heres my take on my numbers.

    I am actually only playing the hands as they are detailed in SSH. Playing very rote right now. I think there requirements are actually a little loose for my liking, but I am giving it a shot.

    I am not cold calling at all unless I have a premium hand and there are at least 3 in pot already. Mostly fold or re-raise depending on the hand.

    I don't love small suited connectors, but with how loose passive these games are I have been playing them even 1st in since hands are typically not raised and you can count on 4 -6 limpers per hand.

    I have actually had a pretty long run of decent limp hands vs premium raise hands which could be affecting my PFR % (as we said the stas are only based on 1K).

    I think the biggest leak I have right now is making marginal calls with weak draws on the turn. Early on I was making the mistake of calling a river bet with a marginal hand and people yet to act. This is a raise/fold spot and I was making poor calls. I have adjusted and hope to see some improvement.
    I also seem to be getting in trouble with overcards. Raising AK AQ etc and not improving. The NL player in me wants to keep firing. These players are so frigging passive that they will call you down with anything and never raise their prs so I keep on assuming I am ahead and they are drawing. I am trying to stop firing after the flop with these and instead play them like a weak draw, but I still get in trouble with them.
    I am going to stay at this level for another 1500 hands or so and I will re-post. If I improve my numbers I will jump to .25/50 and give it a go there.

    I have actually been running real hot all weekend and have my BB/100 close to 6 now. I shouldn't even say hot, just decent cards against some really bad players that let me value bet the snot out of them.
    Last edited by Antneye; 04-10-2006 at 05:21 AM.

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