SNG Hand

**Meldon** · 03-29-2006

I was in a $3 6 seat sng last night and the following hand came up.

There were 3 players left and we were all quite close in chips (approx 4000 each) the top two places paid out. Both of the other players had been fairly straightforward. The blinds were 150 / 300.

I was in the BB with 99 and both of the other players limped in.

I decided to make a move all in based on the fact that

1) I didn't really want to see a flop as any overcards would have been bad.
2) It was highly unlikely that either player had much of a hand based on the limps.
3) If called I would still be a favourite over all hands apart from TT, JJ QQ, KK , AA
4) If they folded my stack would increase by 25%
5) Next player out gets nothing

Was my thinking behind the push correct? With hindsight I'm thinking that a 1000 -1500 raise would have achieved the same, but without as much likliehood that they would fold. I think I wanted to put their tournamount life at risk on the bubble to force all, but the (unlikely) premium hands to fold.

**PJ of TheGame** · 03-29-2006

**** DISCLAIMER ****
There is a lot of conjecture and bullshit in this post, so feel free to completely disregard everything I say.
******************

Say you raise to 1200.

If they call without those premium hands, they're making a mistake, because the stacks don't allow much in implied odds. If they hit and they stack you it JUST gives them what they need, and if they miss they're in real trouble. The only problem is that a continuation bet on the flop with one caller will be another 1500 out of your stack, leaving you in trouble if they did hit the flop and your bet doesn't end the hand.

Going all-in will win 600 chips a lot of the time... but you're risking 4k. When you get called, say it's 70/20/10 that they have overs, an overpair, or an underpair... so when you do get called, you're going to be out of the tourney about half the time, and a 2-1 favorite half the time. That'll give you a cash EV of 3.3 when you win and 0 when you lose. When you DONT get called, your cash EV goes from about 2 buy-ins to maybe 2.2.

SO... Fold = +.2
Call and Win = +1.3
Call and Lose = -3
Call = -1.7

So you need them to fold nine times as often as they call for that to be a good move. Of course, if the pot was larger to start with, it'd be a great play, but I think it's risking too much to win too little here.

The raise will win 600 chips a good portion of the time, and when called, you'll win 1500 around 2/3 of the time, while losing 2700 or so 1/3 of the time. Which means a call isn't terrible. The 1/3 of the time you lose both bets when you get called reduces your cash EV from 2 to probably around .5, the 2/3 you win 1500 it gives you 45% of the chips in play which should be worth around 3, and when they fold it gets you around .2

So Call and win = +1
Call and lose = -1.5
No call = +.2

You would need them to fold only 3 times as often as they call for this to be a profitable play.

What does all this mean? Probably nothing lol. But I think the stack are just big enough that you can raise to get the limpers without going all-in, and still get a good return for it, while risking all your chips for such a small gain on the bubble is a poor move.

**Meldon** · 03-30-2006

Thankyou for the detailed response - that is very helpful.

Just one thing though - I started the hand with 4000 chips, but I was in the BB so before the cards are dealt I'm down to 3700 and due to them both limping the pot was actually 900.

Does this significantly change results? I'm not trying to defend my move - like you say I'm still risking a lot to win a little, but it's maybe a bit closer 4000 to win 600.

**Eclipse86** · 03-30-2006

good play. no one has showed 1010+ here so if ur called, then expect it to be a coinflip.

**PJ of TheGame** · 03-30-2006

When I was analyzing it, the 600 is the chips you win from the other players. There is 300 from your stack, but I considered that in the 4k you were risking. I should have phrased it differently, but it really doesn't change anything.

Eclipse... how small does the pot have to be before you don't think all-in is the best move? You're okay with putting 4k out there to win 600... how about 300? or 60? Should you just push every time it gets limped to you in the BB and you have a middle pair, no matter the stack sizes, pot size, or position? Not saying you're WRONG per se, but "if you get called it's a coinflip" doesn't take a whole lot of stuff into account.

**Jason75** · 03-30-2006

Here's what we need to know:

What types of players are you against?
What size of raises were winning pots uncontested?
How many pots were won with a raise of 2 limpers by the BB?
What's your table image?
Where is your money coming from? (Do you feel comfortable just outplaying them before the flop and stealing blinds, or do you feel like you need to win a big hand?)

On the face of it, without any info, I don't like the push here. Usually these things get into a certain rythm, where a raise or reraise of X amount will take down the pot, and anyone coming over the top has a hand they're ready to go to war with. Try and feel out that ebb and flow, and then in key spots swim against it. So for instance if you keep picking up pots by raising in the BB but not on the button (or visa versa), then at a key time you need to make a play that goes against this grain.

**Meldon** · 03-30-2006

Ok, both the players were relatively passive. They liked to see flops and bet their hands according to how hard they hit it. There wasn't a lot of raising and re-raising going on.

I was the most aggressive player left, but over the course of the tourney I had not been involved in many pots. I had been quite short stacked for the most part, but had fought my way back in the last two hands. The last two hands I had been dealt AJs and 88 and had re-raised (2x initial raise) small raises both times to take the pot down without showing my cards. I think this may have altered my tight table image and could explain why pushing "felt" right. I have to admit that I wasn't consciously thinking that at the time.

PJ - I know you are saying "to win 600 chips", but is it not to win 900? Although 300 came from my stack it was a forced bet and is no longer mine? Sorry, I'm just a bit confused and would like to understand how to do these sorts of evaluations so i could do them myself.

**KINGJACK** · 03-30-2006

Honestly, I dont like to push big hands late in a SNGs... especialy if I feel I can outplay my opponent on the further streets. And if I'm right, I think you say you had pretty good read on them on the flop.

However, I mostly play 10 man SNG and when we are down to 3, I'm already ITM. That way, I'm more willing to take small risks in order to win big pots VS taking the $$$ as soon as I feel I have the best hand.

Just my 2 cents...

KJ

**PJ of TheGame** · 03-31-2006

Yes Meldon, it is to win 900. I should have expressed it that way when I typed up my overly long post, but for some reason I didn't

It doesn't change my conclusions though... instead of going from 4k to 4600 you go from 3700 to 4600. Sorry about the confusion.

Your last post... you said that you had been able to actually raise them out of pots they'd allready opened... that's even more call for a regular raise. If they're passive they're more likely to fold to your bet, and if they decide to get cute they may make a bad call, or even better, push over the top with a weak holding (that you definantly have to call getting close to 2-1 against a player who hasn't shown strength). All-in is less likely to work, since they'll call with more raggedy overcards hands, and while you're a favorite, you'd rather not play a coinflip on the bubble without any overlay.

**Meldon** · 03-31-2006

Thanks to everyone for your input. As I said in my original post I had a feeling that a standard raise would have been the optimal play.

As it turned out PJ was correct in stating that ragged cards would call an all in. I was called by K5s and the board came down K655A

I tried to figure out why I was called (especially by a reasonable player) and could only come up with that he read me for a low pair or a complete bluff and fancied a bit of a gamble? I realise I made a (slight?) mistake - am I right in thinking that he made the bigger mistake or is their some rationale behind his call that I'm missing?

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