i fold this hand.. he did call a pf raise after all.. when he calls that pf raise im putting him on any pocket pair, AK, AQ.
when the flop hits and he check-calls, then i start getting worried, he could have hit a set, or he has an overpair like 88-JJ, and is afraid to bet at it. But most people in that situation would bet out with 88-JJ on a flop like that to see if u have 2 overcards, or an overpair.

If he had AK or AQ, he would not have called the flop bet. Unless he knows that u do continuation bets all the time, then he may have allowed himself to call with AK.

when that A hits the turn, and he bets at it hard.. it shows that hes not afraid of the ace. That right there, shows to me that he either hit his set on the flop and is therefore betting out on the turn because he has read u for AJ+ and therefore knows that he will get paid off on the turn, OR he check-called with AK on the flop and hit TPTK on turn.

If he had 88-JJ and just check-called u on the flop, then there is no way in hell this guy would start betting out once that A hits the turn.

so with that being said, i can narrow down his possible holdings to a set, or AK. Therefore im folding.





just checked results.. he called a pf raise with A3s, OOP? wow fuck OOP, just the fact that he called a raise with A3s is enough to label him a nub.....WTF. I would have thought better of 5/10 players, especially on UB. I guess that just goes to prove that there are fishies on every level!

lol, i avoided reading the results, but saw them in Eclipse's post

When he bets the pot there you definantly have to think he's got an A. Does it have you beat? The odds are that it does... 4579TJQK means 8 kickers that beat you, 236 are the only 3 that you beat. I would guess that he's most likely to have one of those and the 9 or T though, since higher he could have re-raised PF and if he hit a pair he should have bet/raised the flop. (I discount the set because of the lead on the turn... if you had a set and your opponent had AK and the lead in the hand, wouldn't you want to check-raise?)

I don't love this situation... but there's a lot of money in the pot, and the next raise will be the last one because of his chipstack. So I would raise enough to put him in. I'd expect him to fold the best hand a small % of the time (should he really like A9 here?) but a very small % because of the odds again, and I'd expect to win the pot about one in three times.

I don't play anything approaching 5/10 shorthanded NL though, so take that with a grain of salt.